2022.05.13 加密货币暴跌只是开始

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WORK IN PROGRESS
The Crypto Crash Is Just the Start
Is the U.S. destined to have a recession in 2022?

By Derek Thompson
A frowning face with two quarters for eyes
Adam Maida / The Atlantic
MAY 13, 2022, 10:35 AM ET
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The American economy isn’t looking great right now. U.S. GDP shrank last quarter, despite a hearty showing from American consumers. Inflation is high; markets are down; both wages and personal-savings rates show some troubling statistical signals. Is the U.S. destined to have a recession in 2022? I don’t know for sure. But here are nine signs that worry me.

1. Everybody’s stock portfolio is disgusting right now. The Nasdaq is down 30 percent. Growth stocks and pandemic darlings such as Peloton and Zoom have crashed more than twice that amount. Hedge funds that backed these growth stocks, including Ark and Tiger Global, have been crushed. If you look at your 401(k), you’ll see that … no, scratch that, you should under no circumstances look at your 401(k).


“The stock market is not the economy” is a thing that some people like to say. But it’s not a very useful mode of analysis. Health care isn’t the economy either, and neither is the gross metropolitan product of Los Angeles. But if either of those things crashed by 30 percent in a quarter, we would all agree that was important. Sharp declines in equity values can trickle down through the economy in all sorts of ways, discouraging investment and spending, or leading to a contagion of layoffs.

2. The crypto bubble has popped. Crypto fans had a fun ride, powered by exuberant risk taking in an era of low interest rates. But now the car is coming down the other side of the roller coaster. As fear and interest rates spike, investors are selling off their positions and billions of dollars of value are being erased from the industry. By one estimate, more than $200 billion of stock-market wealth has been destroyed within crypto alone, in just a matter of days. The bursting of the crypto bubble seems quite reminiscent of the dot-com bubble of 2000, when the Nasdaq crashed and the effects reverberated throughout the economy, wiping out retail investors and pulling down business investment until we ended up in a brief recession. If the crypto bubble popping were the only thing happening right now, I don’t think a recession would be likely. Except it’s not even close to the only (or even the most important) thing happening right now.


3. Inflation is very high and broad-based, and that’s bad. This week’s inflation headlines were a bit confusing. The Wall Street Journal reported that inflation had “eased.” The New York Times reported that prices are “rising rapidly,” at a pace close to a 40-year record. Who’s right? They both are. The rate of price increases is declining, but the level of price increases is still extremely high and frustratingly broad-based. Several months ago, some economists offered succor to worried consumers by pointing out that inflation was overwhelmingly about a handful of weird categories, such as used cars. Well, that’s no longer true. Today used-car prices are actually declining as inflation has moved on to service industries, such as restaurants and tourism. This week, gas prices hit their highest average nominal price ever. Inflation is bad for all sorts of reasons. People really hate it: The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment is near its 60-year low.

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4. A lot of people feel poorer than they did one year ago. Unemployment is very low, and the labor market is tight, which means workers can easily quit jobs and take new positions to make more money. (This trend is sometimes confusingly referred to as the “Great Resignation.”) That’s a nice situation. But inflation is rising every month, and raises rarely come more than once a year. That means “real,” or inflation-adjusted, wages are actually declining. Worse, according to the Atlanta Federal Reserve, wage growth is starting to level off, even as inflation continues to march on. This isn’t a tenable situation.

5. Savings are falling, and debt is rising. From 2020 to 2021, the U.S. government sent most American households several thousand dollars in checks to get them through the pandemic. With much of the economy shut down, many Americans held on to that stimulus cash, and the personal-savings rate soared to a 60-year record. But now Americans have spent just about all that cash, and the personal-savings rate has fallen to below its 2010s average. During an unstable moment for the economy—with markets collapsing, and inflation rising, and the Federal Reserve slamming the brakes on the economy—the typical household doesn’t have much in the way of protection. Instead consumer debt is breaking new record highs.

6. The Federal Reserve’s interest-rate hikes are already causing mayhem. One of the Federal Reserve’s mandates is to keep inflation around 2 percent. Well, so much for that one. Inflation has skyrocketed past 8 percent, leading the Fed to announce a spree of rate hikes designed to slow down economic activity. In theory, the plan works like this: The Federal Reserve raises interest rates, which makes it more expensive to borrow money for mortgages, cars, and business investments. As a result, investment in all those categories and more declines, and the economy cools off. But here’s the problem. Modern history has very few examples of unemployment this low and inflation this high where rate increases haven’t caused a recession. On the path to crushing inflation, the Fed may destroy trillions of dollars of wealth and economic activity.

7. China is a mess. The world’s second-largest economy has had a strange 2022. China’s zero-COVID policies have led to shocking lockdowns in major cities such as Shanghai, freezing economic activity. China is also dealing with a real-estate-investment implosion, falling business confidence, and startling declines in economic activity. Why is this troubling for the U.S.? Because China was projected to account for about one-quarter of global economic growth in the next few years. When China sneezes—or, more apt, when Chinese officials forcibly quarantine anybody who sneezes—the world could catch a cold. The U.S. might have been in a strong position to deal with a Chinese slowdown if its other trading partners were all doing well. But they’re not.

8. A recession is coming for Europe. The U.K. economy is shrinking, and the central bank says inflation will exceed 10 percent this year. War in Ukraine has sent energy prices skyrocketing throughout Europe, and most economists believe that the continent’s economy will contract this year. Europe seems very likely headed toward both stagnation and inflation—the dreaded combination that, 50 years ago, gave birth to the awful term stagflation. If Europe shrinks while Chinese growth decelerates, American exporters will have a hard time contributing to growing GDP.

9. Oh yeah, it’s still a pandemic. Restaurant activity and airline travel are nearly back to their pre-pandemic highs as most Americans return to something like “normal.” But we don’t know what else the virus and its variants are going to throw at us. Could the next variant be more transmissible and more deadly, and also get around our immunity? I hope not. But these are the 2020s. Anything is possible.

Derek Thompson is a staff writer at The Atlantic and the author of the Work in Progress newsletter.



正在进行的工作
加密货币暴跌只是开始
美国注定要在2022年出现经济衰退吗？

作者：德里克-汤普森
一张皱着眉头的脸，眼睛是两个25分硬币
亚当-迈达/《大西洋》杂志
2022年5月13日，美国东部时间上午10:35
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在此注册订阅德里克的通讯。

美国经济现在看起来并不怎么样。尽管美国消费者表现得很好，但美国上季度的GDP却出现了萎缩。通货膨胀很高；市场下跌；工资和个人储蓄率都显示出一些令人不安的统计信号。美国在2022年注定会出现经济衰退吗？我并不确定。但这里有九个迹象让我担心。

1. 现在每个人的股票组合都很恶心。纳斯达克指数下跌了30%。增长型股票和流行的宠儿，如Peloton和Zoom，已经崩溃了超过两倍的金额。支持这些成长股的对冲基金，包括Ark和Tiger Global，已经被击垮。如果你看一下你的401（k），你会发现......不，划掉，你在任何情况下都不应该看一下你的401（k）。


"股市不是经济 "是一些人喜欢说的一句话。但这并不是一个非常有用的分析模式。医疗保健也不是经济，洛杉矶的城市总产值也不是经济。但如果这些东西中的任何一个在一个季度内崩溃了30%，我们都会同意这很重要。股票价值的急剧下降会以各种方式渗透到经济中去，阻碍投资和支出，或导致裁员的蔓延。

2. 2.加密货币的泡沫已经破裂。在一个低利率的时代，加密货币的粉丝们有过一段快乐的旅程，这是由旺盛的冒险精神驱动的。但现在汽车正从过山车的另一边下来。随着恐惧和利率的飙升，投资者正在抛售他们的头寸，数十亿美元的价值正在从这个行业中被抹去。据估计，仅在短短几天内，就有超过2000亿美元的股票市场财富在加密货币中被摧毁。加密货币泡沫的破灭似乎很容易让人联想到2000年的网络泡沫，当时纳斯达克指数崩溃，其影响波及整个经济，使散户投资者损失惨重，拉低了商业投资，直到我们最终陷入短暂的衰退。如果加密货币泡沫破裂是现在唯一发生的事情，我不认为经济衰退是可能的。只不过它还不是现在唯一（甚至是最重要）的事情。


3. 通货膨胀非常高，而且基础广泛，这很糟糕。本周的通货膨胀头条新闻有点令人困惑。华尔街日报》报道说，通货膨胀已经 "缓和"。纽约时报》报道说，物价正在 "迅速上升"，其速度接近40年的记录。谁是正确的？他们都是。价格上涨的速度正在下降，但价格上涨的水平仍然非常高，而且令人沮丧地广泛。几个月前，一些经济学家为担心的消费者提供了帮助，指出通货膨胀绝大部分是关于少数奇怪的类别，如二手车。嗯，这不再是真的。今天，二手车价格实际上正在下降，因为通货膨胀已经转移到服务行业，如餐馆和旅游业。本周，汽油价格达到了有史以来最高的平均名义价格。通货膨胀因各种原因而不好。人们真的很讨厌它。密歇根大学的消费者情绪指数接近其60年来的最低点。

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4. 很多人感觉比一年前更穷。失业率很低，劳动力市场很紧张，这意味着工人可以很容易地辞掉工作，从事新的职位，赚更多的钱。(这种趋势有时被混淆地称为 "大辞职"。）这是一个很好的情况。但通货膨胀每个月都在上升，而加薪很少超过一年一次。这意味着 "实际"，或经通胀调整后的工资实际上在下降。更糟糕的是，根据亚特兰大联储的数据，工资增长开始趋于平缓，即使通货膨胀继续前进。这不是一个可行的情况。

5. 储蓄在减少，而债务在增加。从2020年到2021年，美国政府给大多数美国家庭发了几千美元的支票，让他们度过大流行。随着大部分经济的关闭，许多美国人持有这些刺激性现金，个人储蓄率飙升至60年的记录。但现在美国人已经花光了这些现金，个人储蓄率已经下降到2010年代的平均水平以下。在经济不稳定的时刻--市场崩溃，通货膨胀上升，美联储为经济踩下刹车--典型的家庭没有太多的保护。相反，消费者的债务正在打破新的记录高点。

6. 6.美联储的加息已经造成了混乱。美联储的任务之一是将通货膨胀率保持在2%左右。好吧，这一点就不说了。通货膨胀率已经飙升到8%以上，导致美联储宣布一连串的加息，旨在减缓经济活动。在理论上，该计划是这样运作的。美联储提高利率，这使得为抵押贷款、汽车和商业投资借钱更加昂贵。因此，所有这些类别和更多类别的投资都会下降，经济也会降温。但问题就在这里。现代历史上很少有失业率如此之低、通货膨胀如此之高的例子，在这种情况下，加息并没有造成经济衰退。在通往粉碎性通货膨胀的道路上，美联储可能会摧毁数万亿美元的财富和经济活动。

7. 7.中国是一个烂摊子。世界第二大经济体有一个奇怪的2022年。中国的零消费政策导致上海等主要城市出现令人震惊的封锁，冻结了经济活动。中国还在处理房地产投资内爆、商业信心下降和经济活动的惊人下降。为什么这对美国来说是个问题？因为在未来几年，中国预计将占全球经济增长的四分之一。当中国打喷嚏时，或者更恰当地说，当中国官员强行隔离任何打喷嚏的人时，世界就会感冒。如果美国的其他贸易伙伴都表现良好，美国可能会有能力应对中国的经济放缓。但它们不是。

8. 8.欧洲的经济衰退即将到来。英国经济正在萎缩，央行称今年的通货膨胀率将超过10%。乌克兰战争使整个欧洲的能源价格暴涨，大多数经济学家认为，欧洲大陆的经济今年将收缩。欧洲似乎很有可能同时走向停滞和通货膨胀--这种可怕的组合在50年前就诞生了滞胀这个可怕的术语。如果欧洲经济萎缩而中国经济增长减速，美国出口商将很难为国内生产总值的增长作出贡献。

9. 哦，是的，它仍然是一个大流行病。随着大多数美国人恢复到类似 "正常 "的状态，餐馆活动和航空旅行几乎恢复到大流行前的高点。但我们不知道病毒及其变种还会给我们带来什么。下一个变种会不会有更大的传播性和更大的杀伤力，而且还能绕过我们的免疫力？我希望不会。但现在是2020年代。一切皆有可能。

德里克-汤普森（Derek Thompson）是《大西洋》杂志的工作人员，也是《工作进展》通讯的作者。