2022.03.08 乌克兰人道主义疏散

shiyi18

The world in brief
Catch up quickly on the global stories that matter

Updated less than 1 hour ago (11:29 GMT / 06:29 New York)

Some residents of the north-eastern Ukrainian city of Sumy, just 50km from the Russian border, boarded buses travelling south along a “humanitarian corridor” before the evacuation was reported to have been suspended. Russian forces have committed to protecting five such routes out of Ukrainian cities they are shelling. At least 21 civilians have been killed in Sumy, according to Ukrainian officials. The UN says over 2m people have now fled the country.

The European Union was reported to be considering a “massive” joint bond sale to finance energy and defence spending prompted by Russia’s invasion. It plans to reduce its reliance on Russian gas by two-thirds this year. Earlier, Russia warned that it would stop its natural gas supply to Europe in response to the West’s sanctions. America said it was in “very active discussion” with European allies over a ban on imports of Russian oil. But Germany rejected the idea of an embargo.

The World Bank approved $723m in grants and loans to Ukraine, intended to keep the government and its services functioning throughout the conflict by, for example, paying pensions, hospital workers’ wages and providing aid. The package includes loans and grants from Britain, Denmark, Iceland, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands and Sweden. The bank says it is working on a further $3bn package and support for neighbouring countries taking in Ukrainian refugees. Meanwhile Australia and Japan announced new sanctions on Russian and, in Japan’s case, Belarusian officials.

The London Metal Exchange suspended nickel trading after a 250% increase in the metal’s price this week, driven by fears of disrupted supply out of Russia. On Monday, it introduced new rules in an attempt to calm the trading of other volatile metals. Russia is a large producer of nickel, which is used to make stainless steel and car batteries. It is also a key producer of wheat and aluminium.

Listen to today’s briefing
Be the first to hear the global stories that matter each day.

Subscribe to the podcast
Fitch, a ratings agency, suspended operations in Russia, joining a growing list of Western businesses leaving the country. JPMorgan, an American bank, excluded Russia from all of its fixed income indices, which are used widely as benchmarks. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley, another American bank, said Russia was set for a “Venezuela-style default” as early as April 15th when the grace period on coupon payments from Russian dollar bonds expires.

Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, said he was “not hiding” in a late night video showing himself in his office in Kyiv, the capital. Mr Zelensky promised that the country would rebuild everything destroyed by Russian forces. Earlier on Monday, Mr Zelensky warned that the war would spread beyond Ukraine. He once again stressed the need to secure the country’s airspace.

Other news

The Biden administration proposed tightening limits on pollution from buses and commercial lorries. The draft rule would require cuts in nitrogen-oxide emissions starting in model year 2027, and would reduce such emissions by up to 60% by 2045 • Record rainfall prompted flood warnings in Sydney, Australia’s biggest city; about 80,000 people have been asked to evacuate. Floods in the region have killed 20 people since February 27th.


Oil markets rattled by war

PHOTO: DPA
When America’s secretary of state said his country was discussing “the prospect of banning the import of Russian oil” with European and other allies, prices spiked. On March 6th, after Antony Blinken spoke, the price of Brent crude touched $139 before settling at about $120. Analysts think war could force the price to $200; Russia says a ban would send it to $300.

Oil supply was constrained even before Russia invaded Ukraine. Demand slumped during the pandemic before rebounding sharply in 2021. But under-investment and disruptions caused by covid-19 are still crimping global output. Russia is the world’s second-biggest petroleum exporter. It typically exports 4.5m barrels of crude and 2.5m of oil-products each day.

An oil embargo is the most powerful economic weapon America has yet to wield. And many companies are already avoiding Russia’s oil, although Germany has rejected the idea of an embargo. But even graduated sanctions, like those imposed on Iran, could cause a market panic. A total ban would hit the global economy hard.


Planning for the next pandemic

PHOTO: EYEVINE
How would the world respond to the next “Disease X”, a pathogen currently unknown to science? On Tuesday the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, a charity, and the British government are hosting a summit in London to figure this out. In light of the social and economic devastation caused by SARS-CoV-2, the Global Pandemic Preparedness Summit wants the world to be able to respond more rapidly.

Governments, international agencies, scientists, NGOs and pharmaceutical firms want to discuss a “100-day plan” to develop safe and effective vaccines, medicines and diagnostics quickly enough to prevent future pandemics from occurring. CEPI needs $3.5bn to implement these ideas. The meeting’s organisers hope to draw attention to the prospect of a new deadly disease. Even as the covid-19 pandemic recedes, and the world focuses on Ukraine, that is a critical task.

Get the briefing in your inbox
Delivered before breakfast six times per week.

Sign up
The Economist’s glass-ceiling index

PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES
Four Nordic countries—Sweden, Iceland, Finland and Norway—once again top our glass-ceiling index as the best places for working women. The index measures the role and influence of women in the workforce across the OECD club of mostly rich countries. Japan and South Korea, where women must often still choose between a family or a career, fill the bottom two places. America sits in 20th out of 29 countries.

A country’s performance on the index is measured along ten metrics, including the gender pay gap, parental leave, the cost of child care, educational attainment and representation in senior management and political jobs. We give more weight to the indicators which affect all women (such as labour-force participation) and less to those which affect only some (such as maternity pay). Paternity pay is also included. Studies show that where fathers take parental leave, mothers tend to return to the labour market, female employment is higher and the earnings gap between men and women is smaller. You can explore the index here.


By Invitation: Malala Yousafzai on International Women’s Day

PHOTO: AGNÈS RICART
This is an excerpt from a guest essay by the Nobel peace-prize laureate. You can read the full article here and visit our related hub here.

Young women want equal access to education. We want leaders to invest in our future. We also want our perspectives to inform the plans and policies that affect us. In honour of International Women’s Day, I’m excited to collaborate with The Economist to expand my work to amplify young women’s voices as By Invitation’s first guest editor.

I have invited four young women to each contribute a guest essay to By Invitation on issues that are deeply connected to girls’ education: conflict, climate, digital inclusion and discrimination. Freshta Karim, an Afghan women’s rights activist, writes about her experience fleeing her home and about the future for Afghanistan’s women and girls. Kiara Nirghin, an inventor from South Africa, considers how the pandemic has widened gender gaps in science and the value of getting more girls involved in technical subjects. TK Saccoh, an anti-colourism advocate from Sierra Leone, reflects on the ways in which racism and gender discrimination affect girls’ learning and how teachers can help. Vanessa Nakate, a climate activist from Uganda, calls for an inclusive approach to discussing, teaching and legislating on global environmental issues.


The names on France’s presidential ballot

PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES
The official list of candidates running for the French presidency will be published on Tuesday. The country will vote in a two-round presidential election on April 10th and 24th. Laurent Fabius, president of the constitutional council, yesterday validated 12 candidates, all of whom received the required 500 signatures from elected officials. Among them is the sitting president, Emmanuel Macron, who confirmed last week that he is running for re-election.

There are five candidates to his right. They include the centre-right Valérie Pécresse, as well as the nationalist-populist Marine Le Pen and the hard-right Eric Zemmour. Six sit to his left, including the Socialists’ Anne Hidalgo, the Greens’ Yannick Jadot and the hard-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The Economist’s forecasting model now gives Mr Macron a 99% chance of reaching the second round. The campaign is turning into a race to meet him in a final run-off, which our model suggests he remains the strong favourite to win.

A film envisions Ukraine after war with Russia

PHOTO: BEST FRIEND FOREVER
With breathtaking cinematography, “Atlantis” imagines a Ukraine that has emerged, victorious, from war with Russia in 2025. After its premiere at the Venice Film Festival in 2019, the Ukrainian film was praised. Variety called it “poetically pure”. But despite a string of awards, Valentyn Vasyanovych’s picture failed to take off. With real war now raging, that is changing. “Atlantis” is being added to more streaming services, including iTunes, MUBI and Amazon Prime. Cinema releases are in the works, including one in Italy next month.

Mr Vasyanovych’s subsequent film, “Reflection”, looks at secret prisons in Russian-controlled eastern Ukraine. A Ukrainian journalist who was tortured in one such prison was a consultant for that film. In “Atlantis” Mr Vasyanovych depicts his homeland amid the aftershocks of war. Now, since he is somewhere near Kyiv, scenes of a current one are playing out in front of him.

Daily quiz

Our baristas will serve you a new question each day. On Friday your challenge is to give all five answers and tell us the connecting theme. Email your responses (and include mention of your home city and country) by 1700 GMT on Friday to QuizEspresso@economist.com. We’ll pick randomly from those with the right answers and crown one winner per continent on Saturday.

Tuesday: What was the popular name of the Chinese rebellion against Western occupation between 1899 and 1901?

Yesterday’s question: Which opera, written by Richard Thomas and Stewart Lee, centres on an American talk show host?

In the development of intelligence nothing can be more ‘basic’ than learning how to ask productive questions.

Neil Postman



世界简讯
迅速了解重要的全球事件

不到1小时前更新 (11:29 GMT / 06:29 New York)

离俄罗斯边境仅50公里的乌克兰东北部城市苏梅的一些居民登上了沿 "人道主义走廊 "向南行驶的巴士，据报道，疏散行动已经暂停。俄罗斯军队已经承诺保护五条离开乌克兰城市的此类路线，他们正在炮击这些城市。据乌克兰官员称，至少有21名平民在苏米被杀。联合国称，目前已有200多万人逃离该国。

据报道，欧盟正在考虑进行 "大规模 "的联合债券销售，以资助俄罗斯入侵所引发的能源和国防开支。它计划今年将对俄罗斯天然气的依赖程度降低三分之二。早些时候，俄罗斯警告说，它将停止对欧洲的天然气供应，以回应西方的制裁。美国说，它正在与欧洲盟国就禁止进口俄罗斯石油进行 "非常积极的讨论"。但德国拒绝了禁运的想法。

世界银行批准向乌克兰提供7.23亿美元的赠款和贷款，旨在通过支付养老金、医院工作人员的工资和提供援助等方式，使政府及其服务在整个冲突期间保持运作。该计划包括英国、丹麦、冰岛、日本、拉脱维亚、立陶宛、荷兰和瑞典的贷款和赠款。该银行表示，它正在研究另外一个30亿美元的一揽子计划，以及对接收乌克兰难民的邻国的支持。同时，澳大利亚和日本宣布了对俄罗斯的新制裁，日本则是对白俄罗斯官员的制裁。

在本周金属价格上涨250%之后，伦敦金属交易所暂停了镍的交易，因为人们担心俄罗斯的供应会中断。周一，它引入了新的规则，试图平息其他波动性金属的交易。俄罗斯是镍的生产大国，镍被用于制造不锈钢和汽车电池。它也是小麦和铝的主要生产商。

收听今天的简报
第一时间听到每天重要的全球故事。

订阅播客
评级机构惠誉暂停了在俄罗斯的业务，加入了越来越多的西方企业离开该国的名单。美国银行摩根大通将俄罗斯从其所有固定收益指数中排除，这些指数被广泛用作基准。同时，另一家美国银行摩根士丹利表示，俄罗斯最早将在4月15日俄罗斯美元债券的票面付款宽限期到期时发生 "委内瑞拉式违约"。

乌克兰总统沃洛基米尔-泽伦斯基(Volodymyr Zelensky)在一个深夜的视频中说，他 "没有躲避"，他在首都基辅的办公室里。泽伦斯基先生承诺，该国将重建被俄罗斯军队摧毁的一切。周一早些时候，泽伦斯基先生警告说，战争将蔓延到乌克兰之外。他再次强调需要确保该国的领空。

其他新闻

拜登政府提议收紧对公共汽车和商业货车的污染限制。该规则草案将要求从2027年的车型开始削减氮氧化物的排放，并在2045年之前将此类排放减少多达60%--澳大利亚最大城市悉尼的创纪录降雨引发了洪水警报；约8万人被要求撤离。自2月27日以来，该地区的洪水已造成20人死亡。


石油市场因战争而震荡

照片。DPA
当美国国务卿说他的国家正在与欧洲和其他盟国讨论 "禁止进口俄罗斯石油的前景 "时，价格飙升。3月6日，在安东尼-布林肯讲话之后，布伦特原油的价格触及139美元，然后在120美元左右稳定下来。分析师认为，战争可能迫使价格达到200美元；俄罗斯说，禁令将使价格达到300美元。

甚至在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之前，石油供应就受到了限制。在大流行期间，需求下滑，然后在2021年大幅回升。但投资不足和covid-19造成的中断仍在压制全球产出。俄罗斯是世界第二大石油出口国。它通常每天出口450万桶原油和250万件石油产品。

石油禁运是美国尚未挥舞的最强大的经济武器。许多公司已经在回避俄罗斯的石油，尽管德国已经拒绝了禁运的想法。但即使是渐进式制裁，如对伊朗实施的制裁，也会引起市场恐慌。全面禁运将严重打击全球经济。


为下一个大流行病做计划

照片。EYEVINE
世界将如何应对下一个 "X疾病"，即目前科学界未知的病原体？本周二，慈善机构流行病防备创新联盟和英国政府将在伦敦举办一次峰会，以弄清这个问题。鉴于SARS-CoV-2造成的社会和经济破坏，全球大流行病防备峰会希望世界能够更迅速地做出反应。

各国政府、国际机构、科学家、非政府组织和制药公司希望讨论一个 "百日计划"，以迅速开发安全有效的疫苗、药品和诊断方法，以防止未来大流行病的发生。CEPI需要35亿美元来实施这些想法。会议的组织者希望能引起人们对一种新的致命疾病前景的关注。即使在covid-19大流行病退去，世界关注乌克兰的时候，这也是一项关键的任务。

在您的收件箱中获取简报
每周六次在早餐前送达。

报名
经济学人》的玻璃天花板指数

照片。GETTY IMAGES
四个北欧国家--瑞典、冰岛、芬兰和挪威--再次在我们的玻璃天花板指数中名列前茅，成为最适合职业女性的地方。该指数衡量了妇女在整个经合组织俱乐部（主要是富裕国家）劳动力中的作用和影响。日本和韩国的妇女仍然必须在家庭或事业之间做出选择，因此排名倒数第二。美国在29个国家中排在第20位。

一个国家在该指数中的表现是按照10个指标来衡量的，包括男女工资差距、育儿假、儿童保育费用、教育程度以及在高级管理和政治工作中的代表权。我们对影响所有妇女的指标（如劳动力参与）给予更多权重，而对只影响部分妇女的指标（如产假薪酬）给予较少权重。陪产假工资也被包括在内。研究表明，在父亲休育儿假的地方，母亲往往会回到劳动力市场，女性就业率更高，男女之间的收入差距也更小。你可以在这里探索该指数。


应邀参加。国际妇女节上的马拉拉-尤萨夫扎伊

照片。AGNÈS RICART
这是诺贝尔和平奖获得者的一篇特邀文章的节选。你可以在这里阅读全文，并在这里访问我们的相关中心。

年轻女性希望获得平等的教育机会。我们希望领导人能够投资于我们的未来。我们还希望我们的观点能够为影响我们的计划和政策提供参考。为纪念国际妇女节，我很高兴能与《经济学人》合作，扩大我的工作范围，作为《邀请》杂志的第一位客座编辑，放大年轻女性的声音。

我邀请了四位年轻女性分别为《邀请》杂志提供一篇特约文章，内容涉及与女孩教育密切相关的问题：冲突、气候、数字包容和歧视。阿富汗妇女权利活动家弗雷斯塔-卡里姆(Freshta Karim)写了她逃离家园的经历以及阿富汗妇女和女孩的未来。来自南非的发明家Kiara Nirghin认为，这种大流行病如何扩大了科学领域的性别差距，以及让更多女孩参与技术学科的价值。来自塞拉利昂的反色彩主义倡导者TK Saccoh反思了种族主义和性别歧视影响女孩学习的方式，以及教师可以如何帮助她们。来自乌干达的气候活动家Vanessa Nakate呼吁采取包容性的方法来讨论、教授和立法处理全球环境问题。


法国总统选票上的名字

照片。GETTY IMAGES
竞选法国总统的正式候选人名单将于星期二公布。该国将于4月10日和24日进行两轮总统选举投票。宪法委员会主席洛朗-法比尤斯（Laurent Fabius）昨天确认了12名候选人，他们都获得了所需的500名民选官员的签名。其中包括现任总统埃马纽埃尔-马克龙，他上周确认他将竞选连任。

在他的右边有五位候选人。他们包括中右翼的瓦莱里-佩克雷斯，以及民族主义-民粹主义的玛丽娜-勒庞和强硬派的埃里克-泽穆尔。他的左边有六个人，包括社会党的安妮-伊达尔戈（Anne Hidalgo）、绿党的雅尼克-雅多（Yannick Jadot）和硬左派的让-吕克-梅朗雄（Jean-Luc Mélenchon）。经济学人》的预测模型现在认为马克龙先生有99%的机会进入第二轮选举。竞选活动正在变成一场在最后决战中与他相遇的比赛，我们的模型显示他仍然是获胜的最大热门。

一部电影设想了与俄罗斯战争后的乌克兰

照片。永远的好朋友
亚特兰蒂斯》以令人叹为观止的摄影技术，想象了2025年与俄罗斯战争后的乌克兰，并取得了胜利。在2019年的威尼斯电影节上首映后，这部乌克兰电影受到了赞扬。综艺》杂志称其为 "诗意的纯粹"。但是，尽管获得了一连串的奖项，瓦伦丁-瓦西亚诺维奇的电影却未能起飞。随着现在真实战争的肆虐，这种情况正在改变。"亚特兰蒂斯》正在被添加到更多的流媒体服务中，包括iTunes、MUBI和Amazon Prime。电影院的发行正在进行中，包括下个月在意大利的发行。

瓦西亚诺维奇先生的后续影片《反思》着眼于俄罗斯控制的乌克兰东部地区的秘密监狱。一位曾在这样的监狱中遭受酷刑的乌克兰记者是这部电影的顾问。在《亚特兰蒂斯》中，瓦西亚诺维奇先生描绘了他在战争余波中的故乡。现在，由于他在基辅附近的某个地方，当前的战争场景正在他面前上演。

每日问答

我们的咖啡师每天都会为您提供一个新问题。在周五，你的挑战是给出所有五个答案，并告诉我们连接的主题。在周五格林尼治标准时间17点之前，将你的回答（包括提到你的家乡和国家）发到 QuizEspresso@economist.com。我们将从那些有正确答案的人中随机挑选，并在周六为每个大洲的一位获胜者颁奖。

星期二。1899年至1901年间，中国反对西方占领的叛乱的流行名称是什么？

昨天的问题。哪部由理查德-托马斯和斯图尔特-李创作的歌剧以一位美国谈话节目主持人为中心？

在智力的发展中，没有什么比学习如何提出有价值的问题更 "基本 "的了。

尼尔-波兹曼