2022.03.18现在是囤积镍币的好时机

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TECHNOLOGY
It’s a Great Time to Hoard Nickels
The Ukraine crisis has shaken up prices—and sent some Americans scrambling for coins.

By Saahil Desai
An illustration of a crate filled with nickels
Getty; The Atlantic
MARCH 18, 2022
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In economic-speak, the Ukraine crisis has been a “supply shock.” In English, that means that in the United States you’ll now find record-high gas prices, liquor stores devoid of Russian vodka, and … uhh … Americans heading into their local banks and politely asking for hundreds of dollars in nickels.

Let me explain. Russia supplies more than 20 percent of the world’s high-quality nickel, which is a crucial component in everything from stainless steel to pipes to the batteries that power electric cars. But with Ukraine under siege, companies in the West have been wary of buying Russian nickel. This has increased demand for nickel from everywhere else, which, in turn, has bumped up its price on the London Metal Exchange. What happened next is as close to a Hollywood blockbuster as commodity finance can get: A Chinese businessman nicknamed “Big Shot,” who bet that nickel prices would fall, had to cover his mounting losses by buying back shares, shooting the stock somewhere into the exosphere. Within the span of 24 chaotic hours last week, the price of nickel rose 250 percent, forcing the London Metal Exchange to halt trading for the first time since 1985.


During all of this, of course—of course—some Americans found a roundabout way to make some money: hoarding nickels. Yes, the coin is worth just five cents, but the metal it contains—75 percent copper and 25 percent nickel—has long been worth more than that. According to Coinflation.com, a website that tracks the value of the metals in coins, the “melt value” of a single nickel currently stands at eight cents. Last week, during the height of nickelmania, it ratcheted all the way up to 16 cents. Actually melting down those nickels for profit is illegal, but that hasn’t stopped opportunistic investors from zigzagging between banks and credit unions to gather nickels, with the hopes of one day selling them off for more than five cents. Forget bitcoin and dogecoin; this small community of financial speculators is pouring money into real, physical coins.

Scooping up coins for their metal is, in fact, an age-old tradition. Five-cent nickels were first minted in the 1860s because Americans were squirreling away gold and silver coins during the Civil War. Over the past decade or so, a small but spirited subculture of prepper types has been hoarding nickels as a contingency plan against inflation Armageddon. According to Boomerang, by Michael Lewis, the hedge-fund manager Kyle Bass owns $1 million in nickels that he stores in a vault in Dallas.

Now that nickel prices have gone haywire, hoarding suddenly seems to have hit it big. In pockets across the internet, people are plotting ways to add to their nickel stashes and flaunting their hauls. On Reddit’s Wall Street Silver channel, users who call themselves “apes” (an apparent reference to silverback gorillas, because, you know, silver) are falling deep inside the nickel vortex. One post of a cardboard box plastered with $100 nickels is captioned with “I know a guy that works at a bank. He said he had one unopened box of nickels left ...” The top comment: “Like Charlie and the Chocolate Factory—you got the golden ticket.”


On Realcent.org, the OG forum for coin hoarders, where bitcoin enthusiasts get branded as “crypto-cultists,” all the new competition has been met with a swirl of exasperation, frenzy, and paranoia. “The teller said ‘everyone hates nickels,’” posted a user who claimed to have just snagged some coins from a local bank. “Not for long, HAHA.




技术
现在是囤积镍币的好时机
乌克兰危机使价格上涨，并使一些美国人对硬币趋之若鹜。

萨希尔-德赛报道
一张装满镍币的箱子的插图
Getty; The Atlantic
3月18日，2022年
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用经济术语来说，乌克兰危机是一种 "供应冲击"。用英语来说，这意味着在美国，你现在会发现汽油价格创下新高，酒类商店没有俄罗斯伏特加，以及......呃......美国人走进他们当地的银行，礼貌地要求提供数百美元的硬币。

让我解释一下。俄罗斯提供世界上20%以上的高质量镍，这是从不锈钢到管道到电动汽车电池的重要组成部分。但随着乌克兰被围困，西方国家的公司对购买俄罗斯的镍一直保持警惕。这增加了其他地方对镍的需求，这反过来又提高了其在伦敦金属交易所的价格。接下来发生的事情就像商品金融领域的好莱坞大片一样接近。一个绰号为 "大人物 "的中国商人，打赌镍价会下跌，不得不通过回购股票来弥补他不断增加的损失，将股票射入某处大气层。在上周24个混乱的小时内，镍的价格上涨了250%，迫使伦敦金属交易所自1985年以来首次停止交易。


在这一切中，当然--当然--一些美国人找到了一个迂回的方法来赚取一些钱：囤积镍币。是的，这种硬币只值5美分，但它所含的金属--75%的铜和25%的镍--长期以来一直比这个价值高。根据Coinflation.com，一个追踪硬币中金属价值的网站，一个镍币的 "熔化价值 "目前为8美分。上周，在镍币的高峰期，它一路飙升至16美分。实际上熔化这些镍币以获取利润是非法的，但这并没有阻止机会主义的投资者在银行和信用社之间穿梭，收集镍币，希望有一天能以超过5美分的价格出售。忘掉比特币和狗币吧；这个由金融投机者组成的小型社区正在将资金投入到真正的实物硬币中。

挖走硬币的金属，实际上是一个古老的传统。19世纪60年代首次铸造了5美分的硬币，因为美国人在南北战争期间把金币和银币藏起来了。在过去十年左右的时间里，一个小型但充满活力的预备者亚文化一直在囤积镍币，作为应对通货膨胀末日的应急计划。根据迈克尔-刘易斯（Michael Lewis）的报道，对冲基金经理凯尔-巴斯（Kyle Bass）拥有100万美元的镍币，他把这些镍币存放在达拉斯的一个保险库里。

现在，镍币价格已经失控，囤积行为似乎突然大行其道。在互联网的各个角落，人们正在策划如何增加他们的镍币储藏量，并炫耀他们的收获。在Reddit的华尔街白银频道，自称 "猩猩"（显然是指银背大猩猩，因为，你知道，白银）的用户正深陷镍的漩涡。一个贴满100美元硬币的纸箱的帖子的标题是："我认识一个在银行工作的人。他说他还有一盒未开封的镍币......" 最上面的评论。"就像《查理和巧克力工厂》--你得到了金票。"


在Realcent.org这个OG论坛上，比特币爱好者被打成 "加密货币崇拜者"，所有新的竞争者都被愤怒、狂热和偏执的情绪所包围着。"出纳员说'每个人都讨厌镍币'，"一位声称刚刚从一家当地银行抢到一些硬币的用户发帖说。"不会太久的，哈哈。