标题: 2022.04.13 为什么俄罗斯军队在乌克兰失败？ [打印本页] 作者: shiyi18 时间: 2022-4-17 04:08 标题: 2022.04.13 为什么俄罗斯军队在乌克兰失败？ By Invitation | Russia and Ukraine
Andriy Zagorodnyuk explains why Russia’s army is failing in Ukraine
Ukraine’s former defence minister says Russia badly underestimated both Ukraine and the West
Apr 13th 2022 (Updated Apr 13th 2022)
ONE OF THE main lessons of Russia’s war in Ukraine is already clear: a formidable advantage in capabilities is no guarantee of success. Comparing the size of the two countries’ forces, most Western experts did not hold much hope for Ukraine. The fighting so far, however, has played out contrary to expectations.
Is it possible that Russia’s leadership is unaware of its army’s shortcomings? Like other authoritarian states, Russia does not have independent government oversight over its armed forces. In Western countries this oversight comes through parliament and a civilian ministry of defence, in an effort to ensure both a high state of readiness and an efficient use of funds. In Russia, the armed forces report directly to the president. The dysfunctionality of such a system has clearly led to the deterioration of military capabilities, even though the country has one of the largest military budgets in the world. Russian forces have already seen as many as one-third of the mission’s 120,000 ground troops either killed or wounded, showing that motivation, planning and civilian support are more effective than numbers.
Russia’s strategic mistake has been an overestimation of its own capabilities and an underestimation of Ukrainian ones. Their whole plan was based on one main scenario which involved suppressing Ukrainian air defences, multiple advances on key Ukrainian cities and a successful lightning attack on Kyiv. They failed to anticipate just how much resistance they would meet from Ukraine’s armed forces and from its civilians. Similarly, the Russians underestimated the West’s response: sanctions, Russia’s economic isolation and weapons supplies have all helped Ukraine.
Ukraine’s armed forces have also been trained well. They have advantages on their side. They know the country’s territory well and they have true motivation to fight. Soldiers are defending their homes and families. By contrast Russian forces have changed their operational objectives several times.
Reforms in the Ukrainian army in recent years are now proving their worth, too. Many were inspired by the organisational structure of Western forces. One of the most important changes Ukraine made was to elevate the role of non-commissioned officers—senior enlisted men, like sergeants, who supervise troops—in the manner of NATO armies. This allows knowledge and skills to be passed on to soldiers. The Western principle of “mission command” has also been adopted by Ukraine’s forces. It allows the officers in charge of small units greater power over decisions, rendering those units more agile. The Russians have stuck with a top-heavy Soviet organisational structure instead.
Ukraine has also seen the potential of the civilian population. In recent years Ukraine reformed its territorial defence system, encouraging civilians to form local resistance units. They were set up in many cities. Knowledgeable of the terrain and driven by patriotism, the units have challenged Russian troops on every corner, attacking armoured vehicles, support and fuel convoys. Unable to cover long distances without proper fuel supply, Russian forces were often stopped in the middle of nowhere as a result.
Technology and tactics have also played an important role. During eight years of war in Donbas Ukraine has mastered the use of artillery and other arms. In addition, Ukrainian forces acquired modern weapons, including portable anti-tank and anti-aircraft systems, procured with the help of Western partners such as America and Britain. Operating in small groups that are difficult to target from the air, they attacked Russian troops from different sides. Armed drones, bought from Turkey, have also wreaked destruction on Russian formations. Despite a military budget one-eleventh the size of Russia’s, Ukraine could score significant victories through local knowledge, impassioned commitment and civilian support.
Substantial number of volunteers are fighting in cyber forces and cyber groups defending Ukraine’s critical infrastructure from attacks. Despite relentless attacks, our mobile and internet networks still function. Citizens can still access banks and utilities as needed.
The poor state of Russian land forces has been another big surprise. Everyone expected high-tech equipment, professional troops and efficient supply lines. But an examination of captured vehicles revealed outdated communication devices and expired food rations.
Russia has not yet lost the war, however. Fierce fights have been breaking out every day. After failing elsewhere, the Russians now focus on the east of Ukraine. The destruction of Mariupol and damage to Chernihiv and Kharkiv has shocked the world. Terrible atrocities tell us that Russian leadership has decided to terrorise civilians as a tactic. Unable to outmanoeuvre the Ukrainian forces, Russia compensates with brutality. The next battle looms in the Donbas region. If the goal has been to coerce Ukrainians through fear it has not worked. Russia’s hostility only makes Ukraine angrier—and stronger.
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Andriy Zagorodnyuk was defence minister of Ukraine from 2019-20. He is the co-founder and chairman of the Centre for Defence Strategies, a security think-tank based in Ukraine.
