2022.03.05 俄罗斯和乌克兰都必须进行改革

shiyi18

By Invitation | Russia and Ukraine
Andrei Kozyrev says that there can be no return to normal business with Russia once the war ends
Russia’s former foreign minister argues that both Russia and Ukraine must reform instead

Mar 25th 2022

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The strength of Ukraine’s resistance and the amount of Western support it receives will determine how Vladimir Putin’s war there ends. Negotiations should be left to Ukraine and Russia, without Western interference. Discussion should also commence on what post-war Europe will be like. One of my country’s, and indeed the world’s, great writers, Leo Tolstoy, believed that nations with higher moral resolve win in war. And so they do in peace. The end of the conflict, which will come through negotiation, will provide both Russia and Ukraine an opportunity to conduct needed reforms.

Such opportunities have been squandered in the past. After Ukrainians and Russians defeated Nazi Germany in the 1940s, Joseph Stalin managed to keep his grip on power. And now the Kremlin abuses the glorious and painful memories of that victory to support its current exploits. When Ukraine gained independence in 1990 from the Soviet Union, robust nation-building and commitments to join European institutions did not emerge—in contrast with other countries in eastern Europe.


Ukraine’s courageous fighting boosts its national identity and international standing. Volodymyr Zelensky has emerged as a great war leader. But that is no reason for complacency. Ukraine is not in the eu at this tragic hour in part because it could not meet Western standards on law and order and on anti-corruption measures. It should make a greater effort to reform after the war in order to open Europe’s doors.

The West must double its support to the country in turn as it rebuilds and recovers. A Marshall plan of sorts will be needed and encouragement from the eu about its possible future membership in order to inspire it. (Several states already have spoken in support of the application it made to join just days into the war.) Failing to do so could have dire consequences. A nation in the centre of Europe subdued to Mr Putin’s control would set a dangerous precedent.

The prospect of a westernising, democratic and prosperous Ukraine is the nightmare of the Putin regime because it will be a powerful motivation for Russians to follow suit. In order to change, however, the country must be recognised for what it is—a nation under a belligerent and ruthless dictatorship—and treated by the West accordingly.

Mr Putin has stoked nationalism as a means of maintaining power. For years the Kremlin has cracked down on free speech and democracy, and proved its commitment to dominating Ukraine, undermining the West and protecting dictatorships as far away as Syria, Cuba and Venezuela. The West reacted with inadequate words and sluggish sanctions. (Dirty money has brought comfort to Russia’s elites and corruption to the West.) Mr Putin demands that nato backtrack from eastern and central Europe. The cold war’s divisive lines are back in Europe and beyond, like it or not. For the situation to change, Russia must change.


America and its allies at last imposed tough sanctions on Russia in recent weeks because it again violated the civilised norms of behaviour in Ukraine. Yet useful idiots or pseudo-experts on Russia who hold sympathies for autocratic leaders, such as Tucker Carlson on Fox News, are pushing for a prompt return to business as usual with Russia and its oligarchs. If they succeed, the sacrifices of Ukrainians and the discomfort of Western taxpayers will have been for nothing.

If the Kremlin gets away with this war, and business relations return to normal in its aftermath, the country’s aggression will continue to grow—with or without Mr Putin. The West should keep the bulk of its sanctions in place and maintain its military preparedness until the Kremlin respects the rights of its people, and of those in other countries, in line with international norms. Sadly, Russians will be badly affected by Western sanctions. But it will be impossible to hide the sanctions’ effects, even amid the mire of the Kremlin’s militarist propaganda. And only the country’s citizens can reform the regime.

If the West wants to save its zone of peace and prosperity it must welcome Ukraine in and keep Russia out. That means ending its treacherous dependence on Russian oil and gas. The present regime is too dangerous to carry on business with when the conflict eventually ends.

Andrei V. Kozyrev was Russia’s foreign minister between 1991 and 1996. He was twice elected as a member of the Duma, the Russian parliament. He has worked as a businessman since 2000 and has written two books: “The Firebird” (2019) and “The Caligula Curse” (2021).



应邀参加｜俄罗斯和乌克兰
安德烈-科济列夫表示，一旦战争结束，就不可能恢复与俄罗斯的正常业务往来
俄罗斯前外长认为，俄罗斯和乌克兰都必须进行改革。

2022年3月25日



乌克兰抵抗的力量和它得到的西方支持的数量将决定弗拉基米尔-普京在那里的战争如何结束。谈判应该由乌克兰和俄罗斯来进行，而不是由西方干预。也应该开始讨论战后的欧洲会是什么样子。我国乃至世界上最伟大的作家之一列夫-托尔斯泰认为，具有较高道德决心的国家在战争中获胜。他们在和平时期也是如此。冲突的结束将通过谈判实现，这将为俄罗斯和乌克兰提供一个进行必要改革的机会。

这样的机会在过去被浪费掉了。乌克兰人和俄罗斯人在1940年代击败纳粹德国后，约瑟夫-斯大林设法保持了对权力的控制。而现在，克里姆林宫滥用那次胜利的光荣和痛苦的记忆来支持其目前的剥削。当乌克兰于1990年从苏联获得独立时，并没有出现强有力的国家建设和加入欧洲机构的承诺--这与东欧其他国家形成鲜明对比。


乌克兰勇敢的战斗提升了其国家认同和国际地位。沃洛迪米尔-泽伦斯基已经成为一位伟大的战争领袖。但这并不是自满的理由。乌克兰在这个悲惨的时刻没有加入欧盟，部分原因是它在法律和秩序以及反腐败措施方面无法达到西方标准。它应该在战后做出更大的努力进行改革，以打开欧洲的大门。

在该国重建和恢复的过程中，西方必须反过来加倍支持它。需要一个类似于马歇尔计划的计划，并需要欧盟对其未来可能的成员资格给予鼓励，以激励它。(有几个国家已经表示支持它在战争刚开始几天时提出的加入申请）。如果不这样做，可能会产生可怕的后果。一个位于欧洲中心的国家屈服于普京先生的控制，将树立一个危险的先例。

一个西化、民主和繁荣的乌克兰的前景是普京政权的噩梦，因为它将成为俄罗斯人效仿的强大动力。然而，为了改变现状，必须承认这个国家是一个处于好战和无情的独裁统治下的国家，并由西方相应对待。

普京先生把煽动民族主义作为维持权力的一种手段。多年来，克里姆林宫一直在打击言论自由和民主，并证明其致力于支配乌克兰，破坏西方，保护远在叙利亚、古巴和委内瑞拉的独裁政权。西方的反应是不充分的言辞和迟缓的制裁。(脏钱给俄罗斯的精英们带来了安慰，给西方带来了腐败）。普京先生要求北约从东欧和中欧开倒车。不管你愿不愿意，冷战的分裂路线又回到了欧洲和其他地区。要改变这种局面，俄罗斯必须改变。


美国及其盟友在最近几周终于对俄罗斯实施了严厉的制裁，因为它在乌克兰再次违反了文明的行为准则。然而，对俄罗斯抱有同情心的有用的白痴或伪专家，如福克斯新闻的塔克-卡尔森，正在推动迅速恢复与俄罗斯及其寡头的正常关系。如果他们成功了，乌克兰人的牺牲和西方纳税人的不安就会白费。

如果克里姆林宫在这场战争中逃脱，并且在战争结束后商业关系恢复正常，那么无论普京先生在不在，该国的侵略行为都将继续增长。西方应该保持大部分的制裁措施，并保持军事准备，直到克里姆林宫按照国际规范尊重其人民和其他国家人民的权利。可悲的是，俄罗斯人将受到西方制裁的严重影响。但即使在克里姆林宫军国主义宣传的泥潭中，也不可能掩盖制裁的影响。而只有国家的公民才能改革政权。

如果西方想拯救其和平与繁荣区，它必须欢迎乌克兰加入，并将俄罗斯排除在外。这意味着结束其对俄罗斯石油和天然气的背叛性依赖。当冲突最终结束时，目前的政权太危险了，无法与之进行交易。

安德烈-V-科济列夫在1991年至1996年期间担任俄罗斯外交部长。他曾两次当选为俄罗斯议会杜马议员。自2000年以来，他一直作为商人工作，并写了两本书。"火鸟》（2019）和《卡里古拉的诅咒》（2021）。