标题: 2022.03.05 西方的制裁已经震撼了俄罗斯的金融体系 [打印本页] 作者: shiyi18 时间: 2022-3-4 06:13 标题: 2022.03.05 西方的制裁已经震撼了俄罗斯的金融体系 The bear’s market
Western sanctions have rocked Russia’s financial system
But the damage so far pales in comparison with the financial crisis of 1998
MAR 5TH 2022
The sanctions are unprecedented, but the results are grimly familiar. After Western countries froze Russia’s central-bank reserves and banned some of its banks from swift, a payment network, the prices of Russian assets plummeted.
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The steep sell-off represented the country’s fourth financial crisis in 25 years. In 1998 Russia defaulted on its debt and stopped propping up its currency. A decade later, amid a global financial crisis, Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Georgia. And in 2014 investors fled Russia again, following his annexation of Crimea.
Since Mr Putin began massing forces on Ukraine’s border, the rouble has lost 33% of its value against the dollar. The currency has fallen faster than in 2008 and 2014, although its decline so far is not as large as that of 2014. Russia’s financial woes are not yet as severe as in 1998, when the rouble plunged by 70%. But another debt default could be similarly devastating.
Mr Putin has spent years preparing for a financial stand-off with the West. Since 2015 the value of Russia’s central-bank reserves has risen by 71%, with most of the increase in the form of gold or Chinese yuan. The bank has also cut the share of its reserves held in America and France. Nonetheless, 70% remain in countries that are imposing sanctions, limiting Russia’s ability to support the rouble. Had the government not forced exporters to sell 80% of their foreign currency and banned foreigners from selling Russian assets, the rouble would have weakened even more.
The only silver lining for Russia is that the prices of its commodity exports have surged. European governments carved out energy sales from the sanctions, letting customers continue buying natural gas—whose spot price has more than doubled—from Russia. Revenue from oil and gas funded a third of Russia’s government budget in 2021, enough for two years of military spending at the pre-war rate.
In theory, energy firms should benefit from higher prices. Russia’s stockmarket has been closed this week. However, the value of the London-listed shares of four Russian oil and gas companies, whose domestic shares jointly make up a third of the Moscow exchange’s market capitalisation, fell by 97% before trading was suspended. Even if these firms do reap a windfall, investors do not expect it to wind up lining the pockets of foreign shareholders. ■
Sources: Bloomberg; Bank of Russia; Haver Analytics; The Economist
