20241118 2025年的未来世界

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未来世界| 2025年的未来世界
汤姆-斯坦达奇（Tom Standage）眼中2025年的十大趋势
未来世界》编辑的一封信

插图：Tim McDonnagh 蒂姆-麦克唐纳

2024年11月18日

作者：汤姆-斯坦达奇（Tom Standage），《未来世界 2025》编辑

联合国将 2025 年定为量子科技年似乎是恰当的。因为就像薛定谔的猫（在量子思想实验中）在一个封闭的盒子里既活着又死了一样，2025 年一直徘徊在美国大选结果所决定的两种截然不同状态的叠加中。现在，投票箱已经打开，全世界都知道该期待哪个 2025 年：唐纳德-特朗普重返白宫的那个 2025 年。随着不确定性的消除，以下是未来一年值得关注的十大主题。

1. 美国的选择。
特朗普的全面胜利将影响到从移民、国防到经济和贸易的方方面面。他的 “美国优先 ”政策将使朋友和敌人都质疑美国联盟的稳固性。这可能导致地缘政治调整、紧张局势加剧甚至核扩散。

2. 选民期待变革。
总体而言，在 2024 年史无前例的选举浪潮中，现任政党表现糟糕。一些政党被淘汰出局（如美国和英国）；另一些政党被迫联合（如印度和南非）；还有一些政党被迫同居（如台湾和法国）。因此，2025 年将是充满期望的一年。新领导人能否兑现承诺？谦卑的领导人会改变吗？如果不能，动荡可能随之而来。

3. 更广泛的混乱。
特朗普先生可能会推动乌克兰与俄罗斯达成协议，并让以色列在加沙和黎巴嫩的冲突中放手一搏。美国更加注重交易的立场和对外国纠葛的怀疑态度将鼓励中国、俄罗斯、伊朗和朝鲜（“混乱四国”）制造麻烦，并鼓励地区大国进行更多的干涉，就像在危机四伏的苏丹所看到的那样。但目前还不清楚美国是否会在台湾或南海冲突中挺身而出对抗中国。

4. 关税前景。
目前，美国与中国的竞争将表现为贸易战，因为特朗普先生将实施限制措施并提高关税--包括对美国的盟友。随着贸易保护主义的加剧，中国企业正在海外扩张，以绕开贸易壁垒，并开拓全球南部的新市场。从墨西哥到匈牙利，中国企业都在建造工厂，它们另有打算。
2025 年将是充满期待的一年。新的领导人能否实现这一目标？

5. 清洁技术蓬勃发展。
中国政府鼓励太阳能电池板、电池和电动汽车的蓬勃出口，以抵消国内经济的疲软。结果，由中国主导的清洁技术蓬勃发展，太阳能电池板和电网存储的采用率超过了预期。世界很快就会知道全球排放量是否已经达到峰值。

6. 通货膨胀之后。
富裕国家的央行行长们已经庆祝了通货膨胀的失败。现在，西方经济体面临着新的挑战：通过增加税收、削减开支或促进增长来减少赤字。许多国家还可能不得不增加国防预算。痛苦的经济选择迫在眉睫。在美国，特朗普先生的政策将使情况变得更糟：高额的进口关税可能会阻碍经济增长，并重新引发通货膨胀。

7. 老问题。
美国刚刚选出了有史以来最年长的当选总统。世界各国领导人和他们的人口都在白发苍苍。关于政治领导人年龄限制的讨论会越来越多。与此同时，中国正在老龄化世界中寻找经济机遇。与此相反，在中东部分地区，青年人口激增，加上工作岗位短缺，带来了不稳定的风险。

8. 人工智能的紧要关头。
这是商业史上最大的赌博：尽管企业仍不确定如何使用人工智能，而且采用率很低（尽管许多工人可能只是在秘密使用），但用于人工智能数据中心的资金已超过 1 万亿美元。随着 “代理 ”系统能力的提高和人工智能药物的出现，投资者会失去勇气，还是人工智能会证明其价值？

9. 旅行烦恼。
不仅是货物，人员的全球流动也面临越来越多的摩擦。冲突正在扰乱全球航空。欧洲正在增加新的边境检查，其无国界的申根系统正在崩溃。2025 年，对 “过度旅游 ”的反弹将减弱，但从阿姆斯特丹到威尼斯，许多城市出台的限制措施仍将存在。

10. 生活充满惊喜。
暗杀未遂、对讲机爆炸、巨型火箭被筷子夹住，2024 年的一个教训就是要期待不可思议的事情发生。2025 年会发生哪些听起来不可思议的事情呢？我们的 “不确定因素 ”版块提供了一些值得关注的因素，包括毁灭性的太阳风暴、失传古籍的发现，甚至还有另一场全球大流行病。
要驾驭未来，预测不可能发生的事情会有所帮助。我们希望《2025 年的未来世界》能成为您未来一年的有用指南，无论有什么惊喜等待着您。


The World Ahead
| The World Ahead 2025
Tom Standage’s ten trends to watch in 2025
A letter from the editor of The World Ahead
Portrait of Tom Standage
Illustration: Tim McDonnagh
Nov 18th 2024

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By Tom Standage, Editor, The World Ahead 2025

IT SEEMS APPROPRIATE that 2025 has been designated the year of quantum science and technology by the United Nations. Because like Schrödinger’s cat, which (in a quantum thought-experiment) was both alive and dead at the same time inside a closed box, 2025 has hovered in a superposition of two very different states, defined by the outcome of America’s election. Now the ballot boxes have been opened, the world knows which 2025 to expect: the one where Donald Trump returns to the White House. With that uncertainty resolved, here are ten themes to watch in the coming year.

1. America’s choice.
The repercussions of Mr Trump’s sweeping victory will affect everything from immigration and defence to economics and trade. His “America First” policy will have friends and foes alike questioning the solidity of America’s alliances. This could lead to geopolitical realignments, heightened tensions and even nuclear proliferation.


2. Voters expect change.
More generally, incumbent parties did badly in 2024’s unprecedented wave of elections. Some were chucked out (as in America and Britain); others were forced into coalition (as in India and South Africa); others were pushed into cohabitation (as in Taiwan and France). So 2025 will be a year of expectations. Can new leaders deliver what they promised? Will humbled leaders change? If not, unrest may follow.

3. Broader disorder.
Mr Trump may push Ukraine to do a deal with Russia and give Israel a free hand in its conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. America’s more transactional stance and scepticism of foreign entanglements will encourage troublemaking by China, Russia, Iran and North Korea (the “quartet of chaos”) and more meddling by regional powers, like that seen in crisis-hit Sudan. But it is unclear whether America would stand up to China in a conflict over Taiwan or in the South China Sea.

4. Tariffying prospects.
For now, America’s rivalry with China will manifest itself as a trade war, as Mr Trump imposes restrictions and ramps up tariffs—including on America’s allies. As protectionism intensifies, Chinese firms are expanding abroad, both to get around trade barriers and to tap new markets in the global south. So much for decoupling; Chinese firms, building factories from Mexico to Hungary, have other plans.

2025 will be a year of expectations. Can new leaders deliver?
5. Clean-tech boom.
China’s government has encouraged booming exports of solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles to offset a weak domestic economy. The result is a Chinese-led clean-tech boom, with adoption of solar panels and grid storage outstripping forecasts. And the world will soon learn whether global emissions have peaked.

6. After inflation.
The rich world’s central bankers have celebrated the defeat of inflation. Now Western economies face a new challenge: reducing deficits, by increasing taxes, cutting spending or boosting growth. Many may also have to increase defence budgets. Painful economic choices loom. In America, Mr Trump’s policies will make things worse: hefty import tariffs could hamper growth and reignite inflation.


7. Age-old questions.
America has just picked its oldest-ever president-elect. World leaders are greying, along with their populations. Expect more discussion of age limits for political leaders. China, meanwhile, is looking for economic opportunities in an ageing world. In parts of the Middle East, by contrast, a booming youth population, coupled with a shortage of jobs, risks instability.

8. Crunch time for AI.
It’s the biggest gamble in business history: more than $1trn is being spent on data centres for artificial intelligence (AI), even though companies are still not sure how to use it and adoption rates are low (though many workers may simply be using it in secret). Will investors lose their nerve, or will AI prove its worth, as “agentic” systems become more capable and AI-developed drugs emerge?

9. Travel troubles.
The global movement of people, not just goods, faces increasing friction. Conflict is disrupting global aviation. Europe is adding new border checks, and its borderless Schengen system is fraying. The backlash against “overtourism” will diminish in 2025, but restrictions introduced by many cities, from Amsterdam to Venice, will remain.

10. Life of surprises.
With assassination attempts, exploding walkie-talkies and giant rockets being captured by chopsticks, one lesson of 2024 was to expect the unbelievable. What implausible-sounding things could happen in 2025? Our “Wild cards” section offers a selection to watch out for, including a devastating solar storm, the discovery of lost ancient texts—and even another global pandemic.

To navigate the future, it can help to anticipate the unlikely. We hope you will find The World Ahead 2025 a useful guide to the coming year, whatever surprises await.