2022.02.28 乌克兰和俄罗斯之间的谈判结束时没有达成协议

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Updated less than 1 hour ago (19:03 GMT / 14:03 New York)


Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia ended without an agreement, according to Russian state media. The two delegations will reportedly return to their capitals before holding a second round of talks. Ukraine previously said it wants an immediate ceasefire and the withdrawal of Russian troops.

Russia enacted capital controls in an attempt to stem the damage from Western sanctions. The Kremlin barred Russians from transferring foreign currency overseas or servicing foreign-currency debt outside the country. The central bank reportedly ordered financial institutions to block foreign clients from selling Russian securities. Earlier it raised its key interest rate from 9.5% to 20% in an effort to prop up the rouble, which fell by as much as 30% against the dollar. Trading was halted on Moscow’s stock exchange.

Shell said it would exit its joint ventures with Gazprom, including its 28% stake in a major offshore gas project. Earlier BP said that it was getting rid of its 20% stake in Rosneft, Russia’s state-backed oil giant. Switzerland broke with its long tradition of neutrality and froze the assets of Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, and nearly 400 other Russians already targeted by EU sanctions.

Russia claimed to have seized two small cities in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya region, after Ukrainian officials claimed their forces had repulsed a Russian attack on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-biggest city. Kyiv, though, remains under siege. Britain’s defence ministry said the Russian advance had been frustrated by “logistical failures and staunch Ukrainian resistance”. Ukraine said it had killed an estimated 5,300 Russian troops. The UN confirmed that 102 civilians had been killed, warning that the real number could be “considerably higher”.

FIFA and UEFA, football’s global and European governing bodies, suspended Russia’s clubs and national teams from all competitions. The decision bars Russia from qualifying for the World Cup. The International Olympic Committee called for Russian and Belarusian athletes to be banned from all global sporting events. It said that in cases where it was impossible to stop them taking part, the athletes should not compete as representatives of their countries.

Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, asked the EU to immediately admit Ukraine as a member. Earlier, Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, said she wanted Ukraine eventually to join the bloc. “Over time, they belong to us,” she said. Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign-affairs chief, said members of the bloc would supply Ukraine with fighter jets.

European interior ministers promised that Ukrainian refugees would be allowed to enter the bloc without seeking asylum through normal processes. The UN estimates that 500,000 Ukrainian refugees—mostly older men, women and children—have left already. Millions more are expected to follow. Most are in neighbouring countries including Poland and Hungary. But others are joining families as far away as Greece.

Fact of the day: 1m-3m, the number of Ukrainians who might try to leave their country in the coming weeks, according to UN agencies. Read the full article.


China’s tightrope walk on Ukraine

PHOTO: PRESS ASSOCIATION
As the scale and violence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine become ever clearer, China is still trying to avoid any explicit criticism of the operation. On Friday it abstained from voting on a UN resolution condemning Russia (that Russia itself vetoed). But maintaining this stance will become trickier for China’s diplomats as casualties mount and the West ratchets up economic sanctions against Russia. Bloomberg reports that at least two of China’s big state-owned banks are restricting financing for purchases of Russian commodities. This suggests concern about repercussions for their business should they be deemed to be undermining sanctions.

It is unclear how much China knew in advance about Russia’s plans and how prepared it was for the diplomatic fallout. The New York Times reports that America presented Chinese officials with intelligence on Russia’s troop build-up before the invasion, but were rebuffed. Even if China was surprised, however, it will not show public irritation with Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin.

Isolating Russia’s central bank

Western sanctions on Russia have tended to be long on macho rhetoric and short on impact. But new measures targeting Russia’s financial system, and in particular its central bank, are brutal. It holds $630bn of foreign reserves, equivalent to 38% of Russia’s GDP in 2021. Although Russia has shifted the composition of its reserves away from dollars, it is likely that the majority of its holdings are held with financial institutions, or in jurisdictions, that will enforce Western sanctions. That means some, or even much, of Russia’s national war chest can be frozen.

If the central bank does not have instant access to the reserves it will be hard for it to intervene in the currency market or to offer foreign-currency liquidity to banks. That all points to an intensifying panic in Russia’s financial system. On Monday the ruble fell by 30% and the central bank raised interest rates to 20%, cancelled share trading for at least a day, and introduced some capital controls.

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Germany’s security-policy U-turn

PHOTO: REUTERS
For decades Germany, under American protection, has shied away from military operations and neglected its armed forces. Donald Trump only managed to persuade a reluctant Angela Merkel into spending the 2% of GDP on defence required of NATO members by 2031. But Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, has succeeded in bringing that date forward considerably, and more.

On Sunday Olaf Scholz, Mrs Merkel’s successor as chancellor, performed an astonishing about-face. He told the Bundestag that Germany will raise military spending above the 2% threshold “from now on” and even proposed putting the figure in the constitution. He will put €100bn ($113bn) this year into a special fund to modernise the armed forces. And he will send defensive weapons to Ukraine. He also vowed to boost Germany’s presence in NATO countries in eastern Europe.

Just a few days ago Germany appeared loth to halt Nord Stream 2, a gas pipeline from Russia. That changed when Russia invaded Ukraine. Mr Putin’s war, said Mr Scholz, had “created a new reality”. And how.

A new report on climate change

PHOTO: AFP
With temperatures on Earth currently around 1.1-1.3°C above pre-industrial levels, the impacts of global warming are already more severe than previously thought, and they are accelerating faster. At least 3.3bn people are now vulnerable to climate change. These bleak conclusions come from a new report, released on Monday, by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change—its most comprehensive assessment ever of the consequences of a warming world.

Since 2014, when the report’s predecessor came out, scientific understanding of how humanity has changed the climate has advanced. So has the pace of climate change itself, including more extreme weather events. Scientists now have a clearer picture of what is to come, and more empirical evidence that some natural systems and human societies are already approaching the limits of possible adaptation. Every time temperatures rise by even a fraction of a degree, the scope for the world to cope becomes more constrained.


Roadblocks to India’s economic recovery

PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES
Last year India’s government said the country was on track to have the “fastest-growing economy in the world”. Such optimism may be premature. Growth rates of 20.1% and 8.4% in the first two quarters of the 2021-22 financial year were flattered by comparison periods at the start of the pandemic. The release today of GDP data for the quarter ending December 2021 revealed growth slowing to 5.4% compared with the same period a year earlier, when covid-19 was less rampant.

Growth could slow even further in the quarter that is now under way. Omicron-related restrictions introduced in January hit economic activity. The war in Ukraine could be an even bigger dampener. As a big importer of oil India is sensitive to its price, which has surged. According to one estimate, a 10% increase in the crude-oil price could cut GDP growth rates by 0.2 percentage points. Inflation, already bubbling, could also soar.


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Monday: Which American composer was responsible for such notable movie themes as “The Magnificent Seven” and “The Great Escape”?

Politics determines who has the power, not who has the truth.

Paul Krugman



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据俄罗斯国家媒体报道，乌克兰和俄罗斯之间的谈判结束时没有达成协议。据报道，两国代表团将在举行第二轮会谈前返回各自首都。乌克兰此前表示，它希望立即实现停火并撤出俄罗斯军队。

俄罗斯颁布了资本管制措施，试图阻止西方制裁造成的损害。克里姆林宫禁止俄罗斯人将外币转移到海外或在国外偿还外币债务。据报道，中央银行命令金融机构阻止外国客户出售俄罗斯证券。早些时候，它将关键利率从9.5%提高到20%，以支撑卢布，卢布对美元的汇率下跌了30%之多。莫斯科的证券交易所停止了交易。

壳牌公司表示，它将退出与俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司的合资企业，包括其在一个主要海上天然气项目中的28%股份。早些时候，英国石油公司表示，它正在摆脱其在俄罗斯国家支持的石油巨头Rosneft的20%股份。瑞士打破了其长期以来的中立传统，冻结了俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔-普京以及其他近400名已经被欧盟制裁的俄罗斯人的资产。

在乌克兰官员声称他们的部队击退了俄罗斯对乌克兰第二大城市哈尔科夫的进攻之后，俄罗斯声称已经占领了乌克兰扎波罗热地区的两个小城市。不过，基辅仍然被围困。英国国防部表示，俄罗斯的进攻因 "后勤故障和乌克兰的顽强抵抗 "而受挫。乌克兰说，它已经杀死了大约5300名俄罗斯军队。联合国证实有102名平民被杀，并警告说实际数字可能 "高得多"。

国际足联和欧足联，即全球和欧洲的足球管理机构，暂停了俄罗斯的俱乐部和国家队的所有比赛。该决定禁止俄罗斯获得世界杯的资格。国际奥林匹克委员会呼吁禁止俄罗斯和白俄罗斯的运动员参加所有全球体育赛事。它说，在不可能阻止他们参加的情况下，运动员不应该作为他们国家的代表参加比赛。

乌克兰总统沃洛季米尔-泽伦斯基要求欧盟立即接纳乌克兰为成员。早些时候，欧盟委员会主席乌苏拉-冯德莱恩说，她希望乌克兰最终能加入该集团。"她说："随着时间的推移，他们属于我们。欧盟外交事务主管Josep Borrell说，集团成员将向乌克兰提供战斗机。

欧洲各国内政部长承诺，乌克兰难民将被允许进入集团而无需通过正常程序寻求庇护。联合国估计有50万乌克兰难民--主要是老年男子、妇女和儿童--已经离开。预计还有数百万人将陆续离开。大多数人在包括波兰和匈牙利在内的邻国。但也有一些人正在加入远在希腊的家庭。

今天的事实。据联合国机构称，100万至300万乌克兰人可能在未来几周内试图离开他们的国家。阅读全文。


中国在乌克兰问题上的 "走钢丝 "行动

照片。新闻协会
随着俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的规模和暴力变得越来越清晰，中国仍在努力避免对该行动进行任何明确的批评。周五，中国对谴责俄罗斯的联合国决议投了弃权票（俄罗斯自己否决了该决议）。但是，随着伤亡人数的增加和西方对俄罗斯经济制裁的加强，对中国的外交官来说，保持这一立场将变得更加棘手。彭博社报道说，至少有两家中国的大型国有银行正在限制对俄罗斯商品的购买融资。这表明，如果他们被认为是在破坏制裁，他们的业务会受到影响。

目前还不清楚中国事先对俄罗斯的计划有多少了解，以及对外交影响的准备程度。纽约时报》报道说，美国在入侵前向中国官员提供了关于俄罗斯军队集结的情报，但遭到了拒绝。然而，即使中国感到惊讶，它也不会对俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔-普京公开表示恼怒。

孤立俄罗斯的中央银行

西方对俄罗斯的制裁往往是长于大男子主义的言辞而短于影响。但针对俄罗斯金融系统，特别是其中央银行的新措施是残酷的。它持有6300亿美元的外汇储备，相当于2021年俄罗斯GDP的38%。尽管俄罗斯已经将其储备的构成从美元转移到了其他国家，但其持有的大部分外汇储备可能是由将执行西方制裁的金融机构或司法机构持有的。这意味着俄罗斯的一些，甚至是大部分的国家战争资金可能被冻结。

如果中央银行不能立即获得这些储备，它将很难干预货币市场或向银行提供外币流动性。这一切都表明，俄罗斯的金融系统的恐慌正在加剧。周一，卢布下跌了30%，中央银行将利率提高到20%，取消了至少一天的股票交易，并引入了一些资本控制。

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每周六次在早餐前送达。

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德国的安全政策大转弯

照片。REUTERS
几十年来，在美国的保护下，德国一直回避军事行动，忽视了其武装部队。唐纳德-特朗普只设法说服不情愿的安格拉-默克尔在2031年前将国内生产总值的2%用于北约成员的国防开支。但俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔-普京已经成功地将这一日期大大提前，而且更多。

周日，默克尔夫人的总理继任者奥拉夫-肖尔茨(Olaf Scholz)做了一个惊人的转变。他告诉联邦议院，德国将 "从现在开始 "把军费开支提高到2%的门槛以上，甚至提议把这个数字写入宪法。他今年将向一个特别基金投入1000亿欧元（1130亿美元），以实现武装部队的现代化。他还将向乌克兰运送防御性武器。他还发誓要加强德国在东欧北约国家的存在。

就在几天前，德国似乎不愿意停止来自俄罗斯的天然气管道--北溪2号。这在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰时发生了变化。肖尔茨先生说，普京先生的战争 "创造了一个新的现实"。以及如何。

一份关于气候变化的新报告

照片。法新社
目前，地球上的温度比工业化前的水平高出1.1-1.3摄氏度左右，全球变暖的影响已经比以前想象的更加严重，而且正在加速。现在至少有33亿人容易受到气候变化的影响。这些暗淡的结论来自政府间气候变化专门委员会周一发布的一份新报告--它对世界变暖的后果进行了最全面的评估。

自2014年该报告的前身问世以来，对人类如何改变气候的科学理解已经取得进展。气候变化本身的速度也是如此，包括更多的极端天气事件。科学家们现在对将要发生的事情有了更清晰的认识，并且有更多的经验证据表明，一些自然系统和人类社会已经接近可能的适应极限。每当气温上升哪怕是零点几度，世界的应对范围就会变得更加受限。


印度经济复苏的路障

照片。GETTY IMAGES
去年，印度政府表示，该国有望成为 "世界上经济增长最快的国家"。这种乐观情绪可能为时过早。2021-22财政年度前两个季度的增长率为20.1%和8.4%，与大流行病开始时的对比时期相比，显得有些平淡。今天发布的截至2021年12月的季度GDP数据显示，与一年前的同期相比，增长放缓至5.4%，当时covid-19没有那么猖獗。

在目前正在进行的这一季度，增长可能进一步放缓。1月份推出的与欧米茄有关的限制措施打击了经济活动。乌克兰的战争可能是一个更大的抑制因素。作为一个大的石油进口国，印度对石油价格很敏感，而石油价格已经飙升。根据一项估计，原油价格上涨10%会使GDP增长率下降0.2个百分点。已经在冒泡的通货膨胀也可能飙升。


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政治决定了谁拥有权力，而不是谁拥有真理。

保罗-克鲁格曼