2012.11.04 吉姆-克莱默的选举预测是疯狂的裤子

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POLITICS
Everyone Thinks Jim Cramer's Election Prediction is Crazy Pants Insane
CNBC's shouty money man Jim Cramer made the wildest, most outlandish prediction for the outcome of the Tuesday's election. Just about every other pundit thinks it's either an insane, amazing troll on the punditocracy or that Jim Cramer is on some very good drugs.

By Connor Simpson
NOVEMBER 4, 2012
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This article is from the archive of our partner .
CNBC's shouty money man Jim Cramer made the wildest, most outlandish prediction for the outcome of the Tuesday's election. Just about every other pundit thinks it's either an insane, amazing troll on the punditocracy or that Jim Cramer is on some very good drugs.

The Washington Post published a list of predictions from pundits and media personalities last night.  WaPo's politics editor Chris Cillizza is there beside Cramer, PBS Newshour' Christina Bellantoni, poker player Matt Matros, and one of the co-founders of Reddit. So we're working with a broad spectrum here. But seriously, just look at Cramer's prediction. It is nuts:


Uh, okay, Jim. That's Obama winning a whopping 440 votes in the electoral college. Cramer's only commentary on his prediction is, "the Presidential race is nowhere as close as the polls suggest." To which we say: apparently!

The guessing games that pundits do have been a hot topic of debate this week. Nate Silver, who runs the New York Times' FiveThirtyEight blog, has been predicting an 80% chance of an Obama victory. NBC's Joe Scarborough challenged Silver's prediction, and Silver countered with a $1,000 bet (for charity!) defending his work. Silver was criticized by the Times' public editor Margaret Sullivan for conduct unbecoming of a Times man.

Unsurprisingly, the Internet decided to have some fun with Cramer's outlandish fever dream. "Jim Cramer predicting Obama will get 440 electoral votes is exactly why pundits should be encouraged to bet," said Slate's Matt Yglesias. "I really can't fathom how Jim Cramer is coming up with that. I can't even make a fantasy map where that's remotely plausible," said Business Insider's Joseph Weisenthal. "Whatever Jim Cramer is smoking, I think I want some," said Mother Jones' Kevin Drum. Someone even started the requisite parody Twitter account @JimCramersMap, because nothing remotely amusing can happen anymore without getting its own Twitter account.

If you're wondering what Cramer's map might look like, the National Journal's Jim Tankersely was able to figure out a way Obama could get there:


We don't know what Cramer's up to, but boy do we like his chutzpah. More people should make ridiculous predictions like this. Let the Nate Silvers of the world take everything so seriously and get all but one state right, while the rest throw spaghetti against a wall for fun to see what sticks.

Or, seemingly like in Cramer's case, you could smoke a bowl and go to the mall to sort out your prediction with Zelda the All-Seeing Psychic and her magical crystal ball.

Update: Cramer responded to everyone laughing at him on Twitter:

All polls are focused on popular vote, which is a parlor game. It is the electorals that matter. That's the flaw..why don't people see that?

— Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) November 4, 2012
It might dawn on people scoffing about my call on the election, but i am basically taking the Over on Obama. Everyone else is too close

— Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) November 4, 2012
No one is going to recall the guy who picks Obama by 10 electorals if it turns out to be 150 margin.Believe me.

— Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) November 4, 2012
Plus, one more thing, this election is like the stock market, everyone's long a close race. Everyone. So i have to take the other side!!!!

— Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) November 4, 2012
Memo to Business Insider: 1. i think i will be pretty close on the election. and 2. Joe, your corrosion and cynicism should be tempered

— Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) November 4, 2012
Jim Cramer is an idiot who can't pick stocks, sports, or politics which is why no one ever seems to want to hear from him.....

— Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) November 4, 2012
This article is from the archive of our partner The Wire.
Connor Simpson is a former staff writer for The Wire. His work has appeared in Business Insider and CityLab.




政治
每个人都认为吉姆-克莱默的选举预测是疯狂的裤子。
CNBC的大嗓门财神爷吉姆-克莱默对星期二的选举结果做出了最疯狂、最离谱的预测。几乎所有其他专家学者都认为，这要么是对专家学者的疯狂、惊人的嘲弄，要么是吉姆-克莱默服用了一些非常好的药物。

作者：康纳-辛普森
2012年11月4日
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这篇文章来自我们的合作伙伴的档案。
CNBC的大嗓门财神爷Jim Cramer对周二的选举结果做出了最疯狂、最离谱的预测。几乎所有其他专家学者都认为，这要么是对专家学者的疯狂、惊人的嘲弄，要么是吉姆-克莱默服用了一些非常好的药物。

华盛顿邮报》昨晚公布了一份专家学者和媒体人士的预测清单。 华盛顿邮报的政治编辑Chris Cillizza在那里，旁边还有Cramer、PBS Newshour的Christina Bellantoni、扑克玩家Matt Matros以及Reddit的联合创始人之一。因此，我们在这里工作的范围很广。但说真的，看看克莱默的预测就知道了。这是很疯狂的。


呃，好吧，吉姆。奥巴马在选举人团中赢得了高达440票。克莱默对他的预测的唯一评论是，"总统竞选远没有民调显示的那么接近"。对此，我们说：显然如此。

专家们所做的猜测游戏是本周辩论的一个热门话题。经营《纽约时报》FiveThirtyEight博客的内特-西尔弗(Nate Silver)一直在预测奥巴马获胜的可能性为80%。NBC的乔-斯卡伯勒(Joe Scarborough)对西尔弗的预测提出质疑，而西尔弗则以1000美元的赌注（用于慈善！）作为反击，为自己的工作辩护。西尔弗被《泰晤士报》的公共编辑玛格丽特-沙利文批评为不符合泰晤士报人的行为。

不出所料，互联网决定对克莱默离奇的发烧梦进行一番嘲笑。"吉姆-克莱默预测奥巴马将获得440张选举人票，这正是应该鼓励专家们打赌的原因，"Slate的Matt Yglesias说。"我真的无法理解吉姆-克莱默是怎么想出来的。我甚至无法做出一个幻想中的地图，这在很大程度上是合理的，"Business Insider的Joseph Weisenthal说。"Mother Jones的Kevin Drum说："不管Jim Cramer在抽什么烟，我想我要来点。有人甚至在Twitter上开设了必要的模仿账户@JimCramersMap，因为现在没有什么有趣的事情可以不通过自己的Twitter账户发生。

如果你想知道克拉默的地图会是什么样子，《国家日报》的吉姆-坦克塞利(Jim Tankersely)就能想出一个奥巴马可以到达那里的方法。


我们不知道克莱默在搞什么鬼，但我们喜欢他的厚颜无耻。更多的人应该做这样的荒谬预测。让世界上的内特-西尔弗斯(Nate Silvers)把一切都看得那么认真，除了一个州之外，其他的人把意大利面条扔到墙上取乐，看看什么东西能粘住。

或者，似乎就像克拉默的情况一样，你可以抽一碗烟，然后去商场与全能通灵师塞尔达和她神奇的水晶球一起理清你的预测。

更新：Cramer在Twitter上回应了大家对他的嘲笑。

所有的民意调查都集中在民众投票上，这只是一个客厅游戏。重要的是选举人。这就是缺陷。为什么人们看不到这一点？

- Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) November 4, 2012
嘲笑我对选举的看法的人可能会恍然大悟，但我基本上是在对奥巴马采取过度的做法。其他人都太接近了

- Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) November 4, 2012
如果结果是150个选区，没有人会想起那个选择奥巴马的人，相信我。

- Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) November 4, 2012
另外，还有一件事，这次选举就像股票市场一样，每个人都在看多一场激烈的比赛。每个人都是如此。所以我必须站在另一边!!!!

- Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) November 4, 2012
给《商业内幕》的备忘录。1.我认为我对选举的看法会很接近。乔，你的腐蚀和愤世嫉俗应该有所收敛。

- Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) November 4, 2012
吉姆-克莱默是个白痴，不会选股票、体育和政治，这就是为什么似乎没有人愿意听他说.....。

- Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) November 4, 2012
这篇文章来自我们的合作伙伴The Wire的档案。
康纳-辛普森(Connor Simpson)是The Wire的前员工作家。他的作品曾出现在《商业内幕》和《城市实验室》上。