2022.03.29 如果白俄罗斯获得自由，欧洲将更加安全

shiyi18

By Invitation | Russia and Ukraine
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya argues that Europe will be safer if Belarus is free
The country’s opposition leader says a Russian puppet in Minsk can always threaten Ukraine

Mar 29th 2022 (Updated Mar 29th 2022)

DER TO help Ukraine, it’s time for the West to learn from the mistakes it made in Belarus in 2020. I feel a sense of déjà vu watching Volodymyr Zelensky desperately calling for the world’s attention. He does so even as peaceful cities are being destroyed by missiles launched from my own country, Belarus. This is only possible because when Alexander Lukashenko, a dictator who has run Belarus for more than 27 years, claimed victory over me in a rigged election in our country less than two years ago, the West did too little. Vladimir Putin props up his regime. The West’s weakness has led to Belarus becoming an accomplice in the most brutal European conflict since the second world war.

Many world leaders I meet are trying to treat the symptoms instead of curing the disease of dictatorship. This war is not just between Russia and Ukraine. It is a battle between autocracy and democracy, as Joe Biden rightly stated in his recent speech in Warsaw. It is a war between a world ruled by law and another controlled by ruthless violence.


Dictators learn from each other and follow the same pitiless logic. Just as Mr Putin could not stand seeing Ukraine prosper as an independent country, Mr Lukashenko could not stand the sight of hundreds of thousands Belarusians peacefully marching for their rights in 2020. Some 30,000 of them have been detained and thousands have been imprisoned on political charges. My friend, Maria Kalesnikava, has been sentenced to 11 years in prison. My husband, Siarhei Tsikhanouski, has been sent away for 18 years.

The impunity of Mr Lukashenko’s regime only encourages repression in Belarus. Today any protest is like a revolt in a gulag. This month, for example, a teacher was arrested in class for wearing a blue and yellow ribbon in her hair. The wrong Instagram post can lead to a prison sentence of many years.

The West has been slow to realise the seriousness of the threat the Belarusian dictatorship poses, and to react to it. The first serious sanctions on the regime were introduced in June 2021—ten months after the stolen election and the brutal repression that followed. This allowed Mr Lukashenko’s regime to fall back on Russia and regroup. Now the regime is paying off the debt by providing our territory, infrastructure and fuel to Russian troops in a bloody war against Ukraine. Forget the hijacking of the Ryanair flight and the Belarus-Poland migrant crisis—how trifling last year’s problems seem now. Had Mr Lukashenko been stopped in 2020, none of that would have happened.

The fate of both Belarus and Ukraine is at stake. Belarus can't be free without a free Ukraine and vice versa. The 674-mile long border between them means that a Russian-controlled autocrat in Minsk, our capital, can always threaten Ukrainian stability. Dismantling the dictatorship in Belarus would help Ukraine win the war. And there could be no stronger punishment for the Kremlin than seeing Russia share a border with a democratic Belarus. Furthermore a Ukrainian victory would make democracy in Belarus far more likely to emerge.


Europe is more secure if Belarus is free. To avoid pressure, Mr Lukashenko will try to coax and cajole Western leaders as his fortunes change. He is already threatening to station Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus. (He removed the constitutional provision that had previously made Belarus a non-nuclear country in a sham referendum in February.) Mr Lukashenko may even eventually pose as a peacemaker. Don't be fooled: you can't plead for peace while bombing your neighbours.

Whatever the West's reaction, Belarusians will continue fighting for themselves. The democratic movement that opposes the regime has transformed into an anti-war movement which grows by the day. Our citizens are waging a phenomenal underground resistance. Hackers and partisans are sabotaging railways daily, cutting Russian supplies and stalling the movement of Russian troops and arms. Just 3% of Belarusians support our military involvement in the war on Russia’s side, according to Chatham House, aBritish think-tank. We're hearing reports of discontent among our country’s elites and from those serving in the armed forces.

I urge Western leaders to learn from their past errors. I see why they are cautious when faced with Mr Lukashenko and Mr Putin: nobody wants to fight a bully. This is a rational approach. But it fails with dictators. Instead, I call on you to stop recognising the regime in Minsk as legitimate or legal. Do not exchange ambassadors; suspend Belarus from international organisations and ban it from major events, such as sports competitions. Check that existing sanctions have no loopholes and monitor their implementation. Belarus must not become a giant loophole itself through which Russian businesses can circumvent Western sanctions. Ensure that Mr Lukashenko cannot avoid responsibility for the crimes he has already committed.

Dictators can't be re-educated. But I hope the democratic world can learn to act fast and acknowledge when its future and its security are at stake. I am convinced that dictators can't survive a united democratic response and unrest at home. They've chosen the wrong side of history. We must ensure Belarus and Ukraine fall on the right side of it.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is the leader of Belarus’s democratic movement.





应邀参加｜俄罗斯和乌克兰
斯维亚特拉娜-齐哈努斯卡娅认为，如果白俄罗斯获得自由，欧洲将更加安全
该国的反对派领导人说，明斯克的俄罗斯傀儡总是能威胁到乌克兰

2022年3月29日 (2022年3月29日更新)


为了帮助乌克兰，现在是时候让西方从2020年在白俄罗斯犯下的错误中吸取教训了。看着沃洛迪米尔-泽伦斯基（Volodymyr Zelensky）拼命地呼吁世界关注，我有一种似曾相识的感觉。他这样做的时候，和平的城市正在被从我的国家白俄罗斯发射的导弹摧毁。之所以能这样，是因为不到两年前，当统治白俄罗斯超过27年的独裁者亚历山大-卢卡申科（Alexander Lukashenko）在我国一场被操纵的选举中声称战胜了我时，西方国家做得太少。弗拉基米尔-普京为其政权提供支持。西方的软弱导致白俄罗斯成为第二次世界大战以来最残酷的欧洲冲突的帮凶。

我遇到的许多世界领导人正试图治疗症状，而不是治疗独裁的疾病。这场战争不仅仅是俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的战争。它是一场专制与民主之间的战斗，正如乔-拜登最近在华沙的演讲中正确指出的那样。这是一场由法律统治的世界和由无情的暴力控制的另一个世界之间的战争。


独裁者相互学习，遵循同样的无情逻辑。正如普京先生无法忍受看到乌克兰作为一个独立国家的繁荣，卢卡申科先生也无法忍受看到数十万白俄罗斯人在2020年为自己的权利和平游行。他们中约有3万人被拘留，数千人因政治指控被监禁。我的朋友Maria Kalesnikava被判处了11年的监禁。我的丈夫Siarhei Tsikhanouski已被送走18年。

卢卡申科先生的政权不受惩罚，只会鼓励白俄罗斯的镇压。今天，任何抗议都像是古拉格集中营里的叛乱。例如，这个月，一名教师在课堂上被逮捕，因为她的头发上戴着蓝黄相间的丝带。错误的Instagram帖子可以导致多年的监禁。

西方国家在意识到白俄罗斯独裁政权所构成的威胁的严重性以及对其作出反应方面一直很缓慢。对该政权的第一次严重制裁是在2021年6月--在选举被盗和随后的残酷镇压之后十个月。这使卢卡申科先生的政权得以倒向俄罗斯并重新集结。现在，该政权正在通过向俄罗斯军队提供我们的领土、基础设施和燃料来偿还债务，对乌克兰进行血腥战争。忘掉瑞安航空航班被劫持和白俄罗斯-波兰移民危机吧，去年的问题现在看来微不足道。如果卢卡申科先生在2020年被阻止，这些都不会发生。

白俄罗斯和乌克兰的命运都处于危险之中。没有一个自由的乌克兰，白俄罗斯就不会自由，反之亦然。它们之间674英里长的边界意味着，在我们的首都明斯克，一个由俄罗斯控制的独裁者总是可以威胁到乌克兰的稳定。瓦解白俄罗斯的独裁政权将帮助乌克兰赢得战争。而对克里姆林宫来说，没有什么比看到俄罗斯与民主的白俄罗斯共享边界更强烈的惩罚了。此外，乌克兰的胜利将使白俄罗斯的民主更有可能出现。


如果白俄罗斯是自由的，欧洲就更安全。为了避免压力，卢卡申科先生将在他的命运发生变化时试图哄骗和劝说西方领导人。他已经威胁要在白俄罗斯部署俄罗斯的核武器。(他在2月份的一次虚假公投中取消了此前使白俄罗斯成为无核国家的宪法条款）。卢卡申科先生甚至可能最终冒充和平使者。不要被愚弄：你不能一边恳求和平，一边轰炸你的邻居。

无论西方的反应如何，白俄罗斯人将继续为自己而战。反对该政权的民主运动已经转变为反战运动，并与日俱增。我们的公民正在发动一场惊人的地下抵抗。黑客和游击队员每天都在破坏铁路，切断俄罗斯的供应，阻挠俄罗斯军队和武器的流动。根据英国智库查塔姆研究所（Chatham House）的数据，只有3%的白俄罗斯人支持我们站在俄罗斯一边参与战争。我们听到了我们国家的精英们和那些在武装部队中服役的人的不满报告。

我敦促西方领导人从他们过去的错误中吸取教训。我明白为什么他们在面对卢卡申科先生和普京先生的时候会很谨慎：没有人愿意和一个恶霸战斗。这是一种理性的做法。但对独裁者来说，这种方法是失败的。相反，我呼吁你们停止承认明斯克的政权是合法的，或者说是合法的。不要交换大使；暂停白俄罗斯在国际组织中的地位，禁止它参加重大活动，如体育比赛。检查现有的制裁是否有漏洞，并监督其实施。白俄罗斯本身不能成为一个巨大的漏洞，俄罗斯企业可以通过这个漏洞规避西方的制裁。确保卢卡申科先生不能逃避对他已经犯下的罪行的责任。

独裁者是无法被重新教育的。但我希望民主世界能够学会快速行动，并在其未来和安全受到威胁时予以承认。我深信，独裁者无法在团结一致的民主反应和国内的动荡中生存。他们选择了历史的错误一面。我们必须确保白俄罗斯和乌克兰倒在它的正确一边。

斯维亚特拉娜-齐哈努斯卡娅是白俄罗斯民主运动的领导人。