2022.07.29 习近平警告乔-拜登

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Xi Jinping, China’s president, warned Joe Biden against “interfering” with Taiwan, saying that “those who play with fire will perish by it”, according to Chinese state media. Their call lasted more than two hours, and included discussion of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—and plans to meet face-to-face. Sino-American relations have become trickier with the prospect of Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the House of Representatives, paying a visit to Taiwan.

Russia launched missiles at a military installation near Kyiv—its first attack on Ukraine’s capital in weeks. Russian missiles also struck Kropyvnytskyi, in the centre of the country, killing five people. Ukrainian forces meanwhile stepped up efforts to retake Kherson, in southern Ukraine, where Russian forces are now “virtually cut off”, according to Britain’s defence ministry.

Germany reported stagnant GDP figures for the second quarter of 2022; it is set to be the worst economic performer among G7 nations this year. Germany’s outsize dependence on Russian gas has stalled economic growth and created the threat of rationing energy this winter. Germany’s results stood in sharp contrast to France’s: the French economy grew by 0.5% in the second quarter.

Viktor Orban, the prime minister of Hungary, said that he expects to reach a deal with Russia for additional gas supplies by the end of the summer. The country intends to buy an extra 700m cubic metres of gas, on top of the 4.5bn it already receives. Mr Orban has consistently opposed European sanctions of Russian gas as a response to Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine.

Jack Ma is to cede control of Ant Group, the Chinese fintech giant he founded in 2014, according to the Wall Street Journal. Mr Ma, also the founder of Alibaba and perhaps China’s most recognisable businessman, fell out of favour with the Communist Party as it worried that his companies had accumulated too much power. Mr Ma largely disappeared from public view after criticising the party in 2020.

Standard & Poor’s downgraded Pakistan’s outlook, from “neutral” to “negative”, joining the other big ratings agencies. The Pakistani rupee plumbed a new low, shedding 1.3% to land at 236 to the dollar, as high commodity prices bit into its foreign-exchange reserves. With external debt of $250bn and reserves of barely $9bn, Pakistan could be in line for a Sri Lankan-style crisis.

Britain’s only gender-reassignment unit is to close following a damning report into its operations. The Tavistock clinic was accused of being too quick to rush children onto puberty blockers and of failing to explore its patients’ mental-health problems. Kids with gender dysphoria are to be sent to new regional centres, which will be required to have stronger links with mental-health services.

Fact of the day: 31%, the share of Americans who say the economy is their most important issue. Read the full story.


Ukraine’s grain sets sail

PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES
A ship packed with Ukrainian grain is is readying to leave Odessa or a nearby Ukrainian port, perhaps as early as Friday. It would be the first to leave the port under an agreement brokered last week by António Guterres, the UN’s secretary-general, and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s president.

The deal has survived despite a Russian missile strike on Odessa’s port on July 23rd, one day after it was signed. A co-ordination centre in Istanbul, staffed by officials from Russia, Turkey, Ukraine and the UN, will inspect ships entering and leaving Ukrainian ports to ensure they do not carry weapons. Ukraine may have to clear some of the mines it planted in its own waters, to prevent an amphibious invasion, to create corridors for cargo ships.

The deal may ease a global food crisis intensified by the grain blockade. But uncertainty abounds. The costs of insuring shipments through the Black Sea have spiked, as companies fret about Russian attacks. And Russia could still—literally—torpedo the deal.

America revs up its industrial policy

PHOTO: EYEVINE
The CHIPS and Science Act, a bill aimed at building up America’s technological muscle, bringing chip manufacturing back to the country and countering China, has had a tortuous path. A version was first proposed in 2020. But this week, it finally sailed through votes in the Senate and the House. On Friday President Joe Biden is expected to sign it into law.

The bill allocates about $52bn to the semiconductor industry, providing subsidies to manufacture chips in America. A separate $200bn will go towards scientific research, particularly in cutting-edge fields such as artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing.

There are plenty of sceptics about the potential impact. America’s advantage in the semiconductor industry lies in design, not manufacturing, but the legislation is focused on the latter. Managing such a huge infusion of cash into the sciences will also be a challenge. But given America’s political polarisation, Congress’s ability to agree on such a big initiative is remarkable in itself.

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Rocketing profits at ExxonMobil

PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES
ExxonMobil, an American oil firm, is expected to unveil its best quarterly financial results in at least 25 years on Friday. Its profits for the second quarter could shoot up to $18bn, more than double the figure it posted in the previous three months. Two factors are boosting the company’s fortunes. First, Russia’s war in Ukraine has led to a crunch in refined products like petrol and diesel. That has increased ExxonMobil’s refining margins by as much as $4.6bn. Second, higher global oil and gas prices will increase profits by up to $3.3bn.

But there might be trouble ahead. Sky-high profits for energy firms have triggered a political backlash: more governments may follow Britain’s lead in imposing windfall taxes. And elevated prices could eventually reduce demand, for example by spurring faster adoption of electric vehicles. As industry veterans say, the best cure for high prices is high prices.

Airbnb checks out of China

PHOTO: ALAMY
Few foreign internet services work in China. The country has its own array of super-app businesses and the government has restricted much of the competition, blocking foreign social-media sites such as Facebook and Twitter. But Airbnb, an accommodation-rental site, thought it could crack the market when it launched in 2016.

For a while it did, quickly picking up users by offering localised services on Chinese platforms. Yet revenues from China remained minuscule, accounting for about 1% of business in recent years. The Silicon Valley-based company was also occasionally rocked by controversy when minority groups, such as Uyghurs, were blocked from renting rooms. It finally called it quits in May, prompted by the government’s “zero-covid” policy, which has virtually halted foreign tourism. Friday is the last day users can book stays in China: from Saturday onwards they will be unable to. Airbnb joins a growing Western exodus. LinkedIn, a professional networking group, and Kindle, Amazon’s e-book service, have also ditched China over the past year.


Improving HIV prevention

PHOTO: AP
For years, abstinence and condoms were the only ways to prevent HIV infections. A daily pill of tenofovir and emtricitabine was later approved for high-risk people; it prevents people from contracting HIV, even if exposed. But last year American regulators approved a new regimen: injections of cabotegravir every two months. In trials in Africa, the drug was 89% more effective at preventing acquisition of the disease than the daily pill among women at high risk. Ahead of the International AIDS Conference, which begins in Montreal on Friday, the World Health Organisation has released new guidelines recommending cabotegravir.

Treatment, too, has improved. For years, people with HIV/AIDS had to take several pills a day to stay healthy and reduce the chances of transmission. In December European authorities approved the use of infrequent cabotegravir and rilpivirine injections as a treatment; the injections are as effective as pills in suppressing viral loads but much less burdensome. For people affected by HIV, science has delivered some relief.

Daily quiz

Our baristas will serve you a new question each day this week. On Friday your challenge is to give us all five answers and, as important, tell us the connecting theme. Email your responses (and include mention of your home city and country) by 1700 BST on Friday to QuizEspresso@economist.com. We’ll pick randomly from those with the right answers and crown one winner per continent on Saturday.

Friday: What was the codename of the Apollo 11 lunar module?

Thursday: Which animated characters are the “rescue rangers” who are the focus of a new Disney film?

What would life be if we had no courage to attempt anything?

Vincent van Gogh



据中国国家媒体报道，中国国家主席习近平警告乔-拜登不要 "干涉 "台湾问题，他说 "玩火者必自焚"。他们的通话持续了两个多小时，包括讨论俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵--以及计划进行面对面的会谈。由于众议院议长南希-佩洛西有可能访问台湾，中美关系变得更加棘手。

俄罗斯向基辅附近的一个军事设施发射了导弹--这是几周来俄罗斯对乌克兰首都的首次攻击。俄罗斯的导弹还袭击了该国中部的克罗皮耶夫尼茨基，造成5人死亡。与此同时，乌克兰军队加紧努力夺回乌克兰南部的赫尔松，据英国国防部称，俄罗斯军队现在在那里 "几乎被切断"。

德国报告了2022年第二季度停滞不前的GDP数据；它将成为今年G7国家中经济表现最差的国家。德国对俄罗斯天然气的过度依赖使经济增长停滞不前，并造成了今年冬天能源配给的威胁。德国的结果与法国形成鲜明对比：法国经济在第二季度增长了0.5%。

匈牙利总理维克多-欧尔班（Viktor Orban）表示，他希望在夏季结束前与俄罗斯达成额外天然气供应的协议。该国打算在已经收到的45亿立方米天然气的基础上，再额外购买7亿立方米的天然气。欧尔班先生一直反对欧洲对俄罗斯天然气的制裁，作为对弗拉基米尔-普京在乌克兰战争的回应。

据《华尔街日报》报道，马云将让出他在2014年创立的中国金融科技巨头蚂蚁集团的控制权。马云也是阿里巴巴的创始人，也许是中国最知名的商人，但由于共产党担心他的公司积累了太多的权力，所以他失去了青睐。在2020年批评了共产党之后，马先生基本上从公众视野中消失了。

标准普尔将巴基斯坦的评级从 "中性 "下调至 "负面"，加入其他大型评级机构的行列。巴基斯坦卢比跌至新低，下跌1.3%，降至236美元，因为大宗商品价格高涨侵蚀了其外汇储备。巴基斯坦的外债为2500亿美元，储备仅有90亿美元，可能会出现斯里兰卡式的危机。

英国唯一的性别重置机构在一份关于其运作的严厉报告之后将被关闭。塔维斯托克诊所被指责过于急于让孩子们服用青春期阻断剂，并且没有探索病人的心理健康问题。患有性别障碍的儿童将被送往新的区域中心，这些中心将被要求与心理健康服务机构有更强的联系。

今天的事实。31%的美国人说经济是他们最重要的问题。阅读全文。


乌克兰的粮食起航

照片。GETTY IMAGES
一艘装满乌克兰粮食的船正准备离开敖德萨或附近的一个乌克兰港口，也许最早在周五。根据联合国秘书长安东尼奥-古特雷斯和土耳其总统雷杰普-塔伊普-埃尔多安上周促成的协议，这将是第一批离开港口的船只。

尽管在协议签署的第二天，即7月23日，俄罗斯对敖德萨的港口进行了导弹袭击，但该协议仍得以维持。伊斯坦布尔的一个协调中心由来自俄罗斯、土耳其、乌克兰和联合国的官员组成，将检查进出乌克兰港口的船只，确保它们不携带武器。为了防止两栖入侵，乌克兰可能不得不清除它在自己水域埋设的一些水雷，以便为货船创造走廊。

该协议可能会缓解因粮食封锁而加剧的全球粮食危机。但不确定因素很多。由于公司担心俄罗斯的攻击，通过黑海运输的保险费用已经飙升。而且，俄罗斯仍然可以--从字面上讲--破坏该协议。

美国加强其工业政策

照片。EYEVINE
芯片和科学法案》（CHIPS and Science Act）旨在建立美国的技术力量，将芯片制造业带回美国，并对抗中国，该法案走过了曲折的道路。一个版本在2020年首次提出。但本周，它终于在参议院和众议院的投票中顺利通过。周五，乔-拜登总统预计将签署该法案成为法律。

该法案向半导体行业拨款约520亿美元，为在美国制造芯片提供补贴。另有2000亿美元将用于科学研究，特别是在人工智能和先进制造业等尖端领域。

有很多人对其潜在的影响持怀疑态度。美国在半导体行业的优势在于设计，而不是制造，但立法的重点是后者。管理如此巨大的现金注入科学领域也将是一个挑战。但考虑到美国的政治两极化，国会能够就这样一个重大举措达成一致，本身就很了不起。

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埃克森美孚公司的利润直线上升

照片。GETTY IMAGES
美国石油公司埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)预计将在周五公布其至少25年来的最佳季度财务业绩。其第二季度的利润可能高达180亿美元，比前三个月公布的数字高出一倍多。有两个因素促进了该公司的财富。首先，俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争导致了汽油和柴油等精炼产品的紧缺。这使埃克森美孚的炼油利润增加了46亿美元之多。其次，全球石油和天然气价格上涨将使利润增加多达33亿美元。

但前面可能会有麻烦。能源公司的高额利润已经引发了政治反弹：更多的政府可能会效仿英国，征收暴利税。高昂的价格最终可能会减少需求，例如通过刺激更快地采用电动汽车。正如业内资深人士所说，高价格的最好治疗方法就是高价格。

Airbnb退出中国

照片。阿拉米
很少有外国互联网服务在中国运作。中国有自己的一系列超级应用业务，政府限制了大部分竞争，封锁了Facebook和Twitter等外国社交媒体网站。但住宿租赁网站Airbnb在2016年推出时，认为自己可以打开市场。

有一段时间，它确实做到了，通过在中国平台上提供本地化的服务，迅速获得了用户。然而，来自中国的收入仍然微不足道，近年来只占业务的1%左右。当维吾尔族等少数民族群体被禁止租房时，这家位于硅谷的公司也偶尔会受到争议的冲击。在政府 "零容忍 "政策的推动下，该公司最终于5月宣布退出，该政策几乎停止了外国旅游。周五是用户可以在中国预订住宿的最后一天：从周六开始，他们将无法预订。Airbnb加入了越来越多的西方人出走的行列。在过去的一年里，专业网络团体LinkedIn和亚马逊的电子书服务Kindle也已经放弃了中国。


改善艾滋病预防

照片。美联社
多年来，禁欲和避孕套是预防艾滋病毒感染的唯一方法。后来，一种由替诺福韦和恩曲他滨组成的日常药片被批准用于高风险人群；它可以防止人们感染艾滋病毒，即使是暴露在外面。但是去年美国监管机构批准了一种新的治疗方案：每两个月注射一次卡博特拉韦。在非洲的试验中，这种药物在防止高危妇女感染该疾病方面比每天服用药片的效果要好89%。在周五于蒙特利尔开始的国际艾滋病大会之前，世界卫生组织已经发布了新的指导方针，推荐使用卡博特格拉维。

治疗也得到了改善。多年来，艾滋病毒/艾滋病患者不得不每天吃几片药来保持健康并减少传播的机会。12月，欧洲当局批准使用不频繁的卡博特拉韦和利比韦林注射液作为治疗手段；注射液在抑制病毒负荷方面与药片一样有效，但负担要小得多。对于受艾滋病毒影响的人来说，科学已经提供了一些缓解。

每日问答

本周，我们的咖啡师将每天为您提供一个新问题。在星期五，你的挑战是给我们所有的五个答案，同样重要的是，告诉我们连接的主题。在北京时间周五17点前，将你的回答（包括提及你的家乡和国家）发到 QuizEspresso@economist.com。我们将从那些有正确答案的人中随机挑选，并在周六为每个大洲选出一名获胜者。

周五。阿波罗11号登月舱的代号是什么？

星期四。哪些动画人物是迪斯尼新电影中的重点 "救援队员"？

如果我们没有勇气去尝试任何事情，生活会是什么样子？

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