2021.11.17 加密货币的未来

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The World Ahead | The World Ahead 2022
Chris Dixon and Packy McCormick on the future of crypto
There’s more to crypto than currency and financial applications

Nov 8th 2021 (Updated Nov 17th 2021)

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By Chris Dixon: general partner, a16z, and Packy McCormick: founder, Not Boring Capital

Because of the success of bitcoin, the pioneering cryptocurrency launched in 2008, many people associate blockchains primarily with money and finance. But the applications of blockchains are much broader. Modern blockchains are fully programmable, like a pc or a smartphone. What makes them unique, however, is that they let programmers write code that can make strong commitments about how that code will behave in the future. Bitcoin’s code guarantees that there can only ever be 21m bitcoins, that network participants cannot spend the same coin twice, plus a host of other commitments that established trust in the currency.

The year ahead will show that blockchains can support a lot more applications beyond money and finance. In 2022 decentralised services will chip away at big tech companies’ stranglehold on the internet. A cluster of new “web3” technologies, such as tokens, will dramatically improve the digital economics of creators, technologists and small businesses.


Ethereum, released in 2015, was the first blockchain to fully generalise the ideas that began with Bitcoin. Ethereum can run programs (known as smart contracts) that enable developers to build almost any application. Services built on Ethereum can offer advanced functionality that rivals the services offered by centralised tech firms, while removing rent-seeking and central points of control. Ethereum also enabled the creation of tokens—software-based units of value that grant users ownership rights and even revenue streams.

Blockchains also made possible the automation of traditional financial functions such as lending or trading. The first Ethereum apps to gain widespread adoption were decentralised finance (DeFi) apps like Compound, Maker and Uniswap. In DeFi, financial functions are handled by fully automated protocols that are owned and operated by decentralised communities instead of centralised companies.

DeFi attracted the money and attention needed to bootstrap the growth of web3, but web3 is about more than money and crypto. During 2021 we’ve seen entrepreneurs expand the ideas that started with bitcoin and DeFi to games, media, marketplaces and even social networking. At the core of this expansion was a new concept, non-fungible tokens (nfts). These are blockchain-based records that uniquely represent items of digital media, including art, videos, music, games, text and code. nfts contain documentation of their history and origin and can have code attached to do almost anything (a popular feature is code that ensures that the original creator receives royalties from secondary sales).

Blockchains can support a lot more applications beyond money and finance

Early headlines about nfts focused on speculation and money. Mike Winkelmann, a digital artist known as Beeple, raised eyebrows and rolled eyeballs when he sold an nft at Christie’s for $69m. In the six months from April to November 2021, $7.2bn-worth of nfts changed hands on OpenSea, the largest nft platform. But the real story is that nfts are a key building-block for a new wave of web3 services that radically alter the economics of the internet, redistributing value and control from tech giants back to users, developers and small firms.

Web3 applications are wresting market share from centralised incumbents. Braintrust, a web3 talent marketplace that incentivises participants with tokens, works with employers including Deloitte, nasa, Nike and Porsche. And it is gaining ground on public competitors such as Upwork.

Music is also ripe for disruption. Streaming services have created the opportunity for artists to reach millions of fans through an awkward marriage with record labels. Web3 platforms such as Audius, Sound.xyz and Royal will create the opportunity for artists to make millions of dollars by creating new revenue streams that aren’t mediated by record companies. Web3-based competitors to large social networks like Facebook and Twitter will also emerge. Unlike the incumbents, they will share revenue with the creators that fuel their growth.

Let the new internet flourish
In 2022, it will become clear to more people what many in the web3 world already know: the best way to rein in big tech companies is through competition, not regulation. Already, there are policymakers in Washington who appreciate that web3 is about much more than cryptocurrency or speculation. In the coming year more leaders, in America and in other democracies, will realise the need for sensible regulation that encourages responsible innovation while also allowing entrepreneurs to build the next generation of the internet.

Chris Dixon: general partner, a16z, and Packy McCormick: founder, Not Boring Capital ■

This article appeared in the Finance section of the print edition of The World Ahead 2022 under the headline “There’s more to crypto than currency”



我的经济学家
未来的世界｜2022年的世界
克里斯-狄克逊和帕基-麦考密克谈加密货币的未来
加密货币不仅仅是货币和金融应用，还有更多的内容

2021年11月8日 (2021年11月17日更新)

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作者：Chris Dixon：a16z的普通合伙人，和Packy McCormick：Not Boring Capital的创始人

由于2008年推出的先锋加密货币--比特币的成功，许多人将区块链主要与货币和金融联系起来。但区块链的应用要广泛得多。现代区块链是完全可编程的，就像电脑或智能手机。然而，它们的独特之处在于，它们让程序员编写的代码可以对该代码在未来的行为方式做出强有力的承诺。比特币的代码保证永远只能有2100万个比特币，网络参与者不能两次花费同一个硬币，再加上其他一系列的承诺，建立了对货币的信任。

未来一年将显示，区块链可以支持货币和金融之外的更多应用。2022年，去中心化的服务将削去大型科技公司对互联网的控制。一组新的 "web3 "技术，如代币，将极大地改善创作者、技术专家和小企业的数字经济。


2015年发布的以太坊，是第一个将始于比特币的理念完全概括的区块链。以太坊可以运行程序（被称为智能合约），使开发者能够建立几乎任何应用程序。建立在以太坊上的服务可以提供先进的功能，与中心化的科技公司提供的服务相媲美，同时消除寻租和中心控制点。以太坊还使代币的创建成为可能--基于软件的价值单位，授予用户所有权，甚至是收入流。

区块链还使传统金融功能的自动化成为可能，如借贷或交易。第一个获得广泛采用的以太坊应用程序是分散的金融（DeFi）应用程序，如Compound、Maker和Uniswap。在DeFi中，金融功能由完全自动化的协议处理，这些协议由分散的社区而不是中心化的公司拥有和运营。

DeFi吸引了引导web3发展所需的资金和关注，但web3的意义不只是金钱和加密货币。在2021年，我们看到企业家们将从比特币和DeFi开始的想法扩展到游戏、媒体、市场甚至社交网络。这种扩展的核心是一个新的概念，即不可伪造的代币（nfts）。这些是基于区块链的记录，唯一代表数字媒体项目，包括艺术、视频、音乐、游戏、文本和代码。Nfts包含其历史和起源的文件，并可以附加代码来做几乎任何事情（一个流行的功能是确保原创作者从二次销售中获得版税的代码）。

区块链可以支持货币和金融以外的更多应用

关于Nfts的早期头条新闻集中在投机和货币上。被称为Beeple的数字艺术家Mike Winkelmann在佳士得拍卖会上以6900万美元的价格出售了一个nft，引起了人们的关注和眼球的翻滚。在2021年4月至11月的六个月里，价值72亿美元的nfts在最大的nft平台OpenSea上易手。但真正的故事是，Nfts是新一波Web3服务的关键基石，它从根本上改变了互联网的经济状况，将价值和控制权从科技巨头手中重新分配给用户、开发者和小公司。

Web3应用程序正在从集中式的在位者手中夺取市场份额。Braintrust是一个用代币激励参与者的web3人才市场，与德勤、美国国家航空航天局、耐克和保时捷等雇主合作。它正在获得对公共竞争对手如Upwork的支持。

音乐的颠覆时机也已经成熟。流媒体服务为艺术家创造了机会，通过与唱片公司的尴尬联姻来接触数百万的粉丝。Audius、Sound.xyz和Royal等Web3平台将为艺术家创造机会，通过创造不受唱片公司调解的新收入流，赚取数百万美元。基于Web3的Facebook和Twitter等大型社交网络的竞争对手也将出现。与现任者不同，他们将与推动其发展的创作者分享收入。

让新的互联网蓬勃发展
2022年，更多的人将清楚地了解到web3世界的许多人已经知道：控制大型科技公司的最佳方式是通过竞争而不是监管。华盛顿的一些政策制定者已经意识到，web3的意义远远超出了加密货币或投机。在未来的一年里，美国和其他民主国家的更多领导人将意识到需要合理的监管，鼓励负责任的创新，同时也允许企业家建立下一代的互联网。

克里斯-迪克森：a16z公司的普通合伙人，以及帕克-麦考密克：不无聊资本公司的创始人■。

这篇文章出现在《2022年世界展望》印刷版的金融部分，标题是 "加密货币比货币更重要"