2022.04.28 日元兑美元跌至二十年来的低点

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Vladimir Putin warned Western countries to expect a “lightning-fast” response if they meddle in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “We have all the tools no one can boast of,” he went on. Given the ponderous pace of Russia’s current attack, it seems likely he was referring to his nuclear arsenal. Britain’s foreign minister promised to go “further and faster to push Russia out of the whole of Ukraine”. She also said the West would similarly come to the aid of Moldova if Russia were to invade there.

The secretary-general of the United Nations, António Guterres, visited Bucha, the site of Russian atrocities. He is due to meet Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, in Kyiv on Thursday, having met Mr Putin in Moscow on Wednesday. He emphasised the need for humanitarian corridors to Mr Putin, particularly out of the besieged city of Mariupol. Meanwhile in America, Joe Biden is slated to deliver an address on Ukraine’s plight. Earlier the White House said that Russia was “almost weaponising energy supplies” after it cut gas deliveries to Bulgaria and Poland.

Microsoft said that Kremlin-backed hackers have launched hundreds of cyber-attacks on Ukraine, seemingly timed to support Russia’s “kinetic military operations”, such as bombing communications infrastructure. They have also been spreading propaganda, for instance telling civilians in Mariupol that Ukrainian troops had abandoned them. Other analysts have expressed surprise at Russia’s previously lacklustre attempts at cyber-warfare.

Japan’s yen fell to a two-decade low against the dollar after the country’s central bank reiterated its commitment to keeping interest rates low and continuing its massive stimulus programme. At its latest meeting on Thursday, the Bank of Japan said policy interest rates would remain at “present or lower levels” despite inflation creeping towards its 2% target.

Meta’s share price rose by nearly a fifth in post-session trading after it reported that daily active users of Facebook increased by 4% year over year, to 1.96bn, in the most recent quarter. The social-media firm also booked its slowest quarterly sales growth since going public a decade ago—yet with revenues of $27.9bn, this was up by 7% year-on-year, and a kind of relief one day after disappointing figures from Alphabet.

Several parts of Beijing, including residential compounds, schools and office blocks, were locked down as officials sought to stem the spread of covid-19. Fifty new infections were reported on Thursday in China’s capital, after nearly 20 million samples were acquired in the first of three rounds of mass testing. By testing nearly the entire city, authorities are hoping to avert a full-scale lockdown like in Shanghai.

Unilever, the consumer goods giant, said it raised prices by more than 8% in the first quarter of 2022, reducing demand for its goods. It also warned that inflation would accelerate in the second half of the year. Meanwhile Sainsbury’s, a British supermarket, said inflation would cut it into its profits. Spooked investors drove the retailer’s share price down in response, despite a healthy first-quarter profit.

Fact of the day: 5.9m, the number of items blocked by Twitter in the first half of 2021, up from 1.9m in 2019. Read the full article.


A sharp but ephemeral slowdown in America

PHOTO: DAVE SIMONDS
As a snapshot of the American economy, it will be ugly. Data due out on Thursday will probably show that growth in the first quarter of 2022 slumped to an annual pace of about 1%. That is down from nearly 7% in the final quarter of 2021.

But snapshots can be misleading, not least when GDP is in focus. The oddities of growth accounting explain the slowdown. A build-up of retail inventories puffed up GDP late last year; a run-down of them subtracted from it early this year. Growth is expected to rebound to closer to 3% over the remainder of 2022.

The bigger worry is inflation, now running at a four-decade high. That makes it all but certain that the Federal Reserve will jack up interest rates in the coming months. One quarter of superficially weak growth will not change that.


Russia’s paper bear

PHOTO: PRESS ASSOCIATION
Russia’s army was supposed to be a world-beating force. After botching a war with Georgia in 2008 it was slashed in size, showered with cash and battle-hardened in eastern Ukraine and Syria. But its performance in Ukraine this year has been a shambles, prompting some Western officials to wonder if it is a paper bear. Russia’s invasion has been marred by poor planning and disgruntled soldiers. A lot of the army’s problems—such as endemic corruption, rigid logistics and the absence of a cadre of non-commissioned officers—are structural.


One senior NATO official warns that it is too early to draw sweeping conclusions. “The war is still going on,” he cautions. “Both sides are adapting.” But a retired European general says he is reminded of his visits to East Germany and Poland after the fall of the Berlin Wall. “We realised how shite the 3rd Shock Army was,” he says, referring to a much-vaunted Soviet formation. “We’ve again allowed ourselves to be taken in by some of the propaganda that they put our way.”

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Oil majors in the black

PHOTO: DPA
This time last year oil bosses were thirsty for good news after the covid-induced global slowdown inflicted multibillion dollar losses across their industry. But when oil majors ExxonMobil and Chevron report earnings on Friday, today’s high oil prices mean analysts are predicting profits at a level not seen since 2008. Brent crude, the international benchmark, averaged $98 per barrel over the first quarter of 2022, 18% higher than in the previous three months. TotalEnergies, which published results on Thursday, certainly benefited from the spike: its profit was three times higher than the previous quarter, prompting the company to boost share buybacks.

Will the good times endure? Oil prices may spike again if the war in Ukraine escalates. But rising interest rates in big economies could dampen demand, and thus profits. And the conflict comes with other challenges: Total recorded a $4.1bn writedown due to worries that sanctions will quash hopes of a big new Russian project. Such uncertainty makes investment in new extraction less appealing; increased cash flows may instead be ploughed into share buybacks and dividend payouts. Still, shareholders who clung on through the dark days of 2020 will at least see their patience rewarded.

Erdogan builds bridges in Saudi Arabia

PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES
Not long ago, a handshake between Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s president, and Muhammad bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, would have been unimaginable. But it will take place on Thursday, when Mr Erdogan arrives in Saudi Arabia. In 2018 relations between the two leaders, already strained, turned toxic after a Saudi hit squad murdered Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi dissident journalist, inside the country’s consulate in Istanbul.

Needs must, however. With an economy hobbled by 61% inflation, and in desperate need of a cash injection from abroad, Turkey is trying to build bridges with its former foe. Prince Muhammad relented only after Turkey transferred the trial of 26 Saudis accused of killing Mr Khashoggi to Saudi Arabia. The crown prince, widely believed to have ordered the murder, was never expected to answer for the crime. But any hope that the people who carried it out would see justice has now disappeared.


Keeping the NFL competitive

PHOTO: AP
How do you keep a sports league competitive? Bayern Munich have just won their tenth consecutive German Bundesliga, while Paris St Germain have taken the French title eight times in the past ten years. One potential solution could be to bring young players into teams through a draft system, as America’s National Football League has done since 1936.

In the NFL system, teams are ranked in reverse order based on their performance in the previous season. Those that fared worst get the first pick of emerging talent from the country’s colleges. For this year’s draft, which begins in Las Vegas on Thursday, the Jacksonville Jaguars get first dibs. The idea is not perfect. Teams are sometimes accused of intentionally losing games once out of contention for the playoffs in order to get a better draft ranking the following season. But the NFL is more competitive than many European leagues: 13 different teams have won the Super Bowl in the past 20 years.

Daily quiz

Our baristas will serve you a new question each day. On Friday your challenge is to give all five answers and tell us the connecting theme. Email your responses (and include mention of your home city and country) by 1700 BST on Friday to QuizEspresso@economist.com. We’ll pick randomly from those with the right answers and crown one winner per continent on Saturday.

Thursday: Who was the oldest child of Henry VIII?

Wednesday: Which Channel Island bans cars and has a parliament called the Chief Pleas?

The feelings of desperation and unhappiness are more useful to an artist than the feeling of contentment, because desperation and unhappiness stretch your whole sensibility.

Francis Bacon





弗拉基米尔-普京警告西方国家，如果他们插手俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵，就会有 "闪电般的 "反应。"他接着说："我们拥有无人能夸耀的所有工具。鉴于俄罗斯目前的攻击速度令人费解，他似乎很可能是指其核武库。英国外长承诺将 "更进一步、更快一步，将俄罗斯赶出整个乌克兰"。她还表示，如果俄罗斯入侵摩尔多瓦，西方也将同样向该国提供援助。

联合国秘书长安东尼奥-古特雷斯访问了俄罗斯暴行发生地布卡。他将于周四在基辅会见乌克兰总统沃洛季米尔-泽伦斯基，周三他在莫斯科会见了普京先生。他向普京先生强调了建立人道主义走廊的必要性，特别是离开被围困的马里乌波尔市。同时在美国，乔-拜登将就乌克兰的困境发表讲话。早些时候，白宫表示，俄罗斯在切断对保加利亚和波兰的天然气供应后，"几乎将能源供应武器化"。

微软表示，克里姆林宫支持的黑客对乌克兰发动了数百次网络攻击，似乎是为了支持俄罗斯的 "动能军事行动"，如轰炸通信基础设施。他们还一直在传播宣传，例如告诉马里乌波尔的平民，乌克兰军队已经抛弃了他们。其他分析人士对俄罗斯此前在网络战方面的乏力尝试表示惊讶。

在日本央行重申致力于保持低利率并继续实施大规模刺激计划后，日本日元兑美元跌至二十年来的低点。在周四的最新会议上，日本央行表示，尽管通胀率正在向2%的目标爬升，但政策利率将保持在 "目前或更低的水平"。

美达公司的股价在盘后交易中上涨了近五分之一，此前该公司报告称，最近一个季度Facebook的日活跃用户同比增长了4%，达到19.6亿人。这家社交媒体公司还公布了自十年前上市以来最缓慢的季度销售增长--但收入为279亿美元，同比增长了7%，在Alphabet令人失望的数据后的一天，这也是一种解脱。

北京的几个地方，包括住宅区、学校和办公区，都被封锁了，因为官员们试图阻止covid-19的传播。周四，在三轮大规模检测中的第一轮获得近2000万个样本后，中国首都报告了50个新的感染病例。通过测试几乎整个城市，当局希望避免像上海那样的全面封锁。

消费品巨头联合利华表示，它在2022年第一季度提价超过8%，减少了对其商品的需求。它还警告说，今年下半年的通货膨胀将加速。同时，英国超市Sainsbury's表示，通货膨胀将削减它的利润。受惊的投资者促使该零售商的股价应声下跌，尽管第一季度的利润还算健康。

今天的事实。590万，2021年上半年被Twitter屏蔽的项目数量，高于2019年的190万。阅读全文。


美国经济急剧但短暂的放缓

照片。DAVE SIMONDS
作为美国经济的一个缩影，它将是丑陋的。周四公布的数据可能会显示，2022年第一季度的增长速度下滑到了1%左右。这比2021年最后一个季度的近7%有所下降。

但快照可能具有误导性，尤其是当GDP成为焦点时。增长核算的怪异现象解释了放缓的原因。去年年底，零售库存的增加推高了GDP；今年年初，零售库存的减少又减弱了GDP。在2022年的剩余时间里，增长预计将反弹至接近3%。

更令人担忧的是通货膨胀，现在正处于四十年来的高位。这使得美联储几乎可以肯定将在未来几个月内提高利率。一个季度的表面疲软增长不会改变这一点。


俄罗斯的纸熊

照片。新闻协会
俄罗斯的军队本应是一支举世瞩目的力量。在2008年与格鲁吉亚的战争中失败后，它被削减了规模，获得了大量现金，并在乌克兰东部和叙利亚进行了战斗演练。但它今年在乌克兰的表现却一塌糊涂，促使一些西方官员怀疑它是否是一只纸老虎。俄罗斯的入侵被糟糕的计划和不满的士兵所破坏。军队的很多问题--如地方性腐败、僵化的后勤保障和缺乏军士骨干--都是结构性的。


一位北约高级官员警告说，现在得出全面的结论还为时过早。"他告诫说："战争仍在进行中。"双方都在适应。" 但一位退休的欧洲将军说，他想起了柏林墙倒塌后他对东德和波兰的访问。他说："我们意识到第三冲击军是多么的糟糕，"他指的是一个备受推崇的苏联编队。"我们再次允许自己被他们对我们进行的一些宣传所迷惑。"

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石油巨头处于亏损状态

照片。DPA
去年的这个时候，石油老板们渴求着好消息，因为贪污引起的全球经济放缓给整个行业带来了数十亿美元的损失。但是，当石油巨头埃克森美孚和雪佛龙在周五公布收益时，今天的高油价意味着分析师预测利润将达到2008年以来的水平。作为国际基准的布伦特原油在2022年第一季度平均每桶98美元，比前三个月高出18%。周四公布业绩的道达尔能源公司(TotalEnergies)无疑从这一飙升中受益：其利润是上一季度的三倍，促使该公司增加股票回购。

好日子会持续下去吗？如果乌克兰的战争升级，油价可能再次飙升。但大型经济体的利率上升可能会抑制需求，从而影响利润。而且，冲突还带来了其他挑战。道达尔公司录得41亿美元的减记，因为担心制裁将使俄罗斯的一个大型新项目的希望破灭。这种不确定性使得对新开采项目的投资不那么有吸引力；增加的现金流可能会被用于股票回购和派发股息。尽管如此，那些在2020年的黑暗日子里坚持下来的股东至少会看到他们的耐心得到回报。

埃尔多安在沙特阿拉伯架起桥梁

照片。GETTY IMAGES
不久前，土耳其总统雷杰普-塔伊普-埃尔多安与沙特阿拉伯王储穆罕默德-本-萨勒曼之间的握手是不可想象的。但它将在周四发生，届时埃尔多安先生将抵达沙特阿拉伯。2018年，两位领导人之间的关系已经很紧张，在一个沙特杀手小组在沙特驻伊斯坦布尔领事馆内谋杀了沙特持不同政见的记者Jamal Khashoggi后，关系变得很紧张。

然而，需求是必须的。土耳其的经济因61%的通货膨胀而步履维艰，而且迫切需要来自国外的现金注入，因此，土耳其正试图与它的前敌国建立联系。只有在土耳其将被指控杀害卡舒吉先生的26名沙特人的审判移交给沙特阿拉伯后，穆罕默德王子才有所松动。人们普遍认为是王储下令谋杀的，但从未指望他为这一罪行负责。但是，实施谋杀的人看到正义的任何希望现在已经消失了。


保持NFL的竞争力

照片。美联社
你如何保持一个体育联盟的竞争力？拜仁慕尼黑刚刚赢得了他们的第十次德甲联赛，而巴黎圣日耳曼在过去十年中八次夺得法国冠军。一个潜在的解决方案可能是通过选秀制度将年轻球员带入球队，就像美国的国家橄榄球联盟自1936年以来所做的那样。

在美国国家橄榄球联盟的系统中，球队根据他们在前一个赛季的表现，按相反的顺序进行排名。那些表现最差的球队可以从全国大学的新兴人才中获得第一选择。对于今年的选秀，周四在拉斯维加斯开始，杰克逊维尔美洲虎队获得了第一顺位。这个想法并不完美。球队有时被指责为故意输掉比赛，一旦失去了争夺季后赛的资格，以便在下个赛季获得更好的选秀排名。但NFL比许多欧洲联赛更具竞争力。在过去的20年里，有13支不同的球队赢得了超级碗。

每日小测验

我们的咖啡师每天都会为你提供一个新问题。在周五，你的挑战是给出所有五个答案，并告诉我们连接的主题。在北京时间周五17点前，将你的回答（包括提及你的家乡城市和国家）发到 QuizEspresso@economist.com。我们将从正确的答案中随机挑选，并在周六为每个大洲选出一名获胜者。

星期四。谁是亨利八世的最大的孩子？

星期三。哪个海峡岛国禁止汽车，并有一个叫做首席法官的议会？

对一个艺术家来说，绝望和不快乐的感觉比满足的感觉更有用，因为绝望和不快乐使你的整个感性得到延伸。

弗朗西斯-培根