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The world in brief
Catch up quickly on the global stories that matter
Updated less than 1 hour ago (10:58 GMT+1 / 05:58 New York)
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Vladimir Putin warned Western countries to expect a “lightning-fast” response if they meddle in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “We have all the tools no one can boast of,” he went on. Given the ponderous pace of Russia’s current attack, it seems likely he was referring to his nuclear arsenal. Britain’s foreign minister promised to go “further and faster to push Russia out of the whole of Ukraine”. She also said the West would similarly come to the aid of Moldova if Russia were to invade there.
The secretary-general of the United Nations, António Guterres, visited Bucha, the site of Russian atrocities. He is due to meet Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, in Kyiv on Thursday, having met Mr Putin in Moscow on Wednesday. He emphasised the need for humanitarian corridors to Mr Putin, particularly out of the besieged city of Mariupol. Meanwhile in America, Joe Biden is slated to deliver an address on Ukraine’s plight. Earlier the White House said that Russia was “almost weaponising energy supplies” after it cut gas deliveries to Bulgaria and Poland.
Microsoft said that Kremlin-backed hackers have launched hundreds of cyber-attacks on Ukraine, seemingly timed to support Russia’s “kinetic military operations”, such as bombing communications infrastructure. They have also been spreading propaganda, for instance telling civilians in Mariupol that Ukrainian troops had abandoned them. Other analysts have expressed surprise at Russia’s previously lacklustre attempts at cyber-warfare.
Japan’s yen fell to a two-decade low against the dollar after the country’s central bank reiterated its commitment to keeping interest rates low and continuing its massive stimulus programme. At its latest meeting on Thursday, the Bank of Japan said policy interest rates would remain at “present or lower levels” despite inflation creeping towards its 2% target.
Meta’s share price rose by nearly a fifth in post-session trading after it reported that daily active users of Facebook increased by 4% year over year, to 1.96bn, in the most recent quarter. The social-media firm also booked its slowest quarterly sales growth since going public a decade ago—yet with revenues of $27.9bn, this was up by 7% year-on-year, and a kind of relief one day after disappointing figures from Alphabet.
Several parts of Beijing, including residential compounds, schools and office blocks, were locked down as officials sought to stem the spread of covid-19. Fifty new infections were reported on Thursday in China’s capital, after nearly 20 million samples were acquired in the first of three rounds of mass testing. By testing nearly the entire city, authorities are hoping to avert a full-scale lockdown like in Shanghai.
Unilever, the consumer goods giant, said it raised prices by more than 8% in the first quarter of 2022, reducing demand for its goods. It also warned that inflation would accelerate in the second half of the year. Meanwhile Sainsbury’s, a British supermarket, said inflation would cut it into its profits. Spooked investors drove the retailer’s share price down in response, despite a healthy first-quarter profit.
Fact of the day: 5.9m, the number of items blocked by Twitter in the first half of 2021, up from 1.9m in 2019. Read the full article.
A sharp but ephemeral slowdown in America
PHOTO: DAVE SIMONDS
As a snapshot of the American economy, it will be ugly. Data due out on Thursday will probably show that growth in the first quarter of 2022 slumped to an annual pace of about 1%. That is down from nearly 7% in the final quarter of 2021.
But snapshots can be misleading, not least when GDP is in focus. The oddities of growth accounting explain the slowdown. A build-up of retail inventories puffed up GDP late last year; a run-down of them subtracted from it early this year. Growth is expected to rebound to closer to 3% over the remainder of 2022.
The bigger worry is inflation, now running at a four-decade high. That makes it all but certain that the Federal Reserve will jack up interest rates in the coming months. One quarter of superficially weak growth will not change that.
Russia’s paper bear
PHOTO: PRESS ASSOCIATION
Russia’s army was supposed to be a world-beating force. After botching a war with Georgia in 2008 it was slashed in size, showered with cash and battle-hardened in eastern Ukraine and Syria. But its performance in Ukraine this year has been a shambles, prompting some Western officials to wonder if it is a paper bear. Russia’s invasion has been marred by poor planning and disgruntled soldiers. A lot of the army’s problems—such as endemic corruption, rigid logistics and the absence of a cadre of non-commissioned officers—are structural.
One senior NATO official warns that it is too early to draw sweeping conclusions. “The war is still going on,” he cautions. “Both sides are adapting.” But a retired European general says he is reminded of his visits to East Germany and Poland after the fall of the Berlin Wall. “We realised how shite the 3rd Shock Army was,” he says, referring to a much-vaunted Soviet formation. “We’ve again allowed ourselves to be taken in by some of the propaganda that they put our way.”
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Oil majors in the black
PHOTO: DPA
This time last year oil bosses were thirsty for good news after the covid-induced global slowdown inflicted multibillion dollar losses across their industry. But when oil majors ExxonMobil and Chevron report earnings on Friday, today’s high oil prices mean analysts are predicting profits at a level not seen since 2008. Brent crude, the international benchmark, averaged $98 per barrel over the first quarter of 2022, 18% higher than in the previous three months. TotalEnergies, which published results on Thursday, certainly benefited from the spike: its profit was three times higher than the previous quarter, prompting the company to boost share buybacks.
Will the good times endure? Oil prices may spike again if the war in Ukraine escalates. But rising interest rates in big economies could dampen demand, and thus profits. And the conflict comes with other challenges: Total recorded a $4.1bn writedown due to worries that sanctions will quash hopes of a big new Russian project. Such uncertainty makes investment in new extraction less appealing; increased cash flows may instead be ploughed into share buybacks and dividend payouts. Still, shareholders who clung on through the dark days of 2020 will at least see their patience rewarded.
Erdogan builds bridges in Saudi Arabia
PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES
Not long ago, a handshake between Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s president, and Muhammad bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, would have been unimaginable. But it will take place on Thursday, when Mr Erdogan arrives in Saudi Arabia. In 2018 relations between the two leaders, already strained, turned toxic after a Saudi hit squad murdered Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi dissident journalist, inside the country’s consulate in Istanbul.
Needs must, however. With an economy hobbled by 61% inflation, and in desperate need of a cash injection from abroad, Turkey is trying to build bridges with its former foe. Prince Muhammad relented only after Turkey transferred the trial of 26 Saudis accused of killing Mr Khashoggi to Saudi Arabia. The crown prince, widely believed to have ordered the murder, was never expected to answer for the crime. But any hope that the people who carried it out would see justice has now disappeared.
Keeping the NFL competitive
PHOTO: AP
How do you keep a sports league competitive? Bayern Munich have just won their tenth consecutive German Bundesliga, while Paris St Germain have taken the French title eight times in the past ten years. One potential solution could be to bring young players into teams through a draft system, as America’s National Football League has done since 1936.
In the NFL system, teams are ranked in reverse order based on their performance in the previous season. Those that fared worst get the first pick of emerging talent from the country’s colleges. For this year’s draft, which begins in Las Vegas on Thursday, the Jacksonville Jaguars get first dibs. The idea is not perfect. Teams are sometimes accused of intentionally losing games once out of contention for the playoffs in order to get a better draft ranking the following season. But the NFL is more competitive than many European leagues: 13 different teams have won the Super Bowl in the past 20 years.
Daily quiz
Our baristas will serve you a new question each day. On Friday your challenge is to give all five answers and tell us the connecting theme. Email your responses (and include mention of your home city and country) by 1700 BST on Friday to QuizEspresso@economist.com. We’ll pick randomly from those with the right answers and crown one winner per continent on Saturday.
Thursday: Who was the oldest child of Henry VIII?
Wednesday: Which Channel Island bans cars and has a parliament called the Chief Pleas?
The feelings of desperation and unhappiness are more useful to an artist than the feeling of contentment, because desperation and unhappiness stretch your whole sensibility.