2022.04.06 卡佳-卡拉斯谈乌克兰的暴行

shiyi18

By Invitation | Russia and Ukraine
Kaja Kallas on the atrocities in Ukraine
Estonia’s prime minister argues that although the Soviet Union collapsed, its imperialist ideology never did

Apr 6th 2022

I AM WRITING this essay as the world has woken up to the horrific scenes from Irpin and Bucha, suburbs of Kyiv in Ukraine. We see pictures of mass graves and civilians murdered by Russian troops. These photos remind Estonians of the killings by the Soviet regime and the NKVD, its law-enforcement ministry. Its machine of state terror murdered civilians in exactly the same way. Deportations and filtration camps take me and every other Estonian family back to painful memories of repression under Soviet occupation and of Gulag prison camps.

Placing civilians at the frontline is a Russian war tactic. The proof? There are more civilian victims than there are military casualties—especially if you consider that it’s not accidental that a quarter of Ukraine’s population has been forced to flee from their homes or that Russia has engineered humanitarian catastrophes in cities such as Mariupol. Targeting civilians is a war crime according to international law. Ukraine is not a battlefield; it’s a crime scene. So too were Rwanda and Srebrenica.


The perpetrators of these atrocities must be brought to justice. The free world should lend its full support—both political and practical—to the investigation launched last month by the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court into war crimes and crimes against humanity. These crimes do not expire and so neither should the investigation. We still know about only a fraction of the atrocities that Russian troops have committed; the true scale of the Kremlin’s brutality is yet to be seen.

As a mother, it hurts my soul to see how thousands are losing their lives in Ukraine. The Kremlin is sending its youth to die and is slaughtering innocent people and shelling their homes en masse. And what for? For the sake of Vladimir Putin’simperialist ambition. By now it has become abundantly clear that although the Soviet Union collapsed, its imperialist ideology never did.

The suffering and devastation in Ukraine is far from over as Mr Putin's strategic aims have not changed. Negotiations at gunpoint offer no magic formula for avoiding another war and peace at any price does not mean that atrocities will end. Here I am speaking from the experience of my own country. For Estonia and many others after the second world war, peace meant the beginning of the Soviet occupation with its huge human cost. It brought renewed suffering through mass killings, repressions, mass deportations and other crimes against humanity.

Estonia’s experience reminds us that our first focus today must be on how to help Ukraine free itself from occupying forces, restore its territorial integrity and stop Russian aggression. I cannot help but admire the brave fight Volodymyr Zelensky is leading and the extremely difficult choices he faces.


All of the warning signs were there in recent decades: imperial nostalgia, the narrative of Russian victimhood and Mr Putin’s wars in Chechnya, Georgia, Donbas and Crimea. We heard statements that Ukraine—which has a population of 44m and is the third-largest country by territory in Europe (after Russia and Turkey)—had no right to exist. In December Russia gave ultimatums to NATO to limit its deployment of troops and weapons and in effect to reverse the enlargement of its membership so as to take it back to its size in 1997.

The past three of Mr Putin’s wars illustrate why he must not win this one and why Moscow cannot be allowed to pretend that it has gained anything in the process.We have let Mr Putin get away with this aggression several times before. We can’t let him get away with it again now. Were that to happen, his appetite would only grow, and more atrocities and more human suffering would follow.

The Ukrainian crisis has made it once again crystal-clear why countries in central and eastern Europe, after breaking free from Soviet occupation, quickly asked to join NATO. The alliance doesn’t exist to threaten Russia: it is for defence. It exists to keep tens of millions from being enslaved and slaughtered by dictators. And it is the actions of the Soviet Union, and later Russia, that explain why so many countries wanted to join NATO. Those blaming it for “expansion” and “escalation” succumb to the very imperial ideology and language pursued by the Kremlin. These run counter to the principles of state sovereignty and democracy.

We are at an era-defining moment and the decisions we make now will stick with us for decades. The war touches the European Union’s own borders. Our response and support to Ukraine will determine if lasting peace is possible on our continent. I believe the steps we need to take should come under the label “smart containment”.

First, military aid to Ukraine must be our top priority. This means, among other things, sending weapons and materiel that the Ukrainians need and have requested. They need help not only to better protect their skies, but also to take back their cities and to free people from Russian occupation and repression. The brave people of Ukraine have not yet tired and so neither can we. There is a lot more we should do and we must commit ourselves to it for years to come.

Second, we must disarm the Kremlin and its war machine financially. Unless we quickly dry up its revenues, Russia will be able to continue its aggression and slaughter. Hydrocarbons were a major source of Russian state budget revenue (more than 40%) last year. This year they are rapidly turning into the biggest source because of increased demand and increasing prices. If the free world wants to stop financing Mr Putin”'s war, our focus must be on drying up these revenues as soon as possible. If we are not ready to stop the purchases of hydrocarbons all at once, we should set up a special third-party escrow account to reserve part of the money paid for Russian oil and gas. This would rapidly diminish the income received by the Kremlin. It would send a clear signal to Mr Putin: this war will cost Russia a fortune. Not only will Russia pay for every bullet its army shoots, but it will also pay for every bridge destroyed and house shelled in Ukraine. The Kremlin must pay its due for the damage caused.


Third, NATO must demonstrate that it is determined, able and ready to defend every inch of its territory and, if need be, to use force. Sometimes the best way to achieve peace is to be willing to use military strength.

Life at the frontline of the free world means we in Estonia must do a lot more ourselves for our own defence. My government has decided to significantly increase our own contribution: our defence expenditure next year will be more than NATO’s target of 2% of GDP. We will bring it up to 2.5% of GDP.

I keep getting asked whether I think Estonia will be the next country to be invaded by Russia. We should be doing everything to make sure that no country will be next. If our strength fails us now, then the question will become whether NATO is next. It is the most successful defence alliance ever and has never been militarily invaded in its history. There is a clear reason for that: its deterrence has worked. To keep it thus we need to make the effort to adapt our military posture adequately.

We need a long-term policy shift in NATO’s defence posture. This means more combat-ready troops stationed permanently in the Baltic States, supported by long-range artillery, air defence and other enabling capabilities. It would also mean more NATO fighters in our skies and more ships in the Baltic Sea. The work is under way and final decisions will be made at the NATO summit in Madrid in June.

Ukraine is not the victim of a one-time miscalculation by a madman. We are witnessing a long-planned campaign by the Kremlin to exert control over neighbouring countries by brute force, no matter the human cost. We need strategic patience and long-term persistence with policies to halt this aggression and to prevent new outbursts of it.

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine is an attack against humanity and its consequences will be global. It takes courage, moral clarity and action to stand up against it and stop it. We have promised “never again”. We must act now if we really want this to be the last time. Indifference is the mother of all crimes.

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Kaja Kallas is the prime minister of Estonia.






应邀参加｜俄罗斯和乌克兰
卡佳-卡拉斯谈乌克兰的暴行
爱沙尼亚总理认为，虽然苏联解体，但其帝国主义意识形态从未解体。

2022年4月6日


我写这篇文章的时候，世界已经被乌克兰基辅郊区的伊尔平和布卡的恐怖场景惊醒了。我们看到乱葬岗和被俄罗斯军队杀害的平民的照片。这些照片让爱沙尼亚人想起了苏维埃政权和NKVD（其执法部门）的杀戮。它的国家恐怖机器以完全相同的方式杀害了平民。驱逐出境和过滤营把我和其他每个爱沙尼亚家庭带回到苏联占领下的镇压和古拉格监狱营的痛苦记忆中。

将平民置于前线是俄罗斯的一种战争策略。证据是什么？平民受害者多于军人伤亡--特别是如果你考虑到乌克兰四分之一的人口被迫逃离家园或俄罗斯在马里乌波尔等城市策划的人道主义灾难并非偶然。根据国际法，以平民为目标是一种战争罪。乌克兰不是一个战场；它是一个犯罪现场。卢旺达和斯雷布雷尼察也是如此。


这些暴行的肇事者必须被绳之以法。自由世界应该对国际刑事法院首席检察官上个月发起的对战争罪和反人类罪的调查给予充分的支持，包括政治和实际支持。这些罪行不会过期，所以调查也不应该过期。我们仍然只知道俄罗斯军队所犯下的暴行的一小部分；克里姆林宫的暴行的真正规模还有待观察。

作为一名母亲，看到成千上万的人在乌克兰丧生，我的心很痛。克里姆林宫正派其年轻人去送死，并正在屠杀无辜的人，大肆炮击他们的家园。那是为了什么？为了弗拉基米尔-普京的帝国主义野心。现在已经非常清楚，虽然苏联崩溃了，但它的帝国主义意识形态从未崩溃。

乌克兰的痛苦和破坏远未结束，因为普京先生的战略目标没有改变。枪口下的谈判并没有提供避免另一场战争的神奇公式，不惜一切代价的和平并不意味着暴行会结束。在这里，我是从我自己国家的经验出发的。对爱沙尼亚和许多其他国家来说，第二次世界大战后，和平意味着苏联占领的开始，并带来巨大的人力成本。它通过大规模杀戮、镇压、大规模驱逐和其他反人类罪行带来了新的痛苦。

爱沙尼亚的经历提醒我们，我们今天的首要重点必须是如何帮助乌克兰从占领军手中解放出来，恢复其领土完整并阻止俄罗斯的侵略。我不能不佩服沃洛迪米尔-泽伦斯基所领导的勇敢斗争以及他所面临的极其困难的选择。


近几十年来，所有的警告信号都存在：帝国主义的怀旧情绪、俄罗斯受害者的叙述以及普京先生在车臣、格鲁吉亚、顿巴斯和克里米亚的战争。我们听到有人说，乌克兰--拥有4400万人口，是欧洲领土第三大的国家（仅次于俄罗斯和土耳其）--没有权利存在。12月，俄罗斯向北约发出最后通牒，要求限制其军队和武器的部署，实际上是要扭转北约成员的扩大，使其恢复到1997年的规模。

普京先生过去的三场战争说明了为什么他不能赢得这场战争，以及为什么不能允许莫斯科假装它在这个过程中获得了什么。现在我们不能再让他逃脱了。如果发生这种情况，他的胃口只会越来越大，更多的暴行和更多的人类痛苦将随之而来。

乌克兰危机再次清楚地表明，为什么中欧和东欧国家在摆脱苏联占领后，迅速要求加入北约。这个联盟的存在不是为了威胁俄罗斯：它是为了防御。它的存在是为了使数千万人不被独裁者奴役和屠杀。而正是苏联以及后来的俄罗斯的行为，解释了为什么这么多国家想要加入北约。那些指责北约 "扩张 "和 "升级 "的人，正是屈从于克里姆林宫所追求的帝国主义意识形态和语言。这些都与国家主权和民主的原则背道而驰。

我们正处在一个决定时代的时刻，我们现在做出的决定将伴随我们几十年。这场战争触及欧盟自己的边界。我们对乌克兰的反应和支持将决定我们大陆是否可能实现持久和平。我认为，我们需要采取的步骤应归入 "明智的遏制 "这一标签。

首先，对乌克兰的军事援助必须是我们的首要任务。这意味着，除其他事项外，发送乌克兰人需要并已要求的武器和物资。他们需要帮助，不仅是为了更好地保护他们的天空，而且是为了夺回他们的城市，把人民从俄罗斯的占领和镇压中解放出来。勇敢的乌克兰人民还没有厌倦，所以我们也不能。我们应该做的事情还有很多，我们必须在未来的几年里致力于此。

第二，我们必须从财政上解除克里姆林宫及其战争机器的武装。除非我们迅速榨干其收入，否则俄罗斯将能够继续其侵略和屠杀。去年，油气是俄罗斯国家预算收入的主要来源（超过40%）。今年，由于需求增加和价格上涨，它们正迅速变成最大的来源。如果自由世界想停止为普京先生的战争提供资金，我们的重点必须是尽快使这些收入枯竭。如果我们不准备一下子停止购买碳氢化合物，我们应该设立一个特殊的第三方托管账户，以保留为俄罗斯石油和天然气支付的部分资金。这将迅速减少克里姆林宫获得的收入。这将向普京先生发出一个明确的信号：这场战争将使俄罗斯付出巨大的代价。俄罗斯不仅要为其军队射出的每一颗子弹买单，而且还要为乌克兰境内被摧毁的每一座桥梁和被炮击的房屋买单。克里姆林宫必须为造成的损失付出应有的代价。


第三，北约必须表明，它有决心、有能力、有准备地捍卫其每一寸领土，并在必要时使用武力。有时，实现和平的最佳方式是愿意使用军事力量。

生活在自由世界的前线，意味着我们爱沙尼亚人必须为我们自己的防卫做更多的事情。我的政府已经决定大幅增加我们自己的贡献：明年我们的国防开支将超过北约的目标，即占国内生产总值的2%。我们将把它提高到GDP的2.5%。

我一直被问到，我是否认为爱沙尼亚会成为下一个被俄罗斯入侵的国家。我们应该尽一切努力确保没有国家会是下一个。如果我们的实力现在不能满足我们，那么问题就会变成北约是否是下一个。它是有史以来最成功的防御联盟，在其历史上从未被军事入侵过。这有一个明确的原因：它的威慑力已经发挥作用。为了保持它，我们需要做出努力，充分调整我们的军事态势。

我们需要对北约的防御态势进行长期的政策调整。这意味着在波罗的海国家长期驻扎更多的战斗准备部队，并得到远程火炮、防空和其他有利能力的支持。这也将意味着在我们的天空中有更多的北约战斗机，在波罗的海有更多的舰艇。这项工作正在进行中，最终决定将在6月马德里举行的北约峰会上做出。

乌克兰不是一个疯子的一次性误判的受害者。我们看到的是克里姆林宫长期策划的运动，它要通过蛮力对邻国实施控制，而不顾人的代价。我们需要战略上的耐心和长期坚持的政策，以制止这种侵略并防止其新的爆发。

俄罗斯对乌克兰的侵略是对人类的攻击，其后果将是全球性的。这需要勇气、道义上的清醒和行动来反对它并阻止它。我们已经承诺 "永不再犯"。如果我们真的希望这是最后一次，我们现在必须采取行动。漠不关心是所有罪行之母。

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卡贾-卡拉斯是爱沙尼亚总理。