1857.11 金融风暴

shiyi18

BUSINESS
The Financial Flurry
“The bowels of the banks, with us the great money-lenders, close with the snap and tenacity of steel-traps; and then a general panic, or want of commercial confidence, brings on a paralysis of the domestic exchanges, and wide-spread bankruptcy and ruin.”


Library of Congress
NOVEMBER 1857 ISSUE
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“Break, break, break,
On thy cold, gray crags, O Sea!”
“I remember a day,” said a friend not long since, “a day as sweet, calm, cool, and bright as that whose wedding and funeral song the poet sings in the same verse, when I stood upon the white sea-coast near Naples, and looked far away across the blue, silent waters, and up the gray, flowery steeps, to where the towering cone of Vesuvius cleaves the skies. It was in the spring-time; luxuriant nature seemed to have nothing to do but to grow and bloom, and the huge mountain itself was profoundly at peace, — smiling a welcome, apparently, to the delicate bean-plants and wild vines which clambered up its sides, and wearing a light curl of smoke, like a gay coronal, around its brow. The bay was alive with red-capped fishermen, each one intent on fishing up his inverted brother below him; the beach was thronged with women, who chattered cheerfully over their baskets; and along the road scampered soldiers in bright uniforms, as if they had no conceivable purpose in life but to bathe in that clear sunshine, and breathe that soft, delicious air.


“A few hours later,” continued he, “I stood not far from the same spot, and saw that mountain angrily belching forth pitch and flames; the earth beneath my feet groaned with sullen, suppressed rage, or as if it were in pain; vast volumes of lurid smoke rolled through the sky, and streams of melted brimstone coursed down the hill-sides, burning up the pretty flowers, crushing the trees, and ruthlessly devouring the snug farms and cottages of the loving Philemons and Baucises who had incautiously built too near the fatal precinct. The poor contadini, who lately chaffered so vivaciously over their macaroni and chestnuts, were flying panic-smitten in all directions; some clasped their crucifixes, and called wildly upon the saints for protection; others leaped frantically into boats and rowed themselves dead, in the needless endeavor to escape death; while the general expression of the people was that of a multitude who, the next minute, expected to see the skies fall to crush them, or the earth open to swallow them up forever. But I was myself unmoved,” our friend concluded, in his usual vein of philosophy, “though, I trust, not unsympathizing; because I saw, through those dun clouds of smoke, the stars still shining serenely aloft, and because I felt that after that transient convulsion of nature the great sun would rise as majestically as ever on the morrow, to show us, here and there, no doubt, a beautiful tract now desolate, here and there a fruitful vale now filled with ashes, — but also, the same glorious bay breathing calmly in its bed, the same cloudless sky holding the green and peaceful earth in its complacent embrace.”

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We could not, as we listened to the story of the traveller, help considering it an illustration of that great convulsion of finance which has visited us during the last month. We do not mean to call this an eruption, which would scarcely be appropriate, — inasmuch as the characteristic of it was not a preternatural activity, but rather a preternatural stagnation and paralysis; but there is certainly a striking similarity in the contrasts presented by the two pictures just painted, and the contrasts presented in the condition of the commercial world as it is now, and as it was only a few weeks since. Then all nature smiled, and we scarcely thought of the future in the happy consciousness of the present; whereas now all nature seems to frown, and we eagerly long for the future to escape the endless vexations and miseries of the present. Our trade, which lately bloomed like a Neapolitan spring-day, is now covered with clouds and sifted with ashes, as if some angry Vesuvius had exploded its contents over us and shot the hot lava-tides among our snug vineyards and cottages. May we not also, in this case, as in that, draw some consolation from the knowledge that the stars are still shining behind the smoke, and that the sun will assuredly come up to-morrow, as it has come up on so many morrows, for so many thousands of years? Convulsions, by the very fact of their violence, show that they are short-lived; and though we, who suffer by them directly, are apt to derive the slenderest solace from the philosophy which demonstrates their transientness, or their utility in certain aspects, it is nevertheless profitable, for various reasons, to make them a subject of remark.


In a season of great public calamity, moreover, everybody feels that he ought to participate in it in some way, if not as a sufferer, then as a sympathizer, and, in either capacity, as a speculator upon its causes and probable effects. The learned historian, Monsieur Alcofribas, who preserves for our instruction “the heroic deeds and prowesses” of the great king of the Dipsodes, tells us how that once, when Philip of Macedon threatened Corinth, the virtuous inhabitants of that city were thrown into mortal fear; but they were not too much paralyzed to forget the necessity of defence; and while some fortified the walls, others sharpened spears, and others again carried the baskets, the noble Diogenes, who was doubtless the chief literary man of the place, was observed to thwack and bang his tub with unmerciful vehemence. When he was asked why he did so, he replied, that it was for the purpose of showing that he was not a mere slug and lazy spectator, in a crowd so fervently exercised. In these times, therefore, when Philip of Macedon is not precisely thundering at our walls, but nibbling at every man's cupboard and cheese-press, it behooves each Diogenes to rattle his tub at least, in order to prove, in the spirit of his prototype and master,

“Though he be rid of fear,
He is not void of care.”
If the noise he makes only add to the general turbulence and confusion, the show of sympathy will at least go for something.

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The same authority, whom we have just quoted, has a piece of advice with which we intend to set our tub in motion. “Whatsoever,” he says, “those blindfolded, blockheady fools, the astrologers of Louvain, Nuremberg, Tubingen, and Lyons, may tell you, don't you feed yourselves up with whims and fancies, nor believe there is any Governor of the whole universe this year but God the Creator, who by his Word rules and governs all things, in their nature, propriety, and conditions, and without whose preservation and governance all things in a moment would be reduced to nothing, as out of nothing they were by him created.” It is a most sound and salutary truth, not to be forgotten in times of commercial distress, nor even in discussing financial questions, remote as they may seem to be from the domain of ethics. God rules in the market, as he does on the mountain; he has provided eternal laws for society, as he has for the stars or the seas; and it is just as impossible to escape him or his ways in Wall Street or State Street as it is anywhere else. We do not wish to suggest any improper comparisons, but does not the Psalmist assert, “If I make my bed in sheol, behold Thou art there”?

In other words, commerce, the exchange of commodities, banking, and whatever relates to it, currency, the rise and fall of prices, the rates of profits, are all subject to laws as universal and unerring as those which Newton deduces in the “Principia,” or Donald McKay applies in the construction of a clipper ship. As they are manifested by more complicated phenomena, man may not know them as accurately as he knows the laws of astronomy or mechanics; but he can no more doubt the existence of the former than he can the existence of the latter; and he can no more infringe the one than he can infringe the other with impunity. The poorest housekeeper is perfectly well aware that certain rules of order are to be observed in the management of the house, or else you will have either starvation or the sheriff inside of it in a little time. But what means that formidable, big-sounding phrase, Political Economy, more than national housekeeping? Can you manage the immense, overgrown family of Uncle Sam with less calculation, less regard to justice, prudence, thrift, than you use in your own little affairs? Can you sail that tremendous vessel, the Ship of State, without looking well to your chart and compass and Navigator's Guide?


When the “Central America” sinks to the bottom of the sea with five hundred souls on board, though it is in the midst of a terrible tempest, the public instinct is inclined to impute the disaster less to the mysterious uproar of wind and wave than to some concealed defect in the vessel. Had she sunk in a tranquil ocean, while the winds were idle and the waves asleep, the incident would have produced a burst of indignation, above the deeper wail of sorrow, strong enough to sweep the guilty instruments of it out of existence. The world would have felt that some great law of mechanics had been wilfully violated. But here is a whole commercial society suddenly wrecked, in a moment of general peace, after ten years of high, but not very florid or very unwholesome prosperity, on the heel of an abundant recompense to the efforts of labor, — when there has occurred no public calamity, no war, no famine, no fire, no domestic insurrection, scarcely one startling event, and when the interpositions of the government have been literally as unfelt as the dropping of the dew, a whole commercial society is wrecked; values sink to the bottom like the California gold on the “Central America”; great money-corporations fall to pieces as her state-rooms and cabins fell to pieces; the relations of trade are dislocated as her ribs and beams were dislocated; and the people are cast upon an uncertain sea, as her passengers were cast, — not to struggle for physical existence like them, but to endure an amount of anguish and despair almost equal to what was endured by those unhappy victims.

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How can this have happened arbitrarily, capriciously, mysteriously, without some gross and positive violation of social law, some wilful and therefore wicked departure from the known principles of science? Every random conjecture as to the causes of the prevailing distress implies an answer to the question, and it need not be repeated. It is more important to inquire what those violations and departures have been, than to reiterate the general principle. What has led to the lamentable results under which we suffer? What has rendered the winds so tempestuous that they must needs blow down our noble ship? What has provoked the ire of those big bully waves so that they advance to demolish us? Ah! hark just here how the Diogenidae tumble and thump their tubs! each one rapping out his own tune; each one screaming to boot, to be heard above the din!

One cries, that we Americans are an unconscionably greedy people, ever hasting to get rich, never satisfied with our gains, and, in the frantic eagerness of accumulation, disregarding alike justice, truth, probity, and moderation. Under this impulse our trade becomes an incessant and hazardous adventure, like the stakes of the gambler upon the turn of the dice, or upon the figures of the sweat-cloth; a feverish impatience for success pushes everything to the verge of ruin, and only after it has toppled over the brink, and we have followed it, does the danger of the game we had been playing become apparent. — A second qualifies this view, and shouts, that our vice is not so much greed, which is the vice of the miser, as extravagance, which is the vice of the spendthrift; and that as soon as we get one dollar, we run in debt for ten. We must have fine houses, fine horses, fine millinery, fine upholstery, troops of servants, and give costly dinners, and attend magnificent balls. Our very shops and counting-houses must resemble the palaces of the Venetian nobility, and our dwellings be more royally arrayed than the dwellings of the mightiest monarchs. When the time comes — as come it will — for paying for all this glorious frippery, we collapse, we wither, we fleet, we sink into the sand. — A third Diogenes, of a more practical turn of mind, vociferates, that the whole thing comes from the want of a high protective tariff. These subtle and malignant foreigners, who are so jealous of our progress, who are ever on the watch to ruin us, who make any quantity of goods at any time, for nothing, and send them here just at the right moment, to swamp us irrecoverably, are the authors of the mischief, and ought to be kept outside of the nation by a triple wall of icebergs drawn around each port. They pour in upon us a flood of commodities, which destroys our manufactures; they carry off all our gold and silver, which eviscerates the banks; the banks squeeze the merchants, to the last drop of blood; and the merchants perish in the process, carrying with them hosts of mechanics, farmers, and professional men. — Not so, bellows a fourth philosopher, perhaps a little more seedy than the rest; it is all the work of “the infernal credit system,” — of the practice of making money out of that which is only a promise to pay money, — out of that which purports to have a real equivalent in some vault, when no such equivalent exists, and is, therefore, a fraud on the face of it, — and which, deluging the community, raises the price of everything, begets speculation, stimulates an excessive and factitious trade, and is then suddenly withdrawn from the system, at the height of its inflation, like wind sucked from a bladder, to leave it a mere flaccid, wrinkled, empty, worthless old film of fat!

Now, for our part, we think all the Diogenidae right, but not precisely in the way in which they state the matter; and we think the seedy Diogenes the rightest of all, — because he has struck nearest to the centre, to the organic fact which controls the other facts, — yet, without sharing his prejudice against credit, one of the blessedest of inventions. As a very long and a very dull treatise, however, would scarcely suffice to explain all the reasons for our thinking so, we must devote the one or two pages that are given us to a few simple, elementary, frontal principles, familiar, no doubt, to every one, and therefore the more important to be recalled, when every one seems to have forgotten them. Nothing is better known than the laws of gravitation; nothing staler in the repetition; but if the folk around us are building their houses so that they all fall down upon our heads, it behooves us to remind them of those laws.

1. Human wisdom has discovered nothing clearer than this, — that in all the operations of trade above a primitive barter, you must have a standard or measure of values; and human ingenuity has never been able to devise any standard more perfect, in essential respects, than the precious metals. It may be doubted, indeed, whether the choice of these metals for currency is a result of human ingenuity. Paley and his school of theologians demonstrate the existence, intelligence, and goodness of God from the evidences of design in creation, — from that nice adaptation of means to ends which shows an infinite knowledge and infinite benevolence at work; but no one of the instances in which they found their argument, from the watch, which affords the primal illustration, to the human body, which furnishes the most complex confirmations, is a more astonishing or exquisite proof of pre-arrangement than is the adaptedness of gold and silver to the purposes of currency. Your standard or measure, for instance, must, in the first place, possess a certain uniformity; if it be a measure of capacity, it must not be of the size of a thimble in the morning, and as big as a haystack at night, like the mystic bottle of the fairy tale; if a measure of length, it must not be made of caoutchouc, as long as your finger to-day, and as long as the Atlantic Cable to-morrow; and so, if a measure of value, it must not equal one thousand at ten o'clock, and equal zero at three. But the precious metals do possess this uniformity; they are not scarce, as diamonds are, so that a pinch of them might measure the value of a city; nor are they as plenty as blackberries, so that a wagon-load could scarcely buy a fat goose for dinner. They cannot be washed away like a piece of soap, nor wear out like a bit of wampum, nor crumble like agate or carnelian in dividing. In short, they combine all the advantages that are needed, with few or none of the disadvantages that would be troublesome, in a substance which is used for money. They possess intrinsic utility, they are equably supplied, they may be easily divided and then fused again, they take a stamp, and they retain the same qualities everywhere and at all times. Accordingly, all the civilized nations, from the time of great-great-great-grandfather Moses down to the time of President Buchanan, have used the precious metals for their standard of values; while your barbarians only, your silly Sandwich-islanders, your stupid troglodytes of interior Africa, your savage red men, have used for that purpose fish-bones, beaver-skins, cowries, strings of beads, or a lump of old rags. Q.E.D., then, on Paley's principles, the precious metals were meant by Divine Providence for use as money, at least more than anything else, because nothing else is so well adapted to the end. Intelligent man everywhere has been glad to recognize the Divine teaching; and the American man — holding himself the most intelligent of all men — has incorporated the lesson in his fundamental law. Nothing can be money for him, constitutionally, but metal which has a genuine ring in it.

2. Being the established standard, the precious metals, so long as they continue unchanged in amount, have a precise and definite relation to all other commodities. But they do not continue unchanged; and neither do other commodities continue unchanged. There is more gold at one time than another, and more wheat at one time than another; so that the relation between the two is not a determinate, but a variable one; and it is this variation which causes or constitutes the fluctuation of prices. If wheat increases in quantity, more of it will be given for the same money; and if it decreases, less of it will be given for the same money; on the other hand, if money increases, more of it will be given for a specific quantity of wheat, and if it decreases, less will be given; while if they increase or decrease together, a relative equilibrium will be maintained. But the beauty of the precious metals, as we have said, is that they are not liable to very sudden or considerable increase or decrease; only twice in the course of history, on the occasion of the discovery of the South American mines by the Spaniards, and of the California mines by the Americans, has there been recorded an unusual production of gold and silver; and in both cases, it is important to note, the same effect followed, — a very considerable enhancement of prices; that is, all other articles seemed to grow dear, although the real fact was that money had only grown cheap. In Spain every commodity rose; everybody experienced that delicious feeling, which we sometimes enjoy in dreams, of going up without spring or effort; and Spain was considered to be enviably prosperous and happy. As for San Francisco, we all remember the fabulous prices which ruled in that vicinity. An acquaintance of ours wrote us then, that he gave five dollars for a dinner consisting of half a pullet and two potatoes, and when he added a pint of champagne, it came to five dollars more. He allowed his washerwoman one hundred and fifty dollars a month, paid fifty dollars for a pair of second-hand cow-hide boots, and hired a cellar, seven feet by nine, and six feet under ground, at the rate of fifteen thousand dollars a year. But both in Spain and in San Francisco this ludicrous exaggeration of values cured itself. The manufacturers and merchants of all the world sent their goods of all sorts to such tempting markets; and it was not long before the goods, not the money, were in excess. Prices came down, as sailors say, by the run, and Spain and San Francisco were reduced once more to rationality and comfort. These were exceptional cases, but they illustrate the general principle, that the increase of money raises prices, and the decrease of money lowers them, which is all we wish to state. In ordinary cases, however, when the currency is in its normal condition, this rise and fall of prices is like the rise and fall of the tides, the mere pulsations of the great sea, which drown and damage nobody, and rather keep the waters more clear and wholesome by their gentle agitation.

3. The same law is observed to operate, whenever anything is made, either by the decrees of government or the usages of society, to take the place of the precious metals as money. Paper, in the shape of bank-bills, promising to pay money on demand, is the most frequent, because the most cheap and convenient substitute; accordingly, when convertible paper-money is increased, it raises prices, and when it is diminished, it depresses prices, just as in the case of a metallic currency. But there are these two signal points of distinction between a paper and a metallic currency: first, that paper money may be increased or diminished much more easily than metallic money; and, second, that any excess or deficiency of the former is not so easily corrected by the natural operations of trade. The sudden or large increase of the metals is prevented by their scarcity and the laborious processes necessary to produce them, and a sudden or large decrease of them could be brought about only by some great public calamity which should destroy them or cause them to be hoarded. But paper money, whether made by a government or made by authorized corporations, may be issued and put in circulation almost at will, and again be withdrawn at will. We do not mean that the issue and withdrawal of it are wholly unchecked, but that the checks, as the entire history of banking would seem to prove, are comparatively inefficient and delusive. If the rise and fall of prices, caused by the fluctuations of metallic money, are to be compared to the rise and fall of the tides, the rise and fall of paper prices are more like the increase and decrease of steam in a boiler, which is an admirable agent, but demanding an incessant and scientific control. The sea-tides, even after a tempest, will regulate themselves, because they have all the oceans and all the rivers of the globe to draw upon; but the steam in a boiler is a thing confined, and yet capable of immense and destructive expansion. A metallic currency runs from nation to nation, and has its perturbations corrected from nation to nation; but a paper currency is local, and cannot be so well corrected by the great interchanges of the globe. Let us make this clearer in another way.

4. It is universally conceded, by all the writers on finance, that any unusual production of currency occasions a rise of prices; the relative value of money is less than it was before, while the relative value of other articles is greater; a greater quantity of money is given for other articles, and fewer of other articles are given for the same amount of money. This rise has the double effect of provoking the importation of foreign commodities, and of preventing the exportation of domestic commodities; inasmuch as the same enhancement of rates, which opens a good domestic market for the former, closes the foreign market to the latter; and thus an unfavorable balance accumulates rapidly against the country where the rise occurs, in respect to other countries where it has not occurred. Now sooner or later this balance must be paid; and as products cannot be profitably shipped abroad to furnish a fund whereupon to draw bills of exchange, it must be paid in coin. The coin is therefore abstracted from circulation; and if coin were the only currency, such an abstraction would of itself induce a fall of prices, which would operate as a check upon importations until the old relation of equilibrium should be restored. But where the government, or where individuals, whether organized or alone, have the power to replace the departed coin by issues of paper money, prices are for a while maintained, and importations continued as vigorously as ever. All this, however, is but a postponement of the day of settlement. The balance to be extinguished is a substantial balance, which can be discharged only by substantial means; a mere promise to pay, a mere sign and representative of debt, will not extinguish it, any more than the smell of a cook-shop will extinguish a ravenous appetite. The insatiable creditor will have money; and the depositories of that essential become, under his assaults, more and more meagre and tenuous. The managers of them at last get alarmed, and begin to withhold their issues of paper; which means that they begin to reduce their loans to the community. The money-market grows “tight,” as it is phrased; the money-world feels generally as if it had taken an overdose of persimmons. Merchants and dealers, shorn of their usual accommodations, are compelled to borrow at ruinous usuries, or to fail to meet their payments. Their default involves others; others fail, and others again. The bowels of the banks, with us the great money-lenders, close with the snap and tenacity of steel-traps; and then a general panic, or want of commercial confidence, brings on a paralysis of the domestic exchanges, and wide-spread bankruptcy and ruin. Importations are checked, of course; but they are checked in a sharp, rapid, and violent way, accompanied by the most painful embarrassments and convulsions.

This we believe to be an outline of the history of all our commercial catastrophes, stripped of those local and incidental circumstances which vary from time to time: over-issues of money, — speculative prosperity, — all the world getting rich in the most agreeable manner, — fairy palaces rising on all sides, without the sound of trowel or hammer; then, — the day of adjustment, — the rapid contraction of the currency, — all the world getting poor in the most drastic and disagreeable manner, — and those fairy palaces, which rose under our very eyelids over-night, vanishing, like the palace of Aladdin from the vision of the Grand-Seignior after he awoke in the morning. But, alas! the revulsion does not stop with the overthrow of the palaces which had been reared without labor; it is not satisfied with the dissipation of mere fancies and dreams; but, being itself a most real thing, it carries with it many a stately structure, which the toil, the economy, the self-denial of years had hardly raised. Extraneous causes, — a short crop, — a reduced tariff, — a peculiar mania of enterprise, — may hasten or retard the various steps of the process which has been described; but its cause and its course are almost always the same, and the discerning eye may easily detect them, from the beginning to the end of our modern commercial experience. In the existing difficulties, in this country, the railroad speculations have had much to do with producing and aggravating the effect; but the primary source of it, we think, is to be found in the ease with which our currency is inflated, under a banking system which varies from State to State, and which, outside of New England and New York, where it is by no means perfect, is as bungling a contrivance, for the ends to be answered, as was ever inflicted on the patience of mankind. Much of the trouble is due also to the extravagance and reckless waste of our people, which, though owing in some degree to our want of good manners and good taste, are directly traceable to the stimulus given to expense by the over-issue of artificial money. While the paper which passes for money is plenty, and every man can easily get “accommodations” from the banks, we squander without thought. No matter how costly the articles we buy; the expansion of the currency is greater than the rise in market values; and it is only when the contraction comes that we see how foolishly lavish we have been.

What, then, is the remedy? “Why, away with paper currency altogether!” says one. Yes, — tear up your Croton-water-pipes, because the breaking of a main sometimes submerges your dwellings; destroy your railroads, because the trains sometimes run off the track; arrest your steamships, because an “Arctic” and a “Central America” go disastrously down into the deep, deep sea! That were not wise, surely; that were very unwise, even were it possible, which it is not. — “Give us a high protective tariff,” says another. Most certainly, friend, if we are to be perpetually flooded with paper, a high tariff is needed; — your theory is at least consistent, however it may have worked in practice. But a high protective tariff is an impossibility, because it can be attained only by favor of the Federal legislature; and, as we all know, at the door of that legislature stands the inexorable shape of the Slave Power, which consults no interest but its own in the management of government, and which will never make a concession to the manufacturers or the merchants of the North, unless it be to purchase some new act of baseness, or bind them in some new chains of servility. — But have you inquired whether that flood of paper is necessary? We frankly tell you that we do not believe it is; we believe that a better system is possible, — to be brought about, not by greater restrictions on banking, but by greater freedom; and we only regret that we have not now space to discuss that faith with you in all its reasons and results. We hope to be permitted to do so at some other time. Meanwhile, let us rejoice that the whole subject is in a position to be frankly discussed. A few years ago, when the question of the currency was a question of party politics, there was no aspect in which it could be presented, which did not arouse all the restless jealousies of party prejudice. If you talked of hard-money, you were denounced as a Benton bullionist; if you talked of credit, you were called a Whig banker, plotting to devour the poor; and the calmest phrases of science were turned into the shibboleths of an internecine warfare. A better hour has come, and let us improve it to our mutual edification.






金融风暴
"银行和我们这些大的放款人的肠子，以钢铁陷阱的速度和韧性关闭；然后，普遍的恐慌，或商业信心的缺乏，带来了国内交易所的瘫痪，以及广泛的破产和毁灭。"


美国国会图书馆
1857年11月号
社会福利
"打破，打破，打破。
在你冰冷的灰色峭壁上，海啊！"
"我记得有一天，"不久前一位朋友说，"那一天就像诗人在同一首诗中唱的婚礼和葬礼一样甜蜜、平静、凉爽和明亮，当时我站在那不勒斯附近的白色海岸上，看着远处蓝色、寂静的海水，沿着灰色、多花的山坡，来到维苏威火山高耸的锥体劈向天空的地方。这时正值春天；繁茂的大自然似乎无事可做，只顾着生长和开花，而巨大的山峰本身也非常平静，显然，它对爬上它两侧的精致豆类植物和野生藤蔓表示欢迎，并在它的眉毛周围戴上了轻盈的卷烟，像一个快乐的冠冕。海湾里有很多戴着红帽子的渔民，每个人都想把他下面的兄弟捞上来；海滩上挤满了妇女，她们拿着篮子欢快地唠叨着；沿路是穿着鲜艳制服的士兵，仿佛他们除了沐浴那清澈的阳光，呼吸那柔和、可口的空气，没有任何可以想象的生活目的。


"几个小时后，"他继续说，"我站在离同一地点不远的地方，看到那座山愤怒地喷出黑黝黝的火焰；我脚下的土地发出沉闷的、压抑的愤怒的呻吟声，或者仿佛在痛苦中。巨大的烟雾在天空中翻滚，熔化的硫磺石流顺着山坡流下，烧毁了漂亮的花朵，压碎了树木，无情地吞噬了那些可爱的菲利蒙斯和鲍西斯的舒适农场和小屋，这些人不谨慎地在致命的区域附近建造了房子。最近还在为通心粉和栗子活蹦乱跳的可怜的人，惊慌失措地朝四面八方飞去；有些人紧紧抱着十字架，疯狂地呼唤圣人的保护；有些人疯狂地跳上小船，把自己划死，为的是无谓地逃避死亡；而人们的普遍表情是，下一分钟就会看到天空掉下来压死他们，或者大地裂开，永远吞没他们。但我自己却无动于衷，"我们的朋友以他一贯的哲学风格总结道，"不过，我相信，我并非不同情。因为我看到，透过那些昏暗的烟云，星星仍然在高空宁静地闪耀，因为我感到，在自然界的那场短暂的震荡之后，伟大的太阳将在明天像以往一样威严地升起，向我们展示，这里和那里，毫无疑问，一片美丽的土地现在已经荒凉，这里和那里，一个丰饶的谷地现在充满了灰烬，但是，同样辉煌的海湾在其床上平静地呼吸，同样无云的天空将绿色和和平的大地拥抱在它得意的怀抱中。 "

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当我们听完这位旅行者的故事时，我们不能不认为它是上个月访问我们的那场金融大震荡的一个例证。我们无意称其为爆发，这几乎是不恰当的，因为它的特点不是超自然的活动，而是超自然的停滞和瘫痪；但刚才的两幅画所呈现的对比肯定有惊人的相似之处，而商业世界的状况现在和几周前的对比也是如此。当时，所有的自然界都在微笑，我们在现在的幸福意识中几乎没有想到未来；而现在，所有的自然界似乎都在皱眉头，我们急切地渴望着未来，以摆脱现在无尽的烦恼和痛苦。我们的贸易，最近像那不勒斯的春日一样绽放，现在却被乌云所覆盖，被灰烬所筛选，就像一些愤怒的维苏威火山在我们头上爆炸，将热熔岩潮射入我们舒适的葡萄园和小屋。在这种情况下，我们是不是也可以从这样的知识中得到一些安慰，即星星仍然在烟雾后面闪耀，而且太阳肯定会在明天升起，就像它在这么多的明天，这么多的几千年来都会升起一样？惊厥，通过其暴力的事实，表明它们是短暂的；尽管我们这些直接受其影响的人，很容易从证明其短暂性的哲学中得到最微弱的安慰，或在某些方面的效用，但出于各种原因，将其作为评论的主题，是有益的。


此外，在一个巨大的公共灾难的季节，每个人都觉得他应该以某种方式参与其中，如果不是作为一个受难者，那就是作为一个同情者，而且，无论以哪种身份，都是对其原因和可能的影响的一个猜测者。博学的历史学家Alcofribas先生为我们保留了伟大的迪普索德国王的 "英雄事迹和能力"，他告诉我们，有一次，当马其顿的菲利普威胁科林斯时，该城市的有德居民陷入了致命的恐惧。但他们并没有麻痹大意，忘记了防卫的必要性；当一些人加固城墙，另一些人磨制长矛，另一些人再次搬运篮子时，人们看到高贵的第欧根尼，无疑是这个地方的主要文学家，以毫不留情的激烈态度敲打着他的浴缸。当有人问他为什么要这样做时，他回答说，这是为了表明他不是一个单纯的鼻涕虫和懒惰的旁观者，在一个如此狂热的人群中。因此，在这个时代，当马其顿的菲利普不是在我们的城墙上打雷，而是在啃食每个人的橱柜和奶酪压榨机时，每个第欧根尼至少应该敲响他的盆子，以便以他的原型和主人的精神证明。

"虽然他已经摆脱了恐惧，但他并不是没有关心。
他并非不关心。"
如果他发出的噪音只是增加了一般的动荡和混乱，那么这种同情的表现至少会有所收获。

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我们刚刚引用的这位权威人士，还有一个建议，我们打算用它来启动我们的浴缸。"他说："不管那些蒙着眼睛、笨手笨脚的傻瓜，鲁汶、纽伦堡、图宾根和里昂的占星家们怎么说，你们都不要用异想天开和幻想来养活自己，也不要相信今年整个宇宙的管理者只有上帝这个创造者，他通过他的话语统治和管理所有事物的性质、适当性和条件，如果没有他的保护和管理，所有事物在瞬间就会化为乌有，因为它们是他创造的。" 这是一个最合理、最有益的真理，在商业困难时期，甚至在讨论金融问题时也不能忘记，因为它们似乎与道德领域相距甚远。上帝统治着市场，就像他在山上一样；他为社会提供了永恒的法律，就像他为星星或海洋提供的法律一样；在华尔街或州街，就像在其他地方一样，不可能逃脱他或他的方式。我们不想提出任何不恰当的比较，但诗篇作者不是断言："我若在阴间安床，看你在那里 "吗？

换句话说，商业、商品交换、银行业以及与之相关的任何事物、货币、价格的涨落、利润率，都受制于规律，就像牛顿在 "原理 "中推导出的规律，或唐纳德-麦凯在建造一艘快船时运用的规律一样普遍和准确。由于它们是通过更复杂的现象表现出来的，人类可能不会像了解天文学或力学规律那样准确地了解它们；但他不能像怀疑后者的存在那样怀疑前者的存在；他也不能像侵犯其他规律那样肆无忌惮地侵犯前者。最贫穷的管家也非常清楚，在管理房子时必须遵守某些秩序规则，否则，过不了多久，不是饿死就是被警长抓进去。但是，"政治经济学 "这个听起来很高大上的短语，比国家的家务管理更有意义？你能用比你自己的小事更少的计算，更少的考虑到正义、谨慎和节俭来管理山姆大叔这个庞大的、过度生长的家庭吗？你能在驾驶这艘巨大的船只--国家之船时，不好好看看你的海图和指南针以及《航海指南》吗？


当 "中美洲 "号沉入海底，船上有五百人，尽管它是在可怕的暴风雨中，公众的直觉倾向于把灾难归咎于风和浪的神秘骚动，而不是归咎于船只的某些隐蔽缺陷。如果她在平静的海洋中沉没，而风是闲置的，波浪是沉睡的，这一事件将产生一阵愤慨，超过更深的悲伤的哀号，足以将有罪的工具扫地出门。全世界都会觉得，一些伟大的机械法则被故意违反了。但是，在普遍和平的时刻，在经过十年的高度繁荣，但不是很花哨或很不健康的繁荣之后，在对劳动者的努力给予充分补偿的情况下，--当没有发生公共灾难，没有战争，没有饥荒，没有火灾，没有国内叛乱，几乎没有一个惊人的事件，当政府的干预实际上像露水滴落一样没有感觉时，整个商业社会突然失事了。价值就像 "中美洲 "号上的加利福尼亚黄金一样沉入海底；巨大的货币公司就像她的房间和船舱一样摔得粉碎；贸易关系就像她的肋骨和横梁一样脱臼；人民就像她的乘客一样被抛在不确定的海上--不是像他们一样为生存而挣扎，而是要忍受几乎与那些不幸的受害者所忍受的一样多的痛苦和绝望。

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如果没有对社会法则的严重和积极的违反，没有对已知的科学原则的故意和邪恶的偏离，这怎么可能任意地、任性地、神秘地发生？每一个关于普遍苦难的原因的随意猜测都意味着对这个问题的回答，这一点无需重复。与重申一般原则相比，更重要的是探究这些违反和背离的情况是什么。是什么导致了我们所遭受的可悲的结果？是什么让风变得如此狂暴，以至于它们必须吹倒我们这艘高贵的船？是什么激起了那些大浪的愤怒，以至于它们要把我们拆毁？啊！请听我说，这些人是如何翻来覆去地敲打他们的盆子的！每个人都在敲打着自己的曲子；每个人都在尖叫着，以便在喧闹声中被听到。

一个人喊道，我们美国人是一个不合情理的贪婪的民族，总是急于致富，从不满足于我们的收益，而且在疯狂的急于积累的过程中，同样无视正义、真理、正直和节制。在这种冲动下，我们的贸易变成了一种不间断的危险冒险，就像赌徒掷骰子时的赌注，或汗衫上的数字一样；对成功的狂热渴望将一切推向毁灭的边缘，只有在它倒下后，我们才会发现我们所玩的游戏的危险性。- 第二种观点对这一观点进行了限定，并大声疾呼：我们的恶习与其说是贪婪，即守财奴的恶习，不如说是奢侈，即挥霍无度的恶习；我们一旦得到一美元，就会负债十美元。我们必须有好的房子，好的马匹，好的服装，好的装饰品，好的仆人队伍，举办昂贵的晚宴，参加华丽的舞会。我们的商店和会计室必须像威尼斯贵族的宫殿一样，我们的住宅必须比最强大的君主的住宅更有皇家气派。当支付所有这些光荣的装饰品的时间到来时--因为它会到来--我们就会崩溃，我们就会枯萎，我们就会消失，我们就会沉入沙堆。- 第三位思想更实际的第欧根尼大声疾呼，这一切都源于缺乏高额的保护关税。这些狡猾而恶毒的外国人，他们如此嫉妒我们的进步，他们一直在监视我们，他们在任何时候制造任何数量的货物，不费吹灰之力，并在适当的时候把它们送到这里，使我们无可挽回地陷入困境，他们是祸害的制造者，应该在每个港口周围筑起三道冰山墙，把他们挡在国家之外。他们向我们灌输大量的商品，摧毁我们的制造业；他们带走我们所有的黄金和白银，使银行被掏空；银行挤压商人，使他们流尽最后一滴血；商人在这个过程中死亡，同时带走了大量的机械师、农民和职业人。- 并非如此，第四位哲学家也这么说，也许他比其他人更肮脏一些。这都是 "无间道的信贷系统 "的功劳，是用那些只是承诺支付金钱的东西来赚钱的做法，是用那些声称在某个金库中有真正等价物的东西来赚钱的做法，而这些等价物并不存在，因此，从表面上看是一种欺诈，--而且，这。在社会上泛滥成灾，抬高了所有东西的价格，引起了投机，刺激了过度和虚假的贸易，然后在通货膨胀的高峰期突然从系统中撤出，就像从膀胱中吸出的风一样，使它仅仅成为一张松弛的、起皱的、空洞的、毫无价值的旧脂肪薄膜

现在，就我们而言，我们认为所有的第欧根尼派都是正确的，但并不完全是他们陈述问题的方式；我们认为种子派的第欧根尼是所有派别中最正确的，--因为他最接近中心，最接近控制其他事实的有机事实，--然而，不分享他对信用的偏见，这是一个最幸福的发明。然而，一篇冗长而枯燥的论文几乎不足以解释我们这样想的所有原因，我们必须把给我们的一两页篇幅用于几个简单的、基本的、正面的原则，毫无疑问，每个人都很熟悉，因此，在每个人似乎都忘记它们的时候，更需要回顾一下。没有什么比万有引力定律更广为人知的了；没有什么比重复更重要的了；但是如果我们周围的人建造的房子都倒在了我们的头上，那么我们就应该提醒他们这些定律。

1. 人类的智慧没有发现比这更清楚的东西，即在所有高于原始易货贸易的操作中，你必须有一个价值标准或衡量标准；而人类的聪明才智从未能够设计出任何在基本方面比贵金属更完美的标准。事实上，人们可能会怀疑，选择这些金属作为货币是否是人类智慧的结果。佩利和他的神学流派从创造中的设计证据中证明了上帝的存在、智慧和仁慈，--从手段与目的的完美结合中证明了无限的知识和无限的仁慈在起作用；但是，从提供原始说明的手表到提供最复杂证明的人体，没有一个例子比金银适合货币的用途更令人惊讶或精致地证明预先安排。例如，你的标准或度量衡，首先必须具有某种统一性；如果它是一种容量的度量衡，它就不能像童话故事中的神秘瓶子那样，早上只有一个顶针的大小，晚上却有一个干草堆那么大。如果是衡量长度的标准，它一定不是用橡胶制成的，今天和你的手指一样长，明天和大西洋电缆一样长；同样，如果是衡量价值的标准，它一定不是在10点钟等于1000，而在3点钟等于0。但贵金属确实具有这种一致性；它们不像钻石那样稀缺，以至于一撮就可以衡量一个城市的价值；它们也不像黑莓那样多，以至于一车几乎买不到一只肥鹅作为晚餐。它们不会像一块肥皂那样被洗掉，也不会像一点羊皮纸那样被磨损，更不会像玛瑙或红玉髓那样在分割时碎裂。简而言之，它们结合了所有需要的优点，而很少或根本没有用于货币的物质的缺点。它们具有内在的效用，它们的供应量相等，它们可以很容易地被分割，然后再次融合，它们带有印章，而且它们在任何地方和任何时候都保持相同的品质。因此，所有的文明国家，从曾曾祖父摩西的时代到布坎南总统的时代，都使用贵金属作为他们的价值标准；而你们的野蛮人，你们愚蠢的三明治岛民，你们愚蠢的非洲内陆的troglodytes，你们野蛮的红人，都为此目的使用了鱼骨、海狸皮、牛毛、珠子串或一坨旧布条。Q.E.D.，那么，根据Paley的原则，贵金属是由上帝的旨意来作为货币使用的，至少比其他任何东西都重要，因为没有其他东西能很好地适应这一目的。各地的聪明人都很高兴认识到这一神圣的教诲；而美国人--认为自己是所有男人中最聪明的--已将这一教训纳入其基本法律。按照宪法规定，没有什么东西能成为他的钱，只有真正有价值的金属。

2. 2.作为既定的标准，贵金属，只要它们的数量不变，就与所有其他商品有准确和明确的关系。但它们并没有继续保持不变；其他商品也没有继续保持不变。在某个时候，黄金比另一个时候多，在某个时候，小麦比另一个时候多；因此，两者之间的关系不是确定的，而是可变的；正是这种变化导致或构成了价格的波动。如果小麦的数量增加，同样的钱就会得到更多的小麦；如果小麦减少，同样的钱就会得到更少的小麦；另一方面，如果货币增加，特定数量的小麦就会得到更多的货币，如果货币减少，就会得到更少的货币；而如果它们同时增加或减少，就会保持一种相对平衡。但是，正如我们所说，贵金属的好处是，它们不容易突然或大幅度地增加或减少；在历史上只有两次，即西班牙人发现南美矿区和美国人发现加利福尼亚矿区时，记录了金银的不寻常产量；在这两种情况下，必须注意的是，同样的效果随之而来，即价格非常可观地提高；也就是说，所有其他物品似乎都变得昂贵，尽管实际情况是，货币只是变得便宜。在西班牙，每种商品都在上涨；每个人都体验到了那种美味的感觉，我们有时会在梦中享受到这种感觉，即不费吹灰之力就能上涨；西班牙被认为是令人羡慕的繁荣和幸福。至于旧金山，我们都记得那一带神话般的价格。我们的一个熟人在信中说，他给了五美元的晚餐，包括半只小鸡和两个土豆，当他加上一品脱的香槟酒时，就多了五美元。他允许他的洗衣女工每月支付一百五十美元，为一双二手牛皮靴支付五十美元，并以每年一万五千美元的价格租用了一个七英尺乘九英尺、地下六英尺的地窖。但在西班牙和旧金山，这种可笑的夸大价值的现象都得到了纠正。全世界的制造商和商人都把他们的各种货物送到这种诱人的市场；不久之后，货物而不是金钱就过剩了。正如水手们所说的那样，价格下降了，西班牙和旧金山再次恢复了理性和舒适。这些都是特殊情况，但它们说明了一个一般原则，即货币的增加会提高价格，而货币的减少会降低价格，这就是我们要说明的。然而，在一般情况下，当货币处于正常状态时，价格的涨落就像潮汐的涨落一样，仅仅是大海的脉动，它不会淹没和损害任何人，反而会因其温和的激荡而使海水更加清澈和健康。

3. 3. 据观察，每当有什么东西被政府的法令或社会的惯例用来取代贵金属作为货币的地位时，同样的规律就会发挥作用。纸张，以银行票据的形式，承诺按需支付，是最常见的，因为它是最便宜和最方便的替代品；因此，当可兑换的纸币增加时，它提高了价格，当它减少时，它抑制了价格，就像在金属货币的情况一样。但是，纸币和金属货币之间有两个明显的区别：第一，纸币比金属货币更容易增加或减少；第二，前者的任何过度或不足都不容易被贸易的自然运作所纠正。金属的突然或大量增加是由于它们的稀缺性和生产它们所需的费力过程所阻止的，而它们的突然或大量减少只能由一些巨大的公共灾难来实现，这些灾难会摧毁它们或导致它们被囤积起来。但是，纸币，无论是由政府还是由授权公司制造的，几乎可以随意发行并投入流通，也可以随意收回。我们并不是说纸币的发行和提取完全不受制约，而是说，正如整个银行业的历史所证明的那样，这种制约是相对低效和虚妄的。如果把由金属货币波动引起的价格涨落比作潮汐的涨落，那么纸价的涨落更像是锅炉中蒸汽的增减，它是一种令人钦佩的药剂，但需要不断的科学控制。海潮，即使在暴风雨过后，也会自我调节，因为它们有全球所有的海洋和河流可供利用；但锅炉中的蒸汽是一种封闭的东西，但却能进行巨大的破坏性扩张。金属货币从一个国家到另一个国家，并在国家与国家之间纠正其扰动；但纸币是地方性的，无法通过全球的大交换得到很好的纠正。让我们以另一种方式更清楚地说明这一点。

4. 所有的金融学家都承认，任何不寻常的货币生产都会导致价格上涨；货币的相对价值比以前低，而其他物品的相对价值则更高；更多的货币被用于购买其他物品，而同样数量的货币则被用于购买更少的其他物品。这种上涨具有双重效果，即刺激外国商品的进口，并阻止国内商品的出口；因为同样的利率提高，为前者打开了一个良好的国内市场，也为后者关闭了国外市场；因此，相对于没有发生上涨的其他国家而言，不利的平衡迅速积累到发生上涨的国家。现在，这笔余额迟早必须支付；由于产品不能有利地运往国外以提供提取汇票的资金，因此必须用硬币支付。因此，硬币从流通中被抽走；如果硬币是唯一的货币，这种抽走本身就会引起价格下跌，这将对进口产生抑制作用，直到恢复旧的平衡关系。但是，在政府或个人（无论是有组织的还是单独的）有能力通过发行纸币来取代已经消失的硬币的地方，价格会暂时保持不变，进口也会像以前一样继续保持旺盛。然而，所有这些只不过是推迟了结算的日子。要清偿的余额是一笔巨大的余额，只有通过实质性的手段才能清偿；仅仅是支付的承诺，仅仅是债务的标志和代表，并不能清偿它，就像炊事班的气味能熄灭贪婪的胃口一样。贪得无厌的债权人将拥有金钱；在他的攻击下，这种重要的存款变得越来越少，越来越脆弱。他们的管理者最后感到震惊，并开始扣留他们发行的纸张；这意味着他们开始减少对社会的贷款。货币市场变得 "紧张"，正如人们所说的那样；货币世界普遍感到好像吃了过量的柿子一样。商人和经销商失去了他们惯有的便利条件，被迫以破坏性的高利贷借款，或者无法履行他们的付款。他们的违约涉及到其他人；其他人失败，其他人又失败。银行和我们这些大的放款人的肠子，就像钢铁陷阱一样紧紧关闭；然后，普遍的恐慌或商业信心的缺乏，带来了国内交易所的瘫痪，以及广泛的破产和毁灭。当然，进口被阻止了；但它们是以一种尖锐、迅速和猛烈的方式被阻止的，并伴随着最痛苦的窘迫和抽搐。

我们认为，这是我们所有商业灾难的历史概要，其中不包括那些因时而异的地方和偶然的情况。货币的过度发行，投机性的繁荣，全世界都在以最令人满意的方式致富，仙宫在四面八方升起，没有铲子或锤子的声音；然后，调整的日子，货币的迅速收缩，全世界都在以最激烈和令人不快的方式变穷，那些在我们眼皮下一夜之间升起的仙宫消失了，就像阿拉丁的宫殿从大酋长早晨醒来后的视野中消失一样。但是，不幸的是，这种毁灭并没有因为推翻那些不劳而获的宫殿而停止；它并不满足于仅仅是幻想和梦想的消散；但是，它本身就是一种最真实的东西，它带着许多庄严的结构，而这些结构是多年来的辛劳、经济和自我放弃所难以养成的。外来的原因，如作物短缺、关税降低、企业的特殊狂热，可能会加速或延缓上述过程的各个步骤；但其原因和过程几乎总是相同的，明眼人很容易发现它们，从我们现代商业经验的开始到结束。在我国现有的困难中，铁路投机在很大程度上产生并加剧了这种影响；但我们认为，其主要根源在于我们的货币在银行系统下容易膨胀，而这种银行系统在各州都不尽相同，在新英格兰和纽约以外的地区，它还不完善，为了达到目的，它是人类有史以来最拙劣的一种设计。许多麻烦也是由于我们人民的奢侈和不计后果的浪费造成的，虽然在某种程度上是由于我们缺乏良好的礼仪和品味，但可直接归因于过度发行人造货币对支出的刺激。虽然充当货币的纸张很多，而且每个人都可以很容易地从银行获得 "住宿"，但我们却不假思索地挥霍。无论我们购买的物品多么昂贵，货币的膨胀都大于市场价值的上升；只有当收缩到来时，我们才会发现我们的挥霍是多么的愚蠢。

那么，补救的办法是什么？有人说："为什么，完全取消纸币！"。是的，--拆掉你的克罗顿水管，因为主水管的断裂有时会淹没你的住宅；毁掉你的铁路，因为火车有时会冲出轨道；逮捕你的蒸汽船，因为一艘 "北极号 "和一艘 "中美洲号 "灾难性地沉入深不见底的大海 这肯定不是明智之举；这是很不明智的，即使有可能，但这是不可能的。- "给我们一个高的保护性关税，"另一个人说。当然，朋友，如果我们要永远被纸张淹没，就需要高额的关税；--你的理论至少是一致的，不管它在实践中如何运作。但是，高额的保护性关税是不可能的，因为它只有通过联邦立法机构的支持才能实现；而且，我们都知道，在立法机构的门口站着奴隶制国家不可阻挡的身影，它在政府管理中只考虑自己的利益，而且它永远不会对北方的制造商或商人作出让步，除非是为了购买一些新的卑鄙行为，或者把他们捆绑在一些新的奴役链条上。- 但是，你们是否询问过这种泛滥的纸张是否有必要？我们坦率地告诉你们，我们不认为有这个必要；我们相信，一个更好的制度是可能的--不是通过对银行业务的更大限制，而是通过更大的自由来实现；我们唯一遗憾的是，我们现在没有空间与你们讨论这一信念的所有理由和结果。我们只感到遗憾的是，我们现在没有空间与你们讨论这一信念的所有理由和结果，我们希望能在其他时间被允许这样做。同时，让我们感到高兴的是，整个问题可以得到坦诚的讨论。几年前，当货币问题是一个政党政治问题时，没有任何一个方面的问题可以不引起政党偏见的所有不安的嫉妒。如果你谈论硬通货，你就会被指责为本顿的金条主义者；如果你谈论信贷，你就会被称为辉格党的银行家，阴谋吞噬穷人；最平静的科学短语被变成自相残杀的谎言。一个更好的时代已经到来，让我们改善它，使之成为我们的共同财富。