2021.11.08 未来一年值得关注的十大趋势

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The World Ahead 2022
Ten trends to watch in the coming year
A letter from Tom Standage, editor of “The World Ahead 2022”



Nov 8th 2021
BY TOM STANDAGE: EDITOR, THE WORLD AHEAD 2022


If 2021 was the year the world turned the tide against the pandemic, 2022 will be dominated by the need to adjust to new realities, both in areas reshaped by the crisis (the new world of work, the future of travel) and as deeper trends reassert themselves (the rise of China, accelerating climate change). Here are ten themes and trends to watch in the year ahead.

1 Democracy v autocracy. America’s mid-term elections and China’s Communist Party congress will vividly contrast their rival political systems. Which is better at delivering stability, growth and innovation? This rivalry will play out in everything from trade to tech regulation, vaccinations to space stations. As President Joe Biden tries to rally the free world under the flag of democracy, his dysfunctional, divided country is a poor advertisement for its merits.


2 Pandemic to endemic. New antiviral pills, improved antibody treatments and more vaccines are coming. For vaccinated folks in the developed world, the virus will no longer be life-threatening. But it will still pose a deadly danger in the developing world. Unless vaccinations can be stepped up, covid-19 will have become just another of the many endemic diseases that afflict the poor but not the rich.

3 Inflation worries. Supply-chain disruptions and a spike in energy demand have pushed up prices. Central bankers say it’s temporary, but not everyone believes them. Britain is at particular risk of stagflation, due to post-Brexit labour shortages and its dependence on expensive natural gas.

4 The future of work. There is a broad consensus that the future is “hybrid”, and that more people will spend more days working from home. But there is much scope for disagreement on the details. How many days, and which ones? And will it be fair? Surveys show that women are less keen to return to the office, so they may risk being passed over for promotions. Debates also loom over tax rules and monitoring of remote workers.

5 The new techlash. Regulators in America and Europe have been trying to rein in the tech giants for years, but have yet to make a dent in their growth or profits. Now China has taken the lead, lashing its tech firms in a brutal crackdown. President Xi Jinping wants them to focus on “deep tech” that provides geostrategic advantage, not frivolities like games and shopping. But will this boost Chinese innovation, or stifle the industry’s dynamism?

The coming year will be dominated by the need to adjust to new, post-pandemic realities

6 Crypto grows up. Like all disruptive technologies, cryptocurrencies are being domesticated as regulators tighten rules. Central banks are also looking to launch their own, centralised, digital currencies. The result is a three-way fight for the future of finance—between the crypto-blockchain-DeFi crowd, more traditional technology firms and central banks—that will intensify in 2022.

7 Climate crunch. Even as wildfires, heatwaves and floods increase in frequency, a striking lack of urgency prevails among policymakers when it comes to tackling climate change. Moreover, decarbonisation requires the West and China to co-operate, just as their geopolitical rivalry is deepening. Keep an eye on the solar-geoengineering research team at Harvard. In 2022, they want to test the use of a high-altitude balloon to release dust to dim sunlight—a technique that may, at this rate, be needed to buy the world more time to decarbonise.


8 Travel trouble. Activity is picking up as economies reopen. But countries that pursued a zero-covid “suppression” strategy, such as Australia and New Zealand, face the tricky task of managing the transition to a world in which the virus is endemic. Meanwhile, as much as half of business travel is gone for good. That is good for the planet, but bad for tourists whose trips are subsidised by high-spending business travellers.

9 Space races. 2022 will be the first year in which more people go to space as paying passengers than government employees, carried aloft by rival space-tourism firms. China will finish its new space station. Film-makers are vying to make movies in zero-g. And nasa will crash a space probe into an asteroid, in a real-life mission that sounds like a Hollywood film.

10 Political footballs. The Winter Olympics in Beijing and the football World Cup in Qatar will be reminders of how sport can bring the world together—but also of how big sporting events often end up being political footballs. Expect protests directed at both host countries, though boycotts by national teams seem unlikely.

The rapid development of mrna coronavirus vaccines, a bright spot in 2021, drew on decades of work to create what looked like an overnight success. Which other emerging technologies might be about to burst into prominence? Our special section considers 22 candidates for 2022. Finally, this publication has a new name: The World in is now The World Ahead, which better positions us for the future. We hope that reading it will do the same for you.

Tom Standage: Editor, The World Ahead 2022■





2022年的未来世界
未来一年值得关注的十大趋势
2022年世界展望》编辑汤姆-斯坦达奇的信



2021年11月8日
作者：汤姆-斯坦达奇。2022年未来世界》编辑


如果说2021年是世界扭转颓势对抗大流行病的一年，那么2022年将由适应新现实的需要所主导，无论是在被危机重塑的领域（新的工作世界，旅行的未来），还是在更深层次的趋势重新确立的领域（中国的崛起，气候变化的加速）。以下是未来一年需要关注的十个主题和趋势。

1 民主对专制。美国的中期选举和中国的共产党代表大会将生动地对比其敌对的政治制度。哪一个更善于提供稳定、增长和创新？这种竞争将在从贸易到技术监管、从疫苗到空间站的所有方面展开。当乔-拜登总统试图将自由世界团结在民主的旗帜下时，他的功能失调、分裂的国家对民主的优点来说是一个糟糕的广告。


2 大流行到地方病。新的抗病毒药丸、改进的抗体治疗和更多的疫苗正在到来。对于发达国家的接种者来说，这种病毒将不再威胁到生命。但是在发展中国家，它仍将构成致命的危险。除非能够加强疫苗接种，否则covid-19将成为折磨穷人而不是富人的许多地方病中的另一种。

3 通货膨胀的担忧。供应链的中断和能源需求的激增推高了价格。中央银行家们说这是暂时的，但不是所有人都相信他们。由于英国脱欧后的劳动力短缺和对昂贵的天然气的依赖，英国尤其面临着滞胀的风险。

4 工作的未来。人们普遍认为，未来是 "混合型"，更多的人将花更多的时间在家工作。但在细节上还有很多分歧的空间。多少天，哪些天？这是否公平？调查显示，女性不大愿意回到办公室，因此她们可能会有被排除在晋升之外的风险。关于税收规则和对远程工作者的监控的争论也迫在眉睫。

5 新的技术浪潮。美国和欧洲的监管机构多年来一直试图控制科技巨头，但尚未对其增长或利润产生影响。现在，中国已经带头，在一场残酷的镇压中鞭挞其科技公司。习近平主席希望他们专注于提供地缘战略优势的 "深层技术"，而不是游戏和购物这样的琐事。但这将促进中国的创新，还是扼杀该行业的活力？

未来一年将以适应新的、大流行后的现实的需要为主导。

6、加密货币的成长。像所有颠覆性技术一样，随着监管机构收紧规则，加密货币正在被驯化。中央银行也在寻求推出他们自己的、集中的数字货币。其结果是对金融未来的三方争夺--在加密区块链-DeFi人群、更传统的技术公司和中央银行之间，将在2022年加剧。

7 气候紧缩。即使野火、热浪和洪水越来越频繁，但在应对气候变化方面，政策制定者明显缺乏紧迫感。此外，去碳化需要西方和中国合作，而他们的地缘政治竞争却在加深。密切关注哈佛大学的太阳能地球工程研究小组。在2022年，他们想测试使用高空气球释放灰尘来减弱阳光--按照这种速度，可能需要这种技术来为世界争取更多的时间来实现脱碳。


8 旅行的麻烦。随着经济的重新开放，活动正在回升。但那些推行零病毒 "抑制 "战略的国家，如澳大利亚和新西兰，面临着管理过渡到一个病毒流行的世界的棘手任务。与此同时，多达一半的商务旅行已经永远消失。这对地球来说是好事，但对游客来说却是坏事，因为他们的旅行是由高消费的商务旅行者补贴的。

9 太空竞赛。2022年将是作为付费乘客进入太空的人数多于政府雇员的第一年，他们由竞争对手的太空旅游公司带入高空。中国将完成其新的空间站。电影制作人正争相在零重力环境下拍摄电影。美国国家航空航天局将把一个太空探测器撞向一颗小行星，这一真实的任务听起来像一部好莱坞电影。

10个政治用球。北京的冬奥会和卡塔尔的世界杯足球赛将提醒人们，体育是如何将世界联系在一起的，但也提醒人们，大型体育赛事往往最终会成为政治的筹码。预计会有针对这两个主办国的抗议，尽管国家队的抵制似乎不太可能。

冠状病毒疫苗的快速发展是2021年的一个亮点，它利用了几十年的工作，创造了看似一夜之间的成功。还有哪些新兴技术可能即将迸发出来？我们的特别章节考虑了2022年的22项候选技术。最后，这份出版物有了一个新的名字：《世界》现在是《未来的世界》，这使我们对未来有了更好的定位。我们希望，阅读它也能为您带来同样的效果。

汤姆-斯坦达奇：《2022年世界展望》编辑■。