2002.07.01 向纳斯卡的爸爸们问好

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POLITICS
Say Hello to NASCAR Dads
By William Schneider
JULY 1, 2002
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Every election year, some pollster discovers a new constituency that supposedly is the key to victory: "The (blanks) are swing voters. Their votes are up for grabs this year. Whoever wins the (blanks) will win the election." Sound familiar? "Soccer moms," say hello to "NASCAR dads."

Back in 1994, "angry white men" ruled the electorate. They were mad at President Clinton, and they brought Newt Gingrich to power as speaker of the House just to torment the president. In 1996, Clinton pollster Mark Penn discovered the counter to angry white men: "soccer moms." They were upscale suburban working mothers turned off by the meanness of the Republican-controlled Congress. Soccer moms wanted leaders who were nice to women. Clinton was nice to women—maybe too nice.


In 1998, Democratic pollster Celinda Lake identified the downscale counterpart to soccer moms: "waitress moms." These working moms were too busy trying to make ends meet to chauffeur their kids to soccer games. So, let Republicans talk about impeachment. Democrats would talk about economic security. Waitress moms ruled!

At least they did until 2000, when Penn's "wired workers"—well-educated, technology-savvy, and libertarian—were all the rage. Al Gore and George W. Bush both targeted those New Economy voters as the key to the future—or, at least, to victory.

Forlorn liberals could console themselves by reading Ruy Teixeira and Joel Rogers's 2000 book, America's Forgotten Majority. And who was that "forgotten majority"? The answer was in the book's subtitle: Why the White Working Class Still Matters. Think the "white working class" sounds a lot like the "Reagan Democrats"? Exactly. Teixeira and Rogers urged Democrats to re-embrace economic populism in order to woo back the Democrats who had defected to the GOP.

Gore tried. "Let's make sure that our prosperity enriches not just the few, but all working families," he exhorted fellow Democrats in accepting his party's presidential nomination. But, of course, Gore failed to capture the White House.

So, Democratic pollsters discovered a new neglected constituency that was slipping away from their party: men. But men are not exactly a sexy new target group. So Penn came up with "office park dads," the husbands of soccer moms. They're upscale men with college degrees and business careers. Attacking corporate America isn't likely to go over well with that constituency.

Now the liberals, led by Lake, are countering with "NASCAR dads," the husbands of waitress moms. They're the downscale counterpart to office park dads. They're guys with less college, more military experience. Their defining characteristic? NASCAR dads are fans of stock car racing, the fastest-growing sport in America. "While the waitress moms are watching Oprah, the NASCAR dads are watching the car races on television," Lake says.

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Why does every election cycle seem to reveal a new key constituency? Because the electorate is split so evenly between Democrats and Republicans. If one party targets a group that they say gives them an advantage, the other side has to counter with a different group—just as when soccer moms told the angry white men to shut up.

Now NASCAR dads are running over all those wired workers who got short-circuited by the dot-com bust. Focusing on NASCAR dads is supposed to help Democrats reclaim the votes of white men, as Mark Warner did last year in winning the governorship of Virginia. According to Lake, "One of the initial steps he took in his successful comeback campaign was sponsoring a NASCAR racing car." And Gov. Robert Wise of West Virginia defeated a Republican incumbent, Lake points out, after promising "as part of his economic development package to bring the first NASCAR racetrack to West Virginia."

When elections are close, every voter determines the outcome, and every group can be called a swing group. Jews? As a group, they haven't voted Republican in a presidential race since the New Deal. But political observers are now watching the Jewish vote to see whether President Bush's defiant support of Israel has an electoral payoff. African-Americans? They are the Democratic base, but if Republicans can just double their black support to 20 percent, that could be decisive in key states.

Hispanics? Pollster Sergio Bendixen cites surveys showing Bush making big inroads with Hispanic voters. Among Hispanics, Gore led Bush by 27 points in 2000. But a rematch would now be a near-tie, polls show. Of course, polls show Bush leading Gore by a big margin among all voters, meaning that Hispanics are simply part of a national trend.

Probably only one group could never be called swing voters: Christian conservatives. They're solidly Republican.

Democrats know that, as values-related issues have come to define party differences, upscale voters have trended Democratic while downscale voters have trended Republican. If you think Democrats should try to lock in the upscale vote, you talk about soccer moms and office park dads: economic conservatives, social moderates. If you think Democrats should try to reclaim blue-collar voters, you target waitress moms and NASCAR dads: economic populists, social conservatives.

Republicans have less trouble with swing voters. After all, look what happened to Reagan Democrats and angry white men. They're now called "Republicans."

William Schneider is the Cable News Network's senior political analyst. He is also a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C., and a contributing editor for the Los Angeles Times, National Journal, and The Atlantic Monthly. His column appears every week in National Journal, a weekly magazine covering politics and government published in Washington, D.C.




政治
向纳斯卡的爸爸们问好
作者：威廉-施奈德
2002年7月1日
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每到选举年，一些民意调查员都会发现一个新的选区，据说这是胜利的关键。"（空白处）是摇摆不定的选民。他们的选票今年将被争夺。谁赢得了（空白处），谁就能赢得选举"。听起来很熟悉吧？"足球妈妈"，向 "纳斯卡爸爸 "问好。

早在1994年，"愤怒的白人男子 "统治了选民。他们对克林顿总统很生气，他们让纽特-金里奇上台担任众议院议长，就是为了折磨总统。1996年，克林顿的民意调查员马克-潘恩发现了愤怒的白人男子的反面教材。"足球妈妈"。她们是高档郊区的工作母亲，对共和党控制的国会的卑鄙行为感到厌恶。足球妈妈们希望领导人对女性好。克林顿对女性很好，也许是太好。


1998年，民主党民调专家塞琳达-雷克(Celinda Lake)确定了与足球妈妈相对应的低档次人群。"女服务员妈妈"。这些工作的母亲忙于维持生计，没有时间为她们的孩子开车去看足球比赛。因此，让共和党人谈论弹劾问题。民主党人会谈论经济安全问题。服务员妈妈们统治了！至少在2000年之前是这样。

至少在2000年之前是这样，当时潘恩的 "有线工人"--受过良好教育、精通技术和自由主义--风靡一时。阿尔-戈尔和乔治-W-布什都把这些新经济选民作为未来的关键，或者至少是胜利的关键。

失望的自由主义者可以通过阅读鲁伊-特谢拉和乔尔-罗杰斯2000年出版的《美国被遗忘的大多数》一书来安慰自己。那 "被遗忘的大多数 "是谁呢？答案就在这本书的副标题中。为什么白人工人阶级仍然重要。你认为 "白人工人阶级 "听起来很像 "里根民主党人"？正是如此。特谢拉和罗杰斯敦促民主党人重新拥抱经济民粹主义，以争取那些投奔美国共和党的民主党人回来。

戈尔尝试过。"他在接受党内总统提名时劝说民主党同僚："让我们确保我们的繁荣不仅使少数人富裕，而且使所有劳动家庭富裕。但是，当然，戈尔没能入主白宫。

因此，民主党的民意调查人员发现了一个被忽视的新选民，这个选民正在从他们的政党中溜走：男人。但男性并不是一个性感的新目标群体。因此，潘恩想出了 "办公室公园的爸爸"，即足球妈妈的丈夫。他们是拥有大学学位和商业职业的高档男人。攻击美国企业不可能与这些选民打成一片。

现在，以雷克为首的自由派正在用 "纳斯卡爸爸"，即女服务员妈妈的丈夫来反击。他们是办公场所的父亲的下层对应物。他们是那些大学毕业率较低、军事经验较多的人。他们的显著特点是什么？纳斯卡爸爸是股票赛车的粉丝，这是美国增长最快的运动。"雷克说："当女服务员的妈妈们在看奥普拉时，纳斯卡的爸爸们在看电视上的汽车比赛。

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为什么每个选举周期似乎都会发现一个新的关键选区？因为选民在民主党和共和党之间是如此平均地划分。如果一方针对一个他们认为能给他们带来优势的群体，另一方就得用不同的群体来反击--就像当年足球妈妈们让愤怒的白人男子闭嘴一样。

现在，纳斯卡爸爸们正在碾压所有那些因网络公司破产而被短路的有线工人。关注纳斯卡父亲应该有助于民主党人夺回白人男子的选票，正如马克-华纳去年在赢得弗吉尼亚州州长职位时所做的那样。据莱克说，"他在成功复出的竞选中采取的最初步骤之一是赞助一辆纳斯卡赛车"。莱克指出，西弗吉尼亚州的罗伯特-怀斯州长在承诺 "作为其经济发展计划的一部分，将第一个纳斯卡赛车场引入西弗吉尼亚州 "后，击败了共和党的现任州长。

当选举接近时，每个选民都决定了结果，每个群体都可以被称为摇摆群体。犹太人呢？作为一个群体，自新政以来，他们还没有在总统选举中投过共和党的票。但政治观察家们现在正在关注犹太人的投票，看看布什总统对以色列的挑衅性支持是否有选举回报。非洲裔美国人？他们是民主党的基础，但如果共和党人能够将他们的黑人支持率提高一倍，达到20%，这在关键州可能是决定性的。

西班牙裔美国人？民意调查员塞尔吉奥-本迪森(Sergio Bendixen)引用的调查显示，布什在西班牙裔选民中取得了很大进展。2000年，在西班牙裔人中，戈尔以27个百分点领先于布什。但民意调查显示，现在的重赛将是一个接近平局的结果。当然，民意调查显示，布什在所有选民中都以很大的优势领先戈尔，这意味着西班牙裔人只是全国趋势的一部分。

可能只有一个群体永远不能被称为摇摆选民。基督教保守派。他们是坚定的共和党人。

民主党人知道，由于与价值观有关的问题已成为党派差异的定义，高档次的选民已趋于民主，而低档次的选民则趋于共和。如果你认为民主党人应该努力锁定高档选票，你就会谈论足球妈妈和办公区的爸爸：经济保守派，社会温和派。如果你认为民主党人应该努力夺回蓝领选民，你就把目标放在服务员妈妈和纳斯卡爸爸身上：经济民粹派，社会保守派。

共和党人在摇摆不定的选民方面问题较少。毕竟，看看里根民主党人和愤怒的白人男子发生了什么。他们现在被称为 "共和党人"。

威廉-施耐德是有线电视新闻网的高级政治分析员。他也是华盛顿特区美国企业研究所的常驻研究员，以及《洛杉矶时报》、《国家期刊》和《大西洋月刊》的特约编辑。他的专栏每周出现在《国家期刊》上，这是一本在华盛顿特区出版的报道政治和政府的周刊。