2022.03.19 如何应对克里姆林宫中的 "强盗"

shiyi18

By Invitation | Russia and Ukraine
Mikhail Khodorkovsky on how to deal with the “bandit” in the Kremlin
A former oil mogul and political prisoner warns the West it must face down Vladimir Putin now or prepare for something worse

Mar 19th 2022


Ihave been fighting a personal war with Vladimir Putin for nearly 20 years. It led to my being jailed in Russia for ten years and then expelled, with a warning that life imprisonment awaited me if I ever returned. Do I know the man who did all this to me? I think I do. That is why I look with despair at the defeatist approach of Western leaders, such as Joe Biden, Emmanuel Macron and Naftali Bennett.

It is difficult for me to judge how their actions are seen by their electorates. However, I know well how they are perceived by Mr Putin, sitting at the end of his long table. They fly to Moscow, call him, ask him to stop, but assure him that they will not interfere and do not want him to perceive certain movements as a provocation. The president sees all of this as weakness, and that is extremely dangerous.


Part of the problem is that the current leaders of Western countries have never dealt with thugs. Their experience and education relate to interactions between statesmen. The principle of these people’s behaviour is that both sides concede to each other in the interests of their electorate or subjects. War is evil to them, and the use of force is a last resort.

This is not the case with Vladimir Putin. He was raised in the KGB, an organisation that relied on force and disregard for the law. While working at St Petersburg City Hall in the early 1990s, he was responsible for the informal interaction of the law-enforcement agencies with gangsters. St Petersburg at that time was perceived in Russia just as Chicago was seen during prohibition. Instead of smuggled whisky, the gangsters were selling drugs and oil.

Times changed but his ways of solving issues remained. Some of the conversations between his confidants and known criminals, made public after an investigation by Spanish prosecutors, help us to understand how the murder of Alexander Litvinenko and the poisoning of Alexey Navalny and the Skripals came at the nod of the ringleader. Such acts are the norm within the president’s circles, because he is a thug by nature.

Even after more than 20 years in power, having acquired a strongman image and self-confidence, a bandit will always remain a bandit in terms of his perception among those around him. It is a drastic mistake when he is seen as a normal statesman. Russia’s foreign partners fail to understand who he really is.

I have plenty of experience of dealing with bandits. After spending ten years in Russian prisons, I can say that the most dangerous thing is to show them any weakness or uncertainty. Any step towards their demands, without a clear demonstration of strength, will be perceived as weakness. Following their logic, if Western countries say they will not give up Ukraine and yet they do exactly that, it means that they are weak. And that makes it likely that Mr Putin will look towards other neighbours, such as Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, who were also previously part of the Russian Empire.


You have to understand that Mr Putin, in his head, has long been at war not with Ukraine, but with America. And now America and NATO look to be retreating. He is not the only thug who perceives the situation that way. Other bandits are also watching and waiting their turn, as America’s humiliation echoes around the world. Transnistria is stirring, the Balkans are restless again, Iran is attacking American bases. At some point, America and NATO will retaliate, but by that point, they will be tormented by crows and vultures in various parts of the world, and Mr Putin will not immediately realise that the pushback is serious. The habit of impunity among thugs does not subside so quickly. And that means a worse war, an even bigger one, is likely.

Perhaps you do not believe it. But consider this: Mr Putin managed to increase his ratings when he came to office, in 1999, with the war in Chechnya. He solved the problem of controlling his “interim president”, Dmitry Medvedev, by going to war with Georgia in 2008. Having gone to war on Mr Putin’s orders, Mr Medvedev was forced to abandon his own agenda of modernisation. Mr Putin solved the problem of his ratings plunge in 2013-14 by seizing Crimea.

Now, the war in Ukraine dwarfs any gripes about a decade of economic decline. If he is allowed to take over Ukraine, the economy will continue to collapse, as a result of corruption and sanctions. A flood of coffins will return home to Russia, for the guerrilla war cannot be stopped. The mood of the population will continue to deteriorate. And in 2024, there will be elections.

What is likely to be Mr Putin’s solution? It will be another “special operation”. Moldova is too small, so it is likely to be in the Baltic states or Poland. Unless Mr Putin is stopped in the air over Ukraine, NATO will have to fight him on the ground.

As for nuclear weapons, the Russian president has a manic psychosis. He is obsessed with being a historical figure like Stalin. He has placed a huge statue of Prince Vladimir, the creator of Russia, at his Kremlin gate. But he is not suicidal or he would not be sitting at the other end of a 20-foot table from his cronies. He will only use nuclear weapons if he believes there will be no response. But every day NATO rejects the no-fly zone over Ukraine, his self-confidence grows.

I do not want my country to face NATO in a global conflict, but trying to talk to a thug without showing him your strength leads exactly to that point. ■

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky is an exiled Russian businessman.




应邀参加｜俄罗斯和乌克兰
米哈伊尔-霍多尔科夫斯基谈如何应对克里姆林宫中的 "强盗"
一位前石油大亨和政治犯警告西方国家，现在必须面对弗拉基米尔-普京，否则将面临更糟糕的情况。

2022年3月19日



近20年来，我一直在与弗拉基米尔-普京进行一场个人战争。这导致我在俄罗斯入狱十年，然后被驱逐出境，并被警告说如果我再回来，等待我的将是终身监禁。我认识那个对我做这一切的人吗？我想我是认识的。这就是为什么我对西方领导人，如乔-拜登、埃马纽埃尔-马克龙和纳夫塔利-贝内特的失败主义做法感到绝望。

我很难判断他们的行动在其选民眼中是怎样的。然而，我很清楚，坐在普京先生长桌末端的他是如何看待他们的。他们飞往莫斯科，给他打电话，要求他停止，但向他保证，他们不会干涉，不希望他把某些运动视为挑衅。总统将这一切视为软弱，而这是极其危险的。


问题的一部分在于，西方国家的现任领导人从未与暴徒打过交道。他们的经验和教育与政治家之间的互动有关。这些人的行为原则是，为了选民或臣民的利益，双方都要向对方让步。战争对他们来说是邪恶的，使用武力是最后的手段。

弗拉基米尔-普京的情况则不同。他在克格勃长大，这是一个依靠武力和无视法律的组织。20世纪90年代初在圣彼得堡市政厅工作时，他负责执法机构与黑帮的非正式互动。当时俄罗斯人对圣彼得堡的看法就像禁酒令期间对芝加哥的看法一样。黑帮分子卖的不是走私的威士忌，而是毒品和石油。

时代变了，但他解决问题的方式依然存在。在西班牙检察官调查后公开的他的亲信与知名罪犯之间的一些对话，有助于我们理解亚历山大-利特维年科的谋杀以及阿列克谢-纳瓦尔尼和斯克里帕尔夫妇的中毒是如何在头目的点头下发生的。这种行为在总统的圈子里是常态，因为他天生就是个暴徒。

即使在执政20多年后，获得了强人的形象和自信，就他周围人对他的看法而言，强盗永远是强盗。当他被看作是一个正常的政治家时，这就是一个巨大的错误。俄罗斯的外国伙伴未能理解他的真实身份。

我有很多与土匪打交道的经验。在俄罗斯监狱呆了十年之后，我可以说，最危险的事情是向他们展示任何弱点或不确定性。在没有明确展示实力的情况下，向他们的要求迈出的任何一步，都会被视为软弱。按照他们的逻辑，如果西方国家说他们不会放弃乌克兰，但他们却恰恰这样做了，这意味着他们是软弱的。这使得普京先生有可能将目光投向其他邻国，如爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚、立陶宛和波兰，它们以前也是俄罗斯帝国的一部分。


你必须明白，普京先生在他的头脑中，长期以来不是与乌克兰，而是与美国交战。而现在，美国和北约看起来正在退缩。他不是唯一以这种方式看待局势的暴徒。在美国的羞辱在全世界回荡的时候，其他的强盗也在观察和等待他们的机会。外涅斯特里亚正在蠢蠢欲动，巴尔干半岛又开始躁动，伊朗正在攻击美国基地。在某些时候，美国和北约会进行报复，但到那时，他们会被世界各地的乌鸦和秃鹰折磨，而普京先生不会立即意识到这种反击的严重性。暴徒们有罪不罚的习惯不会这么快消退。而这意味着一场更糟糕的战争，一场更大的战争，是可能的。

也许你不相信。但考虑到这一点。普京先生在1999年上任时，通过车臣战争成功地提高了他的评级。2008年，他通过与格鲁吉亚开战，解决了控制其 "临时总统 "德米特里-梅德韦杰夫的问题。在普京的命令下开战后，梅德韦杰夫被迫放弃自己的现代化议程。普京先生通过夺取克里米亚，解决了他在2013-14年收视率暴跌的问题。

现在，乌克兰的战争使人们对十年来经济衰退的不满相形见绌。如果他被允许接管乌克兰，由于腐败和制裁，经济将继续崩溃。大量的棺材将返回俄罗斯国内，因为游击战无法停止。民众的情绪将继续恶化。而在2024年，将会有选举。

普京先生的解决方案可能是什么？这将是另一次 "特别行动"。摩尔多瓦太小了，所以可能会在波罗的海国家或波兰进行。除非普京先生在乌克兰上空被阻止，否则北约将不得不在地面上与他作战。

至于核武器，这位俄罗斯总统有一种狂躁的心理。他痴迷于成为像斯大林一样的历史人物。他在自己的克里姆林宫门前放置了俄罗斯的创造者--弗拉基米尔王子的巨大雕像。但他没有自杀倾向，否则他就不会坐在20英尺长的桌子的另一端与他的亲信们在一起。他只有在认为不会有反应的情况下才会使用核武器。但北约拒绝在乌克兰上空设立禁飞区的每一天，他的自信心都在增强。

我不希望我的国家在全球冲突中面对北约，但试图与一个暴徒交谈而不向他展示你的力量，恰恰导致了这一点。■

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米哈伊尔-霍多尔科夫斯基是一名流亡的俄罗斯商人。