2022.04.18 特朗普的支持者解释他们为什么相信大谎言

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Trump Supporters Explain Why They Believe the Big Lie
For many of Trump’s voters, the belief that the election was stolen is not a fully formed thought. It’s more of an attitude, or a tribal pose.

By Sarah Longwell
Man carrying a flag that says "Trump Won: Audit Every State."
Graeme Sloan / Bloomberg / Getty
APRIL 18, 2022, 6 AM ET
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About the author: Sarah Longwell is the executive director of Republicans for the Rule of Law, publisher of The Bulwark, and host of the Focus Group podcast.

Some 35 percent of Americans—including 68 percent of Republicans—believe the Big Lie, pushed relentlessly by former President Donald Trump and amplified by conservative media, that the 2020 presidential election was stolen. They think that Trump was the true victor and that he should still be in the White House today.

I regularly host focus groups to better understand how voters are thinking about key political topics. Recently, I decided to find out why Trump 2020 voters hold so strongly to the Big Lie.

For many of Trump’s voters, the belief that the election was stolen is not a fully formed thought. It’s more of an attitude, or a tribal pose. They know something nefarious occurred but can’t easily explain how or why. What’s more, they’re mystified and sometimes angry that other people don’t feel the same.


David A. Graham: Coup nation

As a woman from Wisconsin told me, “I can’t really put my finger on it, but something just doesn’t feel right.” A man from Pennsylvania said, “Something about it just didn’t seem right.” A man from Arizona said, “It didn’t smell right.”

The exact details of the story vary—was it Hugo Chávez who stole the election? Or the CIA? Or Italian defense contractors? Outlandish claims like these seem to have made this conspiracy theory more durable, not less. Regardless of plausibility, the more questions that are raised, the more mistrustful Trump voters are of the official results.

Perhaps that’s because the Big Lie has been part of their background noise for years.

Remember that Trump began spreading the notion that America’s elections were “rigged” in 2016—when he thought he would lose. Many Republicans firmly believed that the Democrats would steal an election if given the chance. When the 2020 election came and Trump did lose, his voters were ready to doubt the outcome.


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Some Trump voters looked at the numbers and couldn’t make sense of them. How could so many more people have voted in 2020 than in 2016? A man from North Carolina, when asked why he thought the election was stolen, said, “There was 10 million more votes for Trump in this last election than he got in 2016. You’re telling me that [Joe] Biden got that many?”

To the extent that Big Lie believers try to explain their skepticism over millions more people voting for Biden than for Trump, they often point to relative crowd sizes at rallies. As the man from North Carolina put it, “I personally went to Trump rallies that were filling stadiums, and then Biden can’t even fill a freaking library. Like, no, it’s not true. I don’t believe it. Don’t buy it.”

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Another common refrain is that the votes “flipped” in the middle of Election Night. Trump supporters went to bed thinking that their guy had won and then woke up to a different reality—which to them was startling and deeply suspicious. A woman from Georgia told me, “When I went to bed, Trump was so in the lead and then [I got] up and he’s not in the lead. I mean, that’s crazy.”

Read: Trump’s next coup has already begun

Long before Election Day, the media had warned about a “red mirage” and alerted Americans to the possibility that Trump would have a large lead on Election Night only to have it dissipate as mail-in ballots were counted. But if you were watching Fox News, you probably didn’t hear any of this. Instead, Trump, MAGA-friendly politicians, and conservative media outlets were priming voters to see a conspiracy.

Trump correctly assumed that the majority of the mail-in ballots that would be counted late at night would go to Biden. So he cast mail-in ballots as fraudulent almost by definition. The woman from Georgia told me that mail-in ballots were “a crock,” without elaborating further.

Attempts to set the record straight tend to backfire. When you tell Trump voters that the election wasn’t stolen, some of them tally that as evidence that it was stolen. A woman from Arizona told me, “I think what convinced me more that the election was fixed was how vehemently they have said it wasn’t.”


These voters aren’t bad or unintelligent people. The problem is that the Big Lie is embedded in their daily life. They hear from Trump-aligned politicians, their like-minded peers, and MAGA-friendly media outlets—and from these sources they hear the same false claims repeated ad infinitum.

Now we are at the point where to be a Republican means to believe the Big Lie. And as long as Republicans leading the party keep promoting and indulging the Big Lie, that will continue to be the case. If I’ve learned anything from my focus groups, it’s that something doesn’t have to make sense for voters to believe it’s true.

Sarah Longwell is the executive director of Republicans for the Rule of Law, publisher of The Bulwark, and host of the Focus Group podcast.



特朗普的支持者解释他们为什么相信大谎言
对于特朗普的许多选民来说，相信选举是被盗的并不是一个完全成型的想法。它更像是一种态度，或者说是一种部落的姿态。
作者：萨拉-朗威尔
男子手持写有 "特朗普获胜：审计每个州 "的旗帜。
Graeme Sloan / Bloomberg / Getty


2022年4月18日，美国东部时间上午6点

关于作者。萨拉-朗威尔是共和党人促进法治组织的执行董事，《堡垒》杂志的出版人，以及焦点小组播客的主持人。

大约35%的美国人--包括68%的共和党人--相信前总统唐纳德-特朗普无情地推动并被保守派媒体放大的大谎言，即2020年的总统选举是被盗的。他们认为，特朗普是真正的胜利者，他今天仍然应该在白宫。

我定期举办焦点小组，以更好地了解选民对关键政治话题的想法。最近，我决定找出特朗普2020年的选民为何如此坚持大谎言。

对许多特朗普的选民来说，认为选举被盗并不是一个完全成型的想法。它更像是一种态度，或者说是一种部落的姿态。他们知道发生了一些邪恶的事情，但不能轻易解释如何或为什么。更重要的是，他们对其他人没有同样的感觉感到神秘，有时还感到愤怒。


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正如一位来自威斯康星州的妇女告诉我的那样，"我真的无法用手指来形容它，但有些东西感觉不对"。一位来自宾夕法尼亚州的男子说，"有些东西看起来就是不对劲"。一个来自亚利桑那州的人说，"它的气味不对"。

故事的具体细节各不相同--是乌戈-查韦斯偷了选举？还是中情局？还是意大利国防承包商？像这样离奇的说法似乎使这种阴谋论更加持久，而不是更少。无论可信度如何，提出的问题越多，特朗普的选民对官方结果就越不信任。

也许这是因为多年来大谎言已经成为他们背景噪音的一部分。

请记住，特朗普在2016年开始散布美国选举被 "操纵 "的说法--当时他认为自己会输。许多共和党人坚信，如果有机会，民主党会偷走选举。当2020年大选来临，特朗普确实输了，他的选民已经准备好怀疑这个结果。

一些特朗普的选民看着这些数字，无法理解它们的含义。2020年的投票人数怎么会比2016年的多那么多？一名来自北卡罗来纳州的男子在被问及为何认为选举被盗时说："在上次选举中，投给特朗普的票数比他在2016年得到的票数多1000万。你是说，[乔]拜登得到了这么多？"

大谎言的信徒试图解释他们对投票给拜登的人比投票给特朗普的人多几百万的怀疑，他们经常指出集会上的相对人群规模。正如这位来自北卡罗来纳州的男子所说，"我亲自去参加特朗普的集会，体育场都坐满了人，而拜登连一个该死的图书馆都坐不下。就像，不，这不是真的。我不相信它。不要买它。"

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另一个常见的说法是，选票在选举之夜中间 "翻转 "了。特朗普的支持者在睡觉时认为他们的人已经赢了，然后醒来时发现了不同的现实--这对他们来说是令人吃惊和深深怀疑的。一位来自佐治亚州的妇女告诉我："当我上床睡觉时，特朗普是如此的领先，然后[我]起床时，他却不在领先位置。我是说，这太疯狂了。"

阅读。特朗普的下一场政变已经开始了

早在选举日之前，媒体就对 "红色海市蜃楼 "提出警告，并提醒美国人注意，特朗普在选举当晚可能会有很大的领先优势，但随着邮寄选票的统计，这种领先优势就会消散。但是，如果你在看福克斯新闻，你可能没有听到这些话。相反，特朗普、支持MAGA的政客和保守的媒体机构正在诱导选民看到一个阴谋。

特朗普正确地认为，在深夜统计的邮寄选票中，大部分会投给拜登。因此，他把邮寄的选票几乎定义为欺诈性的。这位来自佐治亚州的女士告诉我，邮寄选票是 "一派胡言"，但没有进一步说明。

试图澄清事实的做法往往会适得其反。当你告诉特朗普的选民选举不是偷来的，他们中的一些人就会把这当作选举被偷的证据。一位来自亚利桑那州的妇女告诉我，"我想让我更相信选举是被操纵的，因为他们多么强烈地说它不是。"


这些选民并不是坏人或不聪明的人。问题是，大谎言已经嵌入到他们的日常生活中。他们从与特朗普结盟的政客、志同道合的同龄人以及对MAGA友好的媒体那里听到了同样的错误说法，并从这些来源听到了无休止地重复。

现在，我们正处于这样一个阶段：成为一名共和党人就意味着相信大谎言。只要领导该党的共和党人继续宣传和纵容大谎言，情况就会继续如此。如果说我从我的焦点小组中学到了什么，那就是有些东西不一定非得有道理，选民才会相信它是真的。

萨拉-朗威尔是共和党人促进法治组织的执行董事，《堡垒》杂志的出版人，以及焦点小组播客的主持人。