2022.02.23 防止经济破坏和冲突升级

shiyi18

By Invitation | Russia and Ukraine
Dmitri Alperovitch on the risks of escalation
The West must tailor its sanctions to forestall economic devastation and a spiralling conflict

Feb 23rd 2022 (Updated Feb 25th 2022)


Editor’s note: Since this article was published, Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, ordered a “special military operation”, declaring war.

Four months after Russia began its build-up of troops on Ukraine’s border, the conflict between the two countries is entering its next—and most critical—phase. On February 21st Russia’s President Vladimir Putin delivered a fiery speech in which he recognised the independence of two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine, claiming that “modern Ukraine was entirely and fully created by Russia”. Mr Putin then ordered additional Russian troops into those regions in a move that a senior official in the White House condemned a day later as “the beginning of an invasion”.


The response from the West is under way. On February 22nd the British government announced sanctions against a handful of small Russian banks and three Russian oligarchs; Germany announced that it was suspending certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which, once operational, was to carry natural gas from Russia to western Europe. In Washington, the White House also unveiled a limited set of sanctions against the two separatist regions. Pressure is building in Congress for the introduction of a more extensive sanctions package.

But as the world awaits Russia’s next move, America and its allies need to look beyond a probable Russian invasion to the possible scenarios that follow from any war and the subsequent imposition of Western sanctions. At this important moment America must tailor its response carefully to avoid initiating a pattern of escalation that could result in a potentially devastating hot war with Russia.

The White House has already threatened extensive economic sanctions in response to further Russian actions. As Vice-President Kamala Harris confirmed at the Munich Security Conference in recent days, America and its allies are prepared to “impose significant and unprecedented economic costs” on Russian financial companies. In addition to these sanctions, the Washington Post reports that the Biden administration has threatened to use a novel export-control tool—known as the “foreign direct-product rule”—to ban global exports of semiconductors to Russia when made with American technology or software.

Make no mistake about this: the proposed combination of sanctions on top Russian banks and implementation of export controls on semiconductors would be likely to severely debilitate the Russian economy. And although many in the West may initially cheer this outcome as righteous punishment for Russia’s blatant violation of Ukrainian sovereignty, these measures will probably trigger significant Russian retaliation against America. That prospect all but guarantees that the conflict will not come to an end with an invasion of Ukraine.


Faced with a potentially existential threat to its economic well-being, and seeing itself as having nothing more to lose, Russia will have several tools at its disposal with which to respond. In the economic sphere, Russia can limit the export of strategic resources to the West, including grain, fertiliser, titanium, palladium, aluminium, nickel and timber—to say nothing of possibly calamitous limits on oil and gas exports. Consider that Russia is the world’s biggest exporter of fertiliser, without which food prices around the world would rocket. Over 70% of neon gas—used in the sophisticated laser-etching technology needed for manufacturing most semiconductors—comes from Ukraine. Russia could easily stop its supply in the event of war. Mr Putin could also take additional measures simply to make life difficult for Westerners, including banning overflight rights for Western airlines on routes to Asia.

The purpose of these measures would be to inflict swift and significant economic pain on America and Europe by exacerbating already spiking inflation—now about 7.5% in America—while simultaneously placing even more stress on Western supply chains. Already these have been pushed to breaking point by the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.

Of course all of these measures will be enormously expensive for Russia itself. But in the face of severe economic sanctions—and while still having access to $630bn in foreign reserves that can buoy the Russian economy for a few months at least—Mr Putin will probably try his luck and hit back.

It is not impossible that this gamble will pay off. In America these measures would be likely to inflict economic hardship on already weary American consumers. They would disproportionately affect working- and middle-class Americans who have suffered the most from the economic fallout caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Coming in a rancorous mid-term campaign season, this deepening economic pain would not be easy for politicians to brush off. In fact, Russia may be counting on such political pressure to compel Congress into easing sanctions.

Even that may not be the end of the story. If America and its allies stay the course on economic sanctions, Russia could further escalate the conflict in other ways. Carrying out cyber-attacks against American and European financial institutions and energy infrastructure is one. Having already exhausted the power of economic sanctions, America and its European allies would have few choices other than to respond to these attacks with offensive cyber-strikes of their own. This pattern of tit-for-tat cyber retaliation could place Russia and the West on a worrying path. It could end with the conflict spilling out of cyberspace and into the realm of a hot conflict. This outcome—a hot conflict between two nuclear powers with extensive cyber capabilities—is one that everyone in the world should be anxious to avoid.

The purpose of carefully examining these potential post-invasion scenarios is not to argue that America and its allies should impose no costs on Russia for an invasion. Rather it is to drive home the point that these countries, in implementing an appropriate sanctions package, will need to be extremely mindful to avoid triggering a situation of uncontrolled escalation with a major nuclear power—and one that also happens to be a global supplier of critical materials. There is no doubt that Russia should pay a significant price for invading Ukraine, but immediately slapping Russia with the full range of economic penalties risks leading to a spiralling situation that could precipitate significant economic blowback in America and Europe.

At the moment when the Biden administration has rightly made it clear that its top priority is avoiding a hot war with Russia, Western allies must be careful to craft a response that forestalls that unimaginably horrible outcome. ■

Dmitri Alperovitch is a technology executive and the chairman of Silverado Policy Accelerator, a geopolitical think-tank.




应邀参加｜俄罗斯和乌克兰
德米特里-阿尔佩罗维奇谈升级的风险
西方必须调整其制裁措施以防止经济破坏和冲突升级

2022年2月23日 (2022年2月25日更新)



编者按：自本文发表以来，俄罗斯总统普京下令采取 "特别军事行动"，宣布战争。

在俄罗斯开始在乌克兰边境集结军队的四个月后，两国之间的冲突正在进入下一个阶段，也是最关键的阶段。2月21日，俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔-普京发表了热情洋溢的讲话，他承认乌克兰东部两个分离主义地区的独立，声称 "现代乌克兰完全由俄罗斯创造"。普京先生随后命令更多的俄罗斯军队进入这些地区，此举被白宫的一名高级官员在一天后谴责为 "入侵的开始"。


西方的反应正在进行中。2月22日，英国政府宣布对少数俄罗斯小型银行和三名俄罗斯寡头进行制裁；德国宣布暂停对北溪2号天然气管道的认证，该管道一旦投入使用，将把天然气从俄罗斯输送到西欧。在华盛顿，白宫还公布了一套针对这两个分离主义地区的有限制裁措施。美国国会正在形成压力，要求出台更广泛的制裁方案。

但是，在世界等待俄罗斯的下一步行动时，美国及其盟友需要把目光从俄罗斯可能的入侵转向任何战争和随后实施的西方制裁所带来的可能情况。在这一重要时刻，美国必须谨慎地调整其反应，以避免启动一种可能导致与俄罗斯发生潜在破坏性热战的升级模式。

白宫已经威胁要对俄罗斯的进一步行动进行广泛的经济制裁。正如副总统卡马拉-哈里斯最近几天在慕尼黑安全会议上确认的那样，美国及其盟国准备对俄罗斯金融公司 "施加重大和前所未有的经济代价"。除了这些制裁，《华盛顿邮报》报道说，拜登政府威胁要使用一种称为 "外国直接产品规则 "的新型出口管制工具，禁止向俄罗斯出口使用美国技术或软件的全球半导体。

不要搞错了：拟议的对俄罗斯顶级银行的制裁和对半导体出口管制的实施相结合，将可能严重削弱俄罗斯经济。尽管许多西方国家最初可能会欢呼这一结果，认为是对俄罗斯公然侵犯乌克兰主权的正义惩罚，但这些措施可能会引发俄罗斯对美国的重大报复。这种前景几乎可以保证冲突不会以入侵乌克兰而结束。


面对对其经济福祉的潜在生存威胁，并且认为自己已经没有什么可失去的了，俄罗斯将有几个工具可以用来应对。在经济领域，俄罗斯可以限制向西方出口战略资源，包括粮食、化肥、钛、钯、铝、镍和木材--更不用说对石油和天然气出口可能的灾难性限制了。考虑到俄罗斯是世界上最大的化肥出口国，如果没有化肥，全世界的粮食价格将直线上升。超过70%的氖气--用于制造大多数半导体所需的精密激光蚀刻技术--来自乌克兰。如果发生战争，俄罗斯可以很容易地停止其供应。普京先生还可以采取更多措施，只是为了让西方人的生活变得困难，包括禁止西方航空公司飞往亚洲的航线。

这些措施的目的是通过加剧已经飙升的通货膨胀--现在美国的通货膨胀率约为7.5%--对美国和欧洲造成迅速和重大的经济损失，同时对西方的供应链造成更大的压力。由于冠状病毒大流行的影响，这些供应链已经被推到了崩溃的边缘。

当然，所有这些措施对俄罗斯本身来说将是非常昂贵的。但是，面对严厉的经济制裁--而且还可以获得6300亿美元的外汇储备，至少可以在几个月内提振俄罗斯经济--普京先生可能会碰运气，进行反击。

这场赌博并非不可能得到回报。在美国，这些措施可能会给已经疲惫不堪的美国消费者带来经济困难。它们将不成比例地影响美国工人和中产阶级，他们在冠状病毒大流行造成的经济后果中受害最深。在激烈的中期竞选季节，这种不断加深的经济痛苦对政治家来说并不容易抹去。事实上，俄罗斯可能指望这种政治压力来迫使国会放松制裁。

即使这可能不是故事的结局。如果美国及其盟友继续坚持经济制裁，俄罗斯可能会以其他方式进一步升级冲突。对美国和欧洲的金融机构和能源基础设施进行网络攻击就是其中之一。由于已经用尽了经济制裁的力量，美国及其欧洲盟友除了用自己的进攻性网络攻击来回应这些攻击外，几乎没有其他选择。这种针锋相对的网络报复模式会使俄罗斯和西方国家走上一条令人担忧的道路。它可能以冲突溢出网络空间并进入热点冲突的领域而告终。这种结果--两个拥有广泛网络能力的核大国之间的激烈冲突--是世界上每个人都应该急于避免的。

仔细研究这些潜在的入侵后情景的目的不是为了争论美国及其盟友不应该为入侵俄罗斯施加任何代价。相反，它是为了说明，这些国家在实施适当的制裁方案时，需要非常谨慎，以避免引发与一个主要核大国--同时也是一个全球关键材料供应商--的无节制升级局面。毫无疑问，俄罗斯应该为入侵乌克兰付出巨大的代价，但立即对俄罗斯进行全面的经济处罚有可能导致局势不断升级，从而在美国和欧洲引发重大的经济反击。

在拜登政府正确地表明其首要任务是避免与俄罗斯发生热战的时刻，西方盟国必须小心翼翼地制定对策，以防止出现那种难以想象的可怕结果。■

Dmitri Alperovitch是一名技术主管，也是地缘政治智囊团Silverado Policy Accelerator的主席。