2022.09.06 中国的经济会不会超过美国？

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Will China’s economy ever overtake America’s?
Some economists think not
BIJIE, CHINA - AUGUST 23, 2022 - A large number of people spend money in Bijie, Guizhou Province, China, on the night of Aug 23, 2022. (Photo credit should read CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images)
Sep 6th 2022

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China was once, centuries ago, the world’s biggest economy. Many analysts expect it to regain that distinction in due course. But a host of difficulties besetting the Asian giant, some of which are self-inflicted, will delay the day it overtakes America to return to pole position. A growing number of economists now think that day may never arrive.

China’s population is over four times bigger than America’s. Its economy could therefore surpass America’s in scale long before it matches it in sophistication. Its GDP per person needs to reach only a quarter of America’s for its total GDP to become the biggest in the world. By one measure, China has already achieved that modest feat. Its GDP overtook America’s in 2016 when translated into dollars at “purchasing-power parity”, a method that tries to tally up the goods and services in each country using the same international prices.

But China’s GDP still lags far behind America’s when converted into dollars using the more familiar exchange rates that prevail in the currency markets. It reached $17.7trn in 2021 compared with America’s $23trn. And China’s growth has been hampered by its zero-covid policy (which responds to every outbreak of the virus with severe lockdowns) as well as a property slump, unreformed state-owned enterprises and a continuing tech war with America. The government’s aggressive regulation of previously booming sectors, such as tech and education, has also depressed the mood. China’s economy expanded by an impressive 8.1% in 2021, but it will be lucky to grow by even 3% this year.


In the longer term, China’s ageing population will mean further difficulties. The workforce could shrink by 15% over the next 15 years, according to some estimates. Capital Economics, a consultancy, thinks China’s GDP might draw close to America’s or even surpass it by the mid-2030s only to fall behind again as its demographic decline asserts itself.

One of the hardest and most neglected questions in this debate is what will happen to the exchange rate between the two countries and to prices within them. Goods and services in China are still substantially cheaper than in America on average. If China does continue to narrow the productivity gap with America, its prices should also converge, either through a stronger currency or faster inflation. These movements can make a big difference. Goldman Sachs, for example, predicts that China’s GDP will exceed $38trn in 2031, at the prices and exchange rates prevailing in that year. That would be more than double its present total and enough to make it the world’s biggest economy. But not all of that elevation will come from economic growth. Much of it will also come from higher prices and currency appreciation. According to the forecast, China’s GDP will be about 47% bigger in real terms in 2031 than it was ten years earlier (an average growth rate of less than 4% a year). Its prices will be roughly 30% higher, and its exchange rate will be almost 13% stronger. It is the combination of these three factors, rather than growth alone, that will determine whether China ever becomes the world’s undisputed economic heavyweight champion. ■



中国的经济会不会超过美国？
一些经济学家认为不会
中国毕节--2022年8月23日--2022年8月23日晚，在中国贵州省毕节市，大量的人在花钱。(Photo credit should read CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images)
2022年9月6日



几个世纪前，中国曾经是世界上最大的经济体。许多分析家预计它将在适当的时候重新获得这一殊荣。但是，困扰这个亚洲巨人的一系列困难，其中一些是自己造成的，将推迟它超越美国回到杆位的日子。现在越来越多的经济学家认为这一天可能永远不会到来。

中国的人口是美国的四倍多。因此，它的经济在规模上可能早就超过了美国的先进性。中国的人均GDP只需要达到美国的四分之一，其GDP总量就能成为世界第一。根据一项措施，中国已经实现了这一微小的成就。2016年，中国的GDP在按 "购买力平价 "换算成美元时超过了美国，这种方法试图用相同的国际价格来计算每个国家的商品和服务。

但是，如果使用货币市场上更熟悉的汇率换算成美元，中国的GDP仍然远远落后于美国。2021年，它达到了17.7万亿美元，而美国是23万亿美元。中国的增长一直受阻于它的零病毒政策（该政策对每一次病毒的爆发都采取严厉的封锁措施），以及房地产的不景气、未改革的国有企业和与美国的持续科技战争。政府对以前蓬勃发展的行业，如科技和教育，进行了积极的监管，也使人们的情绪低落。中国的经济在2021年增长了8.1%，令人印象深刻，但今年能增长3%就很幸运了。


从长期来看，中国的人口老龄化将意味着进一步的困难。根据一些估计，未来15年，劳动力可能会缩减15%。咨询公司Capital Economics认为，中国的GDP可能会接近美国，甚至在20世纪30年代中期超过美国，但随着人口结构的衰退，中国的GDP又会落后。

在这场辩论中，最困难和最被忽视的问题之一是两国之间的汇率和两国内部的价格会发生什么变化。中国的商品和服务仍然比美国的平均价格便宜很多。如果中国确实继续缩小与美国的生产力差距，其价格也应该趋同，要么是通过更强的货币，要么是更快的通货膨胀。这些变化可以产生很大的影响。例如，高盛公司预测，按照2031年的价格和汇率，中国的GDP将超过38万亿美元。这将是其目前总量的两倍多，足以使其成为世界最大的经济体。但这一提升并非全部来自经济增长。它的大部分也将来自更高的价格和货币升值。根据预测，中国的GDP在2031年将比十年前实际增长约47%（每年的平均增长率不到4%）。中国的物价将提高约30%，其汇率将增强近13%。正是这三个因素的结合，而不是单独的增长，将决定中国是否会成为世界上无可争议的重量级经济冠军。■